Division rankings: Turf sprinter Cogburn has path to an Eclipse

This week, I examine a horse I failed to include in last
week’s rankings despite his dominating win in the Grade 1 Jaipur on Belmont Stakes weekend: Cogburn.

Cogburn is a turf sprinter, and these specialists often get
overlooked in various rankings. There is no dedicated category for turf
sprinters. Should they be ranked in the sprinter category, traditionally
reserved for dirt sprinters, or in the turf division, which already has plenty
of competition from the milers and two-turn runners?

Fortunately, we have a recent precedent with Stormy
Liberal, the first pure turf sprinter to ever win an Eclipse. Several
factors contributed to his win in 2018, and he was a deserving recipient of
the award.

As it stands now, 2024 is unfolding in a similar way, and
Cogburn is very much in the turf male Eclipse picture.

Before I take a brief look at Cogburn and what he would need
for Eclipse consideration, here are the latest division rankings.

Older dirt males

1. National Treasure. Dominant in the Met Mile (G1), he moves to the top of this division. Could make the trip back to New York from his home base of California for the Whitney (G1) in August at Saratoga.

2. Señor Buscador. His record this year thus far as been very good. He kicked off the season with a close second-place finish to National Treasure in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) in January. Then he won the Saudi Cup (G1) in February before his Dubai World Cup (G1) third-place finish in March. The focus now is on preparing for the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar in late August, likely making a start in the San Diego Handicap (G2) in late July as a prep.

3. First Mission. Started his season with a ninth-place finish in the Pegasus World Cup but has been impressive in two starts since, winning the Essex (G3) at Oaklawn and the Alysheba (G2) at Churchill Downs. He will take on a few ranked below here in the Stephen Foster (G1) on June 29.

4. Skippylongstocking. The Oaklawn Handicap (G2) winner has won his last two starts, but I can’t say I am very confident he will be one of the best in this division by season’s end. Will run in the Stephen Foster (G1) next, where he will attempt to try to win his first Grade 1 event.

5. Mr Fisk. The recent winner of the Hollywood Gold Cup (G2), he also triumphed in the Californian (G3) in April. Two decades ago, these victories would have made him a strong contender for the Eclipse Award, but today, these races are considered less significant. Unfortunately, he was injured during his Gold Cup win and is unlikely to race again. Nevertheless, he deserves recognition and remains in the top five for now.

Next 5: Saudi Crown, Disarm, Newgate, Kingsbarns, Next

Older dirt females

1. Idiomatic. Although she came up short in the Ogden Phipps (G1) on Belmont weekend, she likely was the best in the race given the trip. Despite the setback, she remains at the top with a significant gap separating her from the horses below.

2. Randomized. Ran a stellar race in the Phipps to upset Idiomatic. Last fall she nearly sprung the upset against that same rival in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. She is 1-for-2 on the season.

3. Sweet Azteca. Won her first graded stakes last out in the Beholder Mile (G1). She is 3-for-4 in her short career.

4. Adare Manor. Another start and another win for this gal. This time she scored in the Santa Margarita (G2) at Santa Anita. Before this win she made a rare appearance outside of her home state of California and won the Apple Blossom (G1) at Oaklawn impressively by more than five lengths. She is now 2-for-3 on the season.

5. Pretty Mischievous. The 3-year-old female Eclipse winner from 2023, she returned in the La Troienne (G1) in May, finishing a respectable third, five lengths behind Idiomatic. In her most recent start, she finished third again, this time losing to Randomized and Idiomatic in the Phipps.

Next 5: Scylla, Free like a Bird, Coffee in Bed, Desert Dawn, Bellamore

3-year-old males

1. Mystik Dan. Ran out of gas in the Belmont, but he still resides here at the top because of what he did in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. He also gets credit in my book for showing up and running, something few of the horses below have done.

2. Sierra Leone. He again ran a stellar race and again failed to run straight in the stretch when finishing third in the Belmont. Would be favored in a race against any horse in his division.

