Fleur de Lis fair odds: Shotgun Hottie can repeat at a fair price

The Grade 2 Fleur de Lis at Churchill Downs on Saturday looks to be a classic case of letting the board dictate your play.

The Horse Racing Nation projected odds line for the 1 1/8-mile race for older females on Saturday at Churchill Downs has Shotgun Hottie favored over Scylla, with Xigera the 12-1 co-fifth choice of six. Mike Battaglia’s morning line has Scylla the overwhelming 6-5 choice with Shotgun Hottie 4-1 second choice and Xigera the 9-2 third choice.

I cannot be a homer here because I actually agree with Battaglia more than I do HRN. Scylla just has that name recognition locally, having won a race on Kentucky Derby day at 1-2 and then the Shawnee Stakes (G3) at 6-5. It’s hard to see her not taking money again given the cash that came in on those two races, which she won by a combined 10 1/4 lengths.

This is great news for my opinion, which is that Shotgun Hottie is the most likely winner. Her Allaire du Pont victory on Preakness Stakes eve at Pimlico was as fast as any of these fillies and mares has run based on Ragozin Figures. Of course, a repeat is never guaranteed, but she is better than 4-1 to run back to that number or better, which likely wins this.

Xigera is a wildcard. I love her at the HRN price but am lukewarm at taking a similar price to my top pick. The good news from a pick N perspective is that the Fleur de Lis starts the Pick 5, so we’ll have a good idea of how this race will be bet and can use horses accordingly.