Fantasy basketball: Which first-round picks have the most potential?

The NBA Draft is where the future becomes the present in the league, and it’s not always the players at the top of the draft that make the most immediate impact.

Last season, everyone knew that Victor Wembanyama of France was going to be selected No. 1 overall to the San Antonio Spurs. He was the most anticipated draft prospect since LeBron James and entered the season with astronomical expectations.

This year’s draft was different. There was no consensus top player, but instead a plethora of players that could emerge as the top of the 2024 class. A French player did go No. 1 overall as the Atlanta Hawks drafted wing Zaccharie Risacher with the top pick. In fact, four French players went in the first round, including No. 2 overall pick Alex Sarr and No. 6 overall pick Tidjane Salaun.

Outside of the French connection, there are storylines galore from those drafted on Wednesday and any number of players that could play impact minutes as rookies. Here’s who can contribute to fantasy basketball rosters and slot into the Rookie of the Year race this season:

Impact lottery picks

Zaccharie Risacher, SF, Atlanta Hawks

Risacher is a long, versatile wing measuring out at 6-foot-10 with an 8-foot-10 standing reach. He played primarily as a 3-and-D wing in the French League last season on the No. 1-ranked defense in the EuroCup. He was frequently tasked with guarding any position on the court. Risacher also thrives in transition on offense. He had 47 dunks last season and shot just under 40% from 3-point range. He needs to work on shot creation and strength (he only weighs 196 pounds) to reach his full potential, but he could slot in as the Hawks’ starting forward from Day 1.

Fantasy spin: While Risacher has upside as the top pick in the draft, his history doesn’t suggest that huge fantasy numbers are likely as a rookie. I would consider drafting him in the later rounds, around pick 100 or later, primarily as an upside flier.

Alex Sarr, PF/C, Washington Wizards

Sarr might have the most upside in this draft. A 7-foot, athletic big man with an impressive 9-foot-2 standing reach, Sarr has great mobility for his size with the quickness and explosive leaping ability to project as an elite rim protector and switch defender. He is characterized as a “unicorn” big man with the versatility to play inside and out on both offense and defense. Sarr has drawn comps to Kristaps Porzingis on offense and Nic Claxton on defense. In addition to his ability to finish athletically around the rim, Sarr also made 22 3-pointers last season and is a solid passer off short rolls, giving him considerable upside. Sarr will be the centerpiece of the Wizards’ rebuilding effort and while his game still needs polishing and development, he could be Washington’s starting center to open the season.

Fantasy spin: Sarr could have legit double-double upside with high field goal percentage, solid defensive numbers and even some 3-pointers as a rookie on a Wizards team that could give him as many minutes as he can stand. He also could miss those marks as he goes through development growing pains. I split the difference to project him as a top-75 FBA draft prospect, worth consideration as high as the sixth round in deep leagues based on upside potential.

Reed Sheppard, SG, Houston Rockets

Sheppard is the consensus best shooter in this draft class, coming off a season where he shot 52% from behind the arc for the Kentucky Wildcats. He is sneakily athletic, tying the highest max-vertical leap at the NBA combine (42 inches), has strong scoring upside at all three levels and is a solid passer as well. However, he could have trouble getting impact minutes as a rookie on a Rockets squad with a deep, talented set of perimeter players already on roster.

Fantasy spin: Some believe Sheppard will be the best player in this draft class. While I do believe he has that long-term upside, the quality depth of the Rockets works against Sheppard’s FBA draft upside this season. Unless the summer and preseason suggest he’s likely to get near starter minutes, I would consider Sheppard either a last-round flier or a don’t-draft-but-keep-an-eye-on FBA draft prospect.

Stephon Castle, PG/SG, San Antonio Spurs

Castle will be an exciting prospect to watch this season because of his skillset and the team that drafted him. The Big East Freshman of the Year led all first-year players in the conference in points, rebounds and assists per game. But his most pro-ready trait is his defense. ESPN’s Jay Bilascompared the 6-foot-6 Castle to “a shutdown corner in football” and called him “a bigger Jrue Holiday“. Castle joins Wembanyama as a primary building block for the Spurs and has great upside on both sides of the court. He needs to improve his shooting to reach his full potential, but the Spurs desperately need a lead guard and he could be their Day 1 starter even while his game matures.

Fantasy spin: Castle has the skills, winning pedigree and defensive mindset to fit right into the lineup for a Gregg Popovich squad that desperately needs a lead guard for both the present and future. He could be a plus multi-category contributor with strong defensive numbers as a rookie, and I would project him in the range between picks 75 and 100.