3. Forever Young. With one start in this country, this guy is ranked here even though he was likely the best horse who ran in the Kentucky Derby. Now 5-for-6 on his career, he globetrotted his way to Kentucky with wins this year in two countries already. I think it is a long shot we see him stateside again, but the Breeders’ Cup is a possibility.

4. Muth. Dominated the Arkansas Derby (G1) last out and is now 2-for-2 on the season as he impressed to win going away in the San Vicente (G2) in January. Last season at age 2 he was second best in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and won the American Pharoah (G1) at Santa Anita. Scratched from the Preakness because of a fever.

5. Seize the Grey. Facile winner of the Preakness, he faded to finish seventh in the Belmont. A break is probably in order after running six times already this season.

Next 5: Dornoch, Catching Freedom, Mindframe, Fierceness, Honor Marie

3-year-old females

1. Thorpedo Anna. Dominated again, this time in the Acorn (G1). Before that she dominated a deep Kentucky Oaks (G1) and proved she is the real deal. Now 5-for-6 on her career, she will run next in the CCA Oaks (G1).

2. Leslie’s Rose. The Ashland (G1) winner rebounded from her off-the-board Kentucky Oaks run to finish a distant second in the Acorn.

3. Tarifa. Up the track in the Kentucky Oaks, but perhaps she disliked the off track. Still, with two graded-stakes wins this season, Tarifa stays in the top five here.

4. Sugar Fish. Has come out of no where and dominated the Summertime Oaks (G2) to win by over nine lengths. This gal was coming off an optional claimer win and prior to that broke her maiden in an optional claimer.

5. Nothing Like You. Finished a distant second to Sugar Fish last out in the Summertime Oaks (G2) at Santa Anita. This came after dominating the Santa Anita Oaks (G2), winning by more than seven lengths.  

Next 5: Kinza, Power Squeeze, Regulatory Risk, Just F Y I, Ways and Means.

Turf males

1. Master of The Seas. Won the Maker’s Mark Mile (G1) last out in dominating fashion. He now has three Grade 1 scores from his last four starts in North America. But the problem is he won’t run again until August, so he will fall from this spot. For now, he is up top, but I’m disappointed the connections will bench him for four months and wait until the Aug. 10 Fourstardave (G1) for his next start.

2. Cogburn. I failed to include this guy in the rankings last week, but the more I think about it the more I believe he not only should be ranked, but ranked near the top given the state of this division. He is 2-for-2 this season and last out he scored a win in the Jaipur (G1) in a record time, albeit over an extremely fast surface. Not since Stormy Liberal a few years back has a turf sprinter been ranked this high. Remember, it is possible for a turf sprinter to win an Eclipse in this division as Stormy Liberal did in 2018. Cogburn is very much in this Eclipse race.

3. Measured Time. Dominated the Manhattan (G1) in his first start in this country. It was the first Grade 1 win for this son of Frankel.

4. Program Trading. Disappointed in the Manhattan (G1) when off the board after making his seasonal debut a winning one in the Turf Classic (G1) at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby weekend.

5. Naval Power. This guy is 6-for-9 in his career, and this year he just missed when runner-up in two Grade 1 events stateside, the last being the Turf Classic at Churchill Downs. Won a Group 2 event in Dubai earlier this season.

Next 5: Johannes, Du Jour, Silver Knott, Nation’s Pride, Gold Phoenix

Turf females

1. Didia. Really showed me something by posting a facile win over a very good field in the New York Stakes (G1) last out. She started the season in the Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf (G2) in January with a win and followed that with a third in the Jenny Wiley (G1) in April.

2. Chili Flag. Has won all three of her starts since her loss to Didia in the Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf. She was sensational in the Just a Game (G1) on Belmont weekend.

3. Anisette. Super impressive in her first start of 2024, the Gamely (G1) at Santa Anita on Memorial Day. Since coming to this country last season she is 5-for-7 with four graded-stakes wins. She is likely the best in the west and a serious threat to reach the top of this division later this season.

