NFL writer projects league-leading production for Bills TE Dalton Kincaid

When the Buffalo Bills traded up to select tight end Dalton Kincaid in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft, they did so in hopes that they were landing a needle-mover, a potentially game-wrecking pass-catcher who could ultimately have a Travis Kelce-like impact on the team’s aerial attack.

If one NFL analyst is to be believed, that level of impact could come as soon as his sophomore campaign.

NFL.com writer Bucky Brooks recently constructed an offensive “All-Breakout” team for the 2024 NFL season, compiling a list of young players from around the league whom he feels are poised to impress in the upcoming season. Brooks included the Buffalo pass-catcher as the sole tight end on the list, projecting the 24-year-old to finish the 2024 campaign as the league leader in receptions and yards at his position.

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“With Buffalo poised to routinely utilize “12” personnel, Kincaid could become a household name as a dominant pass catcher over the middle,” Brooks wrote. “Although the second-year pro will share the marquee with fellow tight end Dawson Knox, the 6-foot-4, 240-pounder should thrive as Josh Allen attacks defenses with an inside-out approach that puts the Bills’ TEs in prominent roles. 

“Kincaid took a little bit to get his footing as a rookie, but still finished the season with solid numbers: 73 catches for 673 yards and two scores. And I expect a big jump in production this fall. In fact, I won’t be shocked if he ends up leading all tight ends in receptions and yards in 2024.”

It’s an encouraging (though half-hearted) prediction for Kincaid, whose promising rookie campaign was perhaps overshadowed by the dominance of Detroit Lions rookie tight end Sam LaPorta. Kincaid, though not quite as impactful as the second-team All-Pro, was stellar in his own right, his 673 receiving yards in the 2023 season ranking as the second-highest yardage total ever constructed by a Buffalo tight end (Paul Costa ranks first with 726 yards in 1967).

It’s fair—as Brooks alludes to—to expect a significant jump in production for Kincaid given his projected ascension into a more significant offensive role. The Bills parted ways with stalwart pass-catchers Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis in the offseason, leaving the team with a revamped aerial attack that features Kincaid and third-year wide receiver Khalil Shakir as two of its sole returning contributors. Given the already prominent role Kincaid played last year (he was targeted 91 times), his impact on those opportunities, and the sudden availability of even more targets, it’s fair to expect the tight end to burst onto the scene in the new year.

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Brooks doesn’t provide a number on the type of production he’s expecting from Kincaid, but over the past five seasons, the NFL’s leader in receptions at tight end has averaged 107 catches, while the leader in receiving yards at the position has averaged roughly 1,273 yards. Buffalo has never employed a tight end who has even sniffed that level of production.

Kincaid—as Brooks notes—will have to “share the marquee” with Knox, but this isn’t a particularly major hurdle considering the fact that the sophomore has already firmly supplanted him on the depth chart. Though Knox dealt with injuries throughout the 2023 season, he posted career lows in receptions (22) and yards (186), his dip in production (at least partially) due to the presence and emergence of the then-rookie.

Kincaid emerging as the most productive tight end in football would not only silence any unjustified doubters, but also keep Buffalo’s offense moving as its revamped pass-catcher group adjusts to life in a Joe Brady offense.

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