Ron Holland II, SF, Detroit Pistons

Pistons fans might have déjà vu from this pick. Detroit drafted Ausar Thompson with the No. 5 pick last year, a 6-foot-7, hyper-athletic wing that projected as a strong two-way player as a driver/slasher on offense and a defender on defense. Holland is very similar to Thompson in that he is an above-the-rim finisher, an outstanding athlete with great size and has the tools to be a great defender. Holland was ESPN’s No. 2 ranked recruitin high school before choosing to play in the G-league last season. He averaged nearly 20 PPG, seven boards, just over three assists and almost 2.2 steals before a thumb injury ended his season in January. Holland’s defense and scoring upside could earn him starting minutes out the gate, despite his young age (18 years old). Holland and Thompson might even be able to play together as starters in the frontcourt, forming a formidable defensive duo on the wing to support the offensive prowess of Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey.

Fantasy spin: Hollard’s rookie projections as of draft night look eerily similar to Thompson’s last season. Those projections would land him just outside of the top-100 of FBA prospects, worthy of a late-round flier.

Tidjane Salaun, F, Charlotte Hornets

Salaun is an upside pick at forward for the Hornets. He is one of the youngest players in this draft class, is 6-foot-10 with a 7-foot-2 wingspan and 9-foot-2 standing reach. He has excellent size, versatility and defensive energy with a high motor and intensity. He played a significant role for a playoff team in France last season as a 3-and-D forward, but needs to work on his ball-handling and ability to create. Salaun could develop into a future cornerstone on a young, rebuilding Charlotte team.

Fantasy spin: Salaun was picked based on his long-term upside more than the expectation of immediate contribution. On the other hand, the Hornets are young and rebuilding so it’s possible he gets minutes early. I look forward to seeing him play live at the Summer League to refine my estimate, but for now I would consider him a don’t-draft-but-keep-an-eye-on FBA draft prospect.

Donovan Clingan, C, Portland Trail Blazers

Clingan was the centerpiece for the back-to-back NCAA champion Connecticut Huskies. He is 7-foot-2 with a 7-foot-6 wingspan, and arguably is the best defensive big man in the draft. He averaged 13 PPG on 64% FG, 7.4 RPG and 2.5 BPG last season. While defense is expected to be his calling card in the pros, it isn’t clear how the Trail Blazers plan to deploy him this season with Deandre Ayton currently starting in the frontcourt. Clingan is a mature prospect, so if the Trail Blazers do find a way to get minutes for him, he could contribute statistically right out of the gate.

Fantasy spin: Clingan has the game right now to be a plus rebounder and defender, as well as a low-volume double-digit scorer on great field goal percentage… if he gets starter minutes. But that seems unlikely if Ayton is still on the roster. So, until the summer plays out and we know what the Trail Blazers’ roster will look like, I have Clingan as a don’t-draft-but-keep-an-eye-on FBA draft prospect

Rob Dillingham, PG, Minnesota Timberwolves

Dillingham was considered the best isolation player in college basketball last season. He’s small at only 6-foot-1 with a 6-foot-3 wingspan, but is shifty, an excellent ball-handler, a good passer and a great shot maker. Dillingham averaged 15.2 PPG in only 23 MPG last season at Kentucky. He drew comparisons to Cleveland Cavaliers guard Darius Garland ahead of the draft and has shown the ability to score in a hurry. The Timberwolves traded up to the No. 8 pick to get him and pair him in the backcourt with Anthony Edwards. Dillingham could fill a huge need for the Timberwolves as a lead guard and be the secondary shot creator Minnesota sorely lacked last season. Mike Conley is the incumbent point guard, but he’s getting older, and Dillingham could eventually replace him. In the meantime, Dillingham has already proved in college that he could be extremely productive as a sixth man off the bench.

Fantasy spin: Dillingham has sixth man microwave scorer upside right off the bat, a role where he could land among the leading scorers and 3-point shooters among rookies. The TImberwolves have a big need for his skillset, both in the second unit and in crunchtime lineups. I’d put Dillingham just outside the top-100 as an FBA draft prospect, worthy of late round upside flier draft status.