4. Neecie Marie. Defeated Whitebeam in the Beaugay (G2) earlier this season and then took on the best in the division and ran well when runner-up to Didia in the New York Stakes.

5. Whitebeam. Runner-up in both of her starts this season, she ran well in the Just a Game losing to Chili Flag.

Next 5: War Like Goddess, English Rose, Beautee Cachee, McKulick, Surge Capacity

Male sprinters

1. Skelly. Was stunned last time out in the Aristides at Churchill Downs when runner-up losing by a length to Closethegame Sugar. Previously he dominated the listed Lake Hamilton. Has won nine of his last 11 starts.

2. The Chosen Vron. Won again, this time in the Thor’s Echo Stakes at Santa Anita. This was his fifth straight win since his Breeders’ Cup Sprint loss last fall. His record is remarkable, winning 18 of his 23 career starts. Tops out west in this division, the only question for this guy in 2024 will be whether he can hang with the very best in this division. He will need to run faster for sure, but right now he is on a roll out west.

3. Post Time. Ran a distant second to National Treasure in the Met Mile. Still deserves this top-five ranking here based on his sprint wins.

4. Gun Pilot. Failed as the favorite in the True North (G2) on Belmont Stakes weekend, finishing third. But previously scored his first stakes win in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1), defeating a few ranked below.

5. Baby Yoda. This 6-year-old veteran scored a six-length win in the True North (G2) last time out. This was his first graded-stakes win in his 25-start career.

Next 5: Nakatomi, Happy Jack, Super Chow, Hoist the Gold, Closethegame Sugar

Female sprinters

1. Vahva. Got revenge on Alva Starr in the Derby City Distaff (G1), where she posted a facile two-length win. Previously she was runner-up to Alva Starr in the Madison (G1) at Keeneland in her first start of 2024. Returns this weekend in the Chicago (G3) at Churchill Downs.

2. Alva Starr. Runner-up to Vahva in the Derby City, she should get another shot at her rival this summer at Saratoga. Easy winner of the black-type Rehoboth Beach at Delaware Park last time out.

3. Three Witches. The Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint third-place runner from last season started this season off right with a win in the Santa Monica (G2) at Santa Anita but then disappointed last out in he Derby City, finishing seventh.

4. Society. This gal was fourth in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint and returns this weekend to face the top horse in the division, Vahva, in the Chicago.

5. Accede. Winner of the Bed O’ Roses (G2) last out, this daughter of Into Mischief is now 2-for-2 this season.

Next 5: Flying Connection, Red Carpet Ready, Clearly Unhinged, Honor D Lady, Shidabhuti

Cogburn is very much a player in the turf Eclipse race

In 2018, few could have envisioned a turf sprinter winning an Eclipse
at the start of the season. But as the season progressed without any
standout turf horses, the turf sprinter Stormy Liberal began building an
impressive resume.

After a runner-up finish overseas in the Al Quoz Sprint (G1) in Dubai,
Stormy Liberal ran in the same Jaipur stakes that Cogburn just won, though he finished only sixth. In the second half of 2018, Stormy Liberal gained
momentum, winning four consecutive starts to end his season. He won two
graded-stakes, the Eddie D (G3) at Del Mar and the Breeders’ Cup Turf
Sprint (G1) at Churchill Downs to end his season.

What helped Stormy Liberal’s case was the historically weak turf division
that year, with no single horse winning more than one Grade 1 event. In fact,
12 horses received votes for the turf male Eclipse, with Stormy Liberal
prevailing by 19 votes over Expert Eye.

Now, halfway through 2024, the consensus is that the top two grass horses
are Master of the Seas and Measured Time, both based overseas. Although we might
see them stateside again this year, nothing is guaranteed.

Cogburn has the same number of Grade 1 wins as those two horses: one. He is 2-for-2 this season and last out he scored a win in the Jaipur