What Pascal Siakam’s Extension Says About NBA’s New Max-Contract Landscape

For the first time ever, NBA teams are currently allowed to negotiate with their own free agents even though the new league year doesn’t begin until July 1. The NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement included that change, which allows teams to knock out major pieces of free-agent business before the draft.

The Indiana Pacers were the first team to take advantage of this new window Wednesday, as Pascal Siakam agreed to re-sign with them on a four-year, $189.5 million maximum contract, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. Siakam’s return was effectively a foregone conclusion after the Pacers’ surprise run to the Eastern Conference Finals, but the structure of his contract could provide some hints at the leaguewide landscape for max deals moving forward.

Siakam’s contract does not have any player or team options, according to Tony East of Forbes Sports and Locked On Pacers. He and Tyrese Haliburton are now on matching contracts for the next four seasons, although Haliburton’s deal contains a fifth year, too.

It’s unclear whether either Siakam or the Pacers would have liked his contract to span five years as well. There’s reason to believe that both would prefer a slightly shorter-term deal. The Pacers would incur slightly less risk in case things went south, while Siakam could give himself one more chance for a sizable contract after the 2027-28 season.

The NBA’s likely explosive salary-cap growth in the coming years could also convince players to hit the market again sooner. Every contract signed this summer will take up a slightly smaller percentage of the cap every year, even if it contains a full 8% annual raise. Siakam’s extension, which begins at 30% at the salary cap, projects to be only 27.9% of the cap in 2027-28 (assuming 10% annual increases beginning in 2025-26).

His new deal could also add to the growing mountain of evidence that teams aren’t just handing out full five-year max deals willy-nilly anymore.

The Philadelphia 76ers never had a chance to legally offer James Harden a contract before he picked up his player option last offseason and requested a trade. However, Michael Scotto of HoopsHype later wrote, “To my understanding, the best the Sixers would’ve considered was something along the lines of a two-year deal, which would have included a team option, and that type of short-term commitment wasn’t going to appeal to Harden.”

The Sixers traded Harden to the Los Angeles Clippers, who then signed Kawhi Leonard to a three-year, roughly $150 million extension in January. Paul George was widely expected to follow suit, but we’re now less than two weeks from the start of free agency and he has yet to sign an extension even though he’s been eligible for one all year.

According to Justin Russo of Russo Writes, the “general belief” is that the Clippers “won’t go over what they’ve already” given Leonard: a three-year, roughly $150 million contract. The Sixers seem ready to offer him a full four-year, $212.2 million deal if they get a chance to do so in free agency, but contenders rarely have the ability to offer full max deals to external free agents.

MVP candidates should continue to be no-brainer full-max players. In the next few weeks, the Boston Celtics figure to sign Jayson Tatum to a five-year supermax deal worth as much as $315 million. Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic is eligible to sign a five-year supermax deal next summer that could be worth $346 million. Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic and Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo also belong in this tier, and Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander could join them before long.

Those aren’t the only caliber of players who are accustomed to getting max contracts, though. Anyone who makes an All-NBA team typically expects one, and plenty of All-Stars want max or near-max deals, too. If early returns are any indication, former MVP candidates in their mid-30s and players who don’t earn annual All-Star or All-NBA nods are no lock to get full five-year max contracts anymore.

The new CBA contains severe trade and free-agency restrictions for the most expensive rosters in the league, so team-building strategies figure to adjust accordingly in the coming years. Some teams (Boston Celtics, Phoenix Suns) have had varying success after blowing past the new second apron, while others (Clippers, Golden State Warriors) appear fixated on either shedding salary or maintaining long-term flexibility so they can eventually get back below the aprons.

Teams with only one player on a max contract should be able to afford another at some point, but it could be difficult to add a third. Stars have typically opted for the security of a contract extension rather than testing free agency in recent years, and that strategy might become even more popular if two-max builds take hold over Big Threes moving forward.

To be clear: We’re still operating in very small sample sizes here. Kyrie Irving took a three-year, below-max deal with the Mavericks last offseason, but extenuating circumstances (namely off-court distractions) likely contributed to that. George easily could fetch a full four-year max deal this offseason. OG Anunoby might be able to as well if he doesn’t agree to terms with the New York Knicks. And LeBron James should get a max contract until the day he retires.

Still, some teams are seemingly wresting control back from stars by not caving on the full length or full value that those players are eligible to receive on a new contract. If that becomes a leaguewide trend, it figures to change team-building strategies moving forward—and perhaps how stars approach extension talks and free agency, too.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.