Italy 1 – Croatia 1: Initial reaction and random observations

For nearly 97 minutes Monday night, Italy were held scoreless by a Croatia side that had allowed five goals in their first two Euro 2024 group stage games. Italy probably should have had a lead if not for a pair of fantastic saves from Croatia keeper Dominik Livakovic, but found themselves behind because their own keeper couldn’t be a shining star amongst a pile of slop for a third time within a minute.

Then, in the eighth minute of stoppage time, Riccardo Calafiori and all of his aura went on a coast-to-coast run that will certainly be talked about a lot over the next day or two.

Then Mattia Zaccagni nearly two decades later, did his best Alessandro Del Piero imitation at the same field that sent Italy to the World Cup final.

Of course, that stakes were not the same as that night that sent the Azzurri to Berlin in 2006. But, at the same time, Zaccagni’s bender off just a freakishly good run and assist from Calafiori allowed Italy to avoid disaster and risk crashing out of another major tournament. Instead of basically leaving their qualification for the knockout rounds up to somebody else and trying to be one of the “better” third-place teams, Italy’s 1-1 draw with Croatia was the bare minimum needed to advance into the round of 16.

Del Piero’s goal spot got Italy to Berlin in 2006.

And, 18 years later, Zaccagni’s goal from nearly the same got Italy to Berlin in 2024.

But for the reigning European champions, just because they advanced to the knockout rounds, it doesn’t mean that everything is OK. Or, honestly, anywhere close to OK.

The loss to Spain and the Croatia draw have shown very clearly that this Italy squad has major shortcomings and will have to get the same kind of magic moments out of nowhere to bail out the previous extended period of ineffectiveness. Italy were solid in the first half, but it was the second half in which Croatia took control, won a penalty, saw Gigio Donnarumma save that same PK attempt from Luka Modric only to see Modric score about 35 seconds later. It was a bad one — and for much of the time remaining you didn’t think Italy was going to break through.

It was bad. And especially against a Croatia side that has look far from its best during its first two group stage games.

Yet there Italy was, struggling to do much of anything outside of their two very good scoring chances that Livakovic was somehow able to save. (They were really, really good saves, you guys. Get mad about the inability to finish, but they were truly top-shelf saves.)

But leave it to a shot that had an xG of all about 0.07 to be the thing that got Italy through.

Italy’s stay at the Euros won’t be much longer if they continue to play like this. It doesn’t matter if it’s Switzerland, England or somebody else down the road. Luciano Spalletti and his Italy team are walking a fine line between doing just enough to advance and looking pretty sluggish and unable to do much of anything right.

Wonder where I’ve heard that before around here …

RANDOM THOUGHTS AND OBSERVATIONS

• Never in doubt, right? Yep, never ever in doubt.
• (Except for about 30 seconds before Calafiori went on that glorious run. It was very much in doubt and looking incredibly grim. So yeah, kinda-sorta maybe not totally something we expected the entire time no matter how many attackers Spalletti threw on.)
• Those first 20 or so minutes felt like they were moving at a snail’s pace. Just absolutely no kind of juice at all to open things up.
• The man can retire, but the celebrations will remain just as good while he’s on the sideline. If you don’t know who I’m talking about, here’s photo evidence of said wonderful man and his celebrations after Italy’s goal:

• You ready for a hot take? Here goes nothin’, folks …
• Riccardo Calafiori is pretty dang good and I would like Juventus to sign him.
• You know what sucks? Calafiori falling victim to this idiotic rule that UEFA has that it takes all of two yellows in the group stage to reach suspension. That means Calafiori won’t be playing this weekend — which is awful considering how good he has been so far this tournament.
• Seriously, though, Calafiori had the game-tying assist, won all of his aerial duels, completed 93% of his passes, was not dribbled past the entire night and created more chances than any other player. Remember, he is technically a center back, but he is providing so much more than just sound defense.
• Donnarumma and Calafiori really are the only Italy players who are playing well in this tournament.
• Maybe start Federico Chiesa next time? I dunno, just an idea.
• It was nice to Nicolo Fagioli get some minutes and do more than some of Italy’s other midfielders. Maybe in the next round that means he should start. Because, honestly, it’s not like Italy’s midfield can really get more ineffective than it has been the last two games. Sure, Jorginho’s numbers were better than against Spain, but things still weren’t very good.
• Alessandro Bastoni’s defending on Croatia’s goal … yikes.
• Giovanni Di Lorenzo and Federico Di Marco lost possession so … many … times. A combined 24 times between the two of them! That sure is a lot!
• Luka Modric became the oldest player to ever score at the Euros and I feel like he will still be able to be a difference maker four years from now when he’s in his early 40s. What a wonderful player and a wonderful man.
• Italy’s only shot on goal came in the 98th minute on the game-tying goal. That’s not great.
• Maybe things will get better in the round of 16. Then again, I thought that it couldn’t get much all that worse than how things were against Spain and Italy needed a last-second goal to ensure that they were moving on to the knockout rounds. Not great IMHO.