Zach Edey, C, Memphis Grizzlies

Edey is the two-time NCAA Player of the Year, as well as being the tallest player in this year’s draft. Standing at 7-foot-3 inches with a 7-foot-10 wingspan, weighing 299 pounds, Edey is more mountain than man. But he improved his footwork and mobility dramatically each season in college, and now projects to potentially start at center for the Grizzlies. Edey averaged 25.2 PPG on 62 FG% last season, with 12.2 RPG and 2.2 BPG. He’s still relatively new to basketball, having played the sport for only six years, but he could be both an elite rim protector on defense and a strong finisher around the rim on offense. Edey’s ceiling will only increases as he continues to develop his game in the pros.

Fantasy spin: If Edey starts, he has upside to be a nightly threat for double-doubles with strong percentages and blocked shot numbers. For now, I’d rank him right around 100 in the FBA draft rankings, with upside to sneak into the late-middle rounds of the draft.

Cody Williams, wing, Utah Jazz

Williams is the younger brother of Oklahoma City Thunder forward Jalen Williams. He will look to follow in his brother’s footsteps to put together an All- Rookie first season. Williams has great size for a wing at just over 6-foot-6. He has got great range off the catch-and-shoot, is an efficient scorer with good court vision and uses his size to play strong defense. Williams isn’t a great rebounder, needs to get stronger and also needs to improve his pull-up game off the dribble. On the plus side, he has a high ceiling with a lot of upside at only 19 years old. Williams is a naturally gifted scorer with a great handle and quick first step. He will have to work his way into the Jazz rotation, but they are a young team that is still rebuilding. Expect Williams challenge for starting minutes at some point this season.

Fantasy spin: Williams’ draft night upside would be similar to his brother Jalen’s, who was a top-75 FBA producer as a rookie on his way to finishing second in the Rookie of the Year race. Those would be lofty expectations for a 10th pick, though, so I’d currently temper it to somewhere in the 100-125 band of FBA projections and worthy of a late-round flier.

Matas Buzelis, wing, Chicago Bulls

Buzelis is a forward with excellent size at 6-foot-9, though he has a relatively short wingspan for his height at only 6-foot-10. He was a two-time Gatorade player of the year in high school and the No. 5 ranked player out of high school. Buzelis averaged 14.1 PPG, 6.6 RPG and 1.9 BPG for the G League Ignite last season. He is an incredible athlete and though he only hit 27% of his 3-pointers last season he shot 43% from behind the arc as a high school senior. Buzelis was drafted by his home team and could earn starter minutes early on a Bulls squad where DeMar DeRozan spent time at power forward last season.

Fantasy spin: Buzelis has a great pedigree, a history of producing at every level and a game that is already NBA ready. The Bulls need forwards with size, and he has a chance to earn a starting job. I look forward to seeing him play in the Summer League, but for now I might consider him just inside the top-100 of FBA draft boards and worth consideration in the late-middle rounds of the draft.

Other picks that caught my attention

Dalton Knecht, wing, Los Angeles Lakers: Knecht was a first team AP All American and SEC Player of the Year last season who averaged 21.7 PPG on 46 FG% and 40 3P% along with 4.9 RPG. He was considered a high-lottery prospect ahead of the draft, but reportedly fell to the No. 17 pick because of his age (23 years old). Conversely, his age is a positive for a Lakers squad that is looking to win right now and desperately needs more shooting. Knecht one of the best scorers in this draft class and can get buckets at all three levels. He could earn significant minutes as part of the Lakers rotation, even as a rookie.

Terrence Shannon Jr., wing, Minnesota Timberwolves

Shannon is a 6-foot-6 wing who is also 23 years old with an NBA body and a physical style of play. The athletic lefty is a solid defender but is best known for his offense. He averaged 23.0 PPG on 48 FG%, 4.0 RPG and 2.3 APG last season. He thrives in transition and was considered a lottery talent but dealt with off-court issuesthat left him suspended for a chunk of last season. Back on the court, he looks to provide strong wing depth to a Timberwolves squad that is in win-now mode after a run to Western Conference Finals last season.

Isaiah Collier, G, Utah Jazz

Collier was the No. 1 ranked player in the 2023 ESPN 100 coming out of high school but had a down season with the USC Trojans because of numerous injuries. He is a combo guard with good court vision and an aggressive playmaker that can get into the paint and finish strong. While there are questions with his decision-making and his limited ability as a shooter, he still averaged 16.4 PPG on 49 FG% with 4.3 APG during his freshman year with the Trojans. There was a time when some thought he could be the top pick in this year’s draft, but instead he slid to the No. 29 pick. The Jazz are a young team, and Collier has the upside to challenge for their starting point guard slot as soon as this season.