Should the Braves be shortstop shopping?

There’s really no way around it, Orlando Arcia is having a tough year. For the season, he’s sitting at a 62 wRC+ and 0.3 fWAR, which are obviously both rough numbers to be supporting almost half way through a season, but it’s what he’s done over the last 2 months that really gets scary. Since April 19th, Arcia is running a 29 wRC+ and a -0.7 fWAR. The first set of numbers were bad. That second set of numbers is ghastly. And it’s always good to remind people, fWAR uses Baseball Savant’s Outs Above Average for the defensive component of its WAR calculation. So that -0.7 fWAR over the last 60+ games has Arcia’s defensive value factored in.

The reason it’s so low is because of that 29 wRC+ over 250+ plate appearances. Fans have a tendency to group all “bad offense’ together. That’s where things like “You can live with his bad offense because of his good defense” come from. But just like good offense has levels, a 115 wRC+ and a 180 wRC+ are not the same, bad offense has levels. If Arcia was running a 75 wRC+ over the last 2 months, then yes, his good defense would probably be covering up his bad offense. He wouldn’t be a negative WAR player. But he’s not running a 75 wRC+ over the last 2 months. He’s running a 29 wRC+. That’s not bad offense. That’s atrocious offense. Like, unbelievably bad. That’s well below pitcher-level hitting. Just for reference, Max Fried had a career 47 wRC+ as a hitter before the full-time DH was implemented. Arcia is at a 29 for more than ¹⁄₃ of the season.

And I realize not everyone is analytically inclined so for more context, a 29 wRC+ translates to a .166/.194./.284 triple-slash line, or a .478 OPS. And for league wide context, that 29 wRC+ is far and away the worst offense production by any qualified hitter in baseball. The next worst over that stretch is the 54 wRC+ from San Francisco’s Mitch Haniger. Arcia is 25 points of wRC+ worse than the second worst guy in the sport. There’s no amount of great defense that could cover that up. Prime Ozzie Smith or Andruw Jones would be overall negative players with that type of offensive production.

So that’s the problem. The Braves’ shortstop, even with factoring in his defense, has arguably been the worst player in baseball the last 2 months. So should the Braves be shopping for a new one?

Even with the evidence above, there will be people who say no. The general idea being good defense at shortstop covers up any amount of bad offense, regardless of the depths it drops to. I don’t necessarily subscribe to that way of thinking but plenty do. Shortstop is one of the Big-3 defensive positions in baseball, next to centerfield and catcher, and being good defensively there is crucial. But it’s also a zero-sum game. Costing your team runs with the bat is the same as costing your team runs with the glove. And saving runs with your glove is only a net positive as long you aren’t costing your team more runs with your bat. And with Arcia, I think there’s an objective argument we’ve long passed that threshold.

There’s also the argument that because Arcia makes very, very little money, it’s not that big a deal he’s been bad, he’s still “worth his contract.” My problem with that argument is it supposes any amount of bad play can be tolerable as long as the price is cheap enough. By that logic, the best thing to do is call up a bunch of Triple-A players up and fill up your roster with them since they make league minimum. You quickly realize the fallacy in that, because teams aren’t just trying to be hyper-efficient with every dollar they spend, they’re trying to win. And giving bad players a bunch of playing time just because they’re cheap doesn’t help winning.

Another factor in this who do you go get? Shortstops are famously hard to acquire, simply because when teams get a good one, they don’t usually have any interest in trading them. Bo Bichette of the Blue Jays is probably the most interesting name on the potential market. The Blue Jays aren’t very good and could be sellers, Bichette only has 1.5 years of control remaining, and Toronto may be looking to get some longer term assets in exchange for a player who’s on his way out the door anyway. The rub is Bichette is having easily his worst year as a big-leaguer and Toronto may not want to sell low. There are some indicators that some of his bad numbers are more because of bad luck than anything else and therefore it’s a reasonable bet better days are ahead. But how much is the appropriate amount to bet on that? If he’s available and reasonably priced, the Braves should probably be fairly aggressive in trying to make that happen, but it certainly isn’t likely.

And if he’s not an option, for whatever reason, the market dries up quick. Again, good teams aren’t giving you their shortstop and most bad teams don’t have good shortstops. And even if they do, they want to build around them, not sell them off. Much like the Royals have done with Bobby Witt Jr.

So maybe you focus on outfield help and an extra starter or bullpen help, all positions usually much more available on the open market and live with whatever Arcia gives you. Maybe Zach Short gets a little more time over there, he did decently well spelling for Austin Riley. Or maybe Nacho Alvarez, one of the Braves better prospects, gets called up from Triple-A and given a shot. Most people who cover the minors agree he’s probably not fully ready for that, but the Braves are famously ultra aggressive with prospects. And the bar to clear Arcia isn’t exactly high.

It’s a fascinating situation.

The Braves could use an upgrade but how and where to go about doing that is where it gets tough. And it’s very possible they’ll prioritize other areas to improve the team at the trade deadline. We’ll all find out together.