What I’m hearing about McGroarty, Ehlers and the Jets as draft week begins

The Winnipeg Jets can’t seem to approach an offseason without at least a little bit of player uncertainty. This year is no different: Nikolaj Ehlers is in play via trade and the Jets need to sign Brenden Dillon, Dylan DeMelo or their replacements and decide if they should bring back Sean Monahan or find a suitable solution at second-line centre.

None of those items constitute a surprise, though. Instead, it’s 2022 first-round pick Rutger McGroarty’s desire to begin his NHL career outside the Jets organization that’s thrown the summer into disarray — and just in time for NHL draft week in Las Vegas.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. A clear-eyed accounting of Kevin Cheveldayoff’s history reveals several examples of success navigating circumstances more complex than the ones in front of him today.

In the 2022 draft, the Jets took McGroarty at No. 14 and Brad Lambert at 30. They followed Lambert with Elias Salomonsson in the second round and Salomonsson has developed into Winnipeg’s top defensive prospect. Lambert, Salomonsson, Thomas Milic and roster player Morgan Barron are all part of the organization because of Cheveldayoff’s work trading Andrew Copp, who hadn’t planned to re-sign in Winnipeg as a UFA.

Gabriel Vilardi, Alex Iafallo, Rasmus Kupari and whichever prospect the Jets take at No. 37 will be a part of the organization because of Cheveldayoff’s work moving PL Dubois under plenty of duress.

The Jets have the tools to handle the problems they’re dealing with now.

What are they going to do about it? Here’s what I’m hearing.

The McGroarty situation

Winnipeg’s development program is going to come under fire the moment McGroarty is traded.

I don’t think this is a Cheveldayoff issue so much as the Jets have been passed in terms of the resources and care they provide for prospects as they develop. Winnipeg isn’t a high-profile UFA destination and Cheveldayoff’s success managing key trades has kept the Jets competitive in recent years; however, it was the team’s success at the draft table that first helped Winnipeg emerge as a Stanley Cup contender in 2018.

The Jets need high-end youth outperforming their cap hits, whether on their first or second contracts. McGroarty could have become that, depending on his ability to adapt his dominant collegiate game to the professional ranks. Instead, the relationship between player and club doesn’t appear reparable at this time. Thus Winnipeg’s biggest hope lies in getting strong value from McGroarty via trade.

McGroarty is a blue-chip prospect who’s held in great esteem around the NHL after finishing seventh in NCAA scoring as a sophomore and returning from a gruesome injury to captain Team USA to gold at the world juniors. He’s also a recent first-round pick who has spent two years progressing like you’d hope the No. 14 pick would progress. At 20, his future is far from known but his first two post-draft years have been a success. That has value.

At the moment, Winnipeg doesn’t have a first-round pick in 2024. McGroarty could have appeal to any team that has a first-round pick to spare, including the teams who have multiple first-round picks:

• San Jose (Nos. 1 and 14)
• Chicago (Nos. 2 and 18)
• Anaheim (Nos. 3 and 31 or 32, depending on Edmonton’s final placement)
• Montreal (Nos. 5 and 26)
• Ottawa (Nos. 7 and 25)
• Calgary (Nos. 9 and 28)
• Philadelphia (Nos. 12 and 31 or 32, depending on Florida’s final placement)

Those aren’t the only teams that could — or should — have interest in McGroarty, nor is it a guarantee that Winnipeg is seeking draft capital in exchange. McGroarty should be able to return an established player that can help the Jets

Still, it’s easy to understand the appeal of picks at 14th or higher. It seems unlikely that a McGroarty-for-pick trade would be instantly celebrated by fans, given the excitement that had developed from his 2023 development camp to now.

And what about Ehlers?

I’ve previously assumed Ehlers would be the Jets’ one big-ticket trade to make prior to the draft. I’m under the impression that Ehlers isn’t likely to sign in Winnipeg when his contract is up in 2025 and, while I don’t think there’s pressure, demands or restrictions beyond his 10-team no-trade list, I’ve expected the Jets to act expediently to get value from Ehlers this summer.

McGroarty’s situation doesn’t automatically mean an Ehlers trade is delayed. I wonder if Cheveldayoff’s success trading Copp as a midseason pending UFA makes it more likely that he’s willing to risk starting the season with Ehlers on the roster but without Ehlers signed to an extension. However, a league source indicated that as draft week begins, Ehlers’ name is still very much out there.

If a trade does materialize, there are some natural fits available that could entice the Jets.

Hurricanes forward Martin Necas is a 25-year-old restricted free agent who has scored at 57 points per 82 game pace over his past three seasons. Ehlers is 28 and has scored more often than that, posting 67 points per 82 games while receiving less ice time. Adding Necas would help Winnipeg absorb Ehlers’ loss but finding the right price could be difficult, given Necas’ RFA status compared to Ehlers’ 2025 UFA rights. Necas is eligible for arbitration this summer and his earliest UFA eligibility is in 2026.

Senators defenceman Jakob Chychrun would provide a substantial upgrade to Winnipeg’s blue line. Chychrun is like Ehlers in that he’s one year away from UFA rights while providing a lot of value relative to his position.

If the Jets move Ehlers and McGroarty, I can’t imagine both of them going for future assets like draft picks and prospects. The Jets are in a competitive window and Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck will all be 30 or older by the end of next season. Winnipeg will want to win its next playoff round before those key veterans slow down.

The draft isn’t a hard and fixed deadline for determining Ehlers’ future, though, no matter what I interpret about the Jets’ plans.

Sean Monahan proved to be a good fit with the Jets after being acquired from Montreal. (Sergei Belski / USA Today)

Will Monahan re-sign?

I’m under the impression that Monahan is considering his options as July 1 approaches, including the possibility of a return to Winnipeg. Evolving Hockey projects a three-year, $5.2 million AAV for Monahan; I’d think of it as a decent stopgap for the Jets if the 29-year-old is retained.

As I wrote earlier this month, Monahan is slow by NHL standards, limiting his rush offence and hurting his transition defence. His hands are still good, though. Monahan has scored 30 or more goals three times, cleared 60 points four times and scored at a 29-goal, 66-point pace last season. He’s great at faceoffs and excels in the bumper position on the power play. Against Colorado, when most Jets with a breakout attempt on their mind were overwhelmed by the Avalanche’s speed, Monahan kept his wits about him and generated zone exits. Those exits didn’t add up to much, with Monahan generating a single assist in five games, but his read of the game stood out at a time when Winnipeg was overwhelmed.

If Monahan returns beyond three years or too far beyond $5 million, one begins to wonder about the Jets’ commitment to a slower player as he approaches the wrong side of 30. Scheifele, Monahan and Adam Lowry have a diverse collection of skills but would still represent an average or below average centre trio.

Don’t expect a reunion with Tyler Toffoli (not that you were), but Cole Perfetti, Lambert and Ehlers if he is retained could all be options on Monahan’s wing. If Monahan is not signed, then Perfetti could be reunited with Vladislav Namestnikov in a duo that largely worked or Winnipeg could turn to the market for other options. I think most of Chandler Stephenson’s value comes from his work alongside Mark Stone, but he won’t be the only option.

The Jets were interested in Elias Lindholm at the trade deadline; I think a UFA contract is wishful but it’s clear that Lindholm is headed to the market after finishing last with Vancouver.

Dillon and DeMelo: Who comes back?

I expect that Dillon and DeMelo are in similar positions to Monahan — aware of the Jets’ contract offer and curious to see what July 1 brings them. Dillon expressed some frustration during his exit interview — he seemed to wish that the Jets had locked him up long before July 1 — but I expect he’ll have lots of suitors, including his hometown Canucks.

Evolving Hockey projects two years at close to a $3 million AAV for Dillon, which would be a team-friendly deal. He has a unique blend of physicality, positional play and enough puck skill to keep up with the modern game, but turns 34 in November. The projection for DeMelo is more expensive — four years at $4.9 million per — and, while I’m leery about that figure, DeMelo scored two fewer points than Neal Pionk did last season while providing superior defence. The Jets have leaned on him heavily and he became a 30-point-per-82-game player under Rick Bowness and Scott Arniel. He’s earned a substantial raise from the $3 million he made last season.

If the roster shuffle leaves the Jets without enough right-handed defencemen to provide cover, one move I wonder about is a reunion with Tyler Myers. That would be intriguing from a storytelling perspective; not only does Myers have a long history with Winnipeg but he (and Ben Chiarot) signed for more money elsewhere the last time Winnipeg arrived at its offseason with multiple veteran free-agent defencemen.

The buyout window will open 48 hours after the conclusion of Monday night’s Game 7. If the Jets use it to buy out Nate Schmidt or any other player, they’ll have a clearer sense of their cap space for July 1. Buying out Schmidt would save $3.2 million in cap space next season while costing $1.6 million in cap space in 2025-26.

(Photo of Nikolaj Ehlers: Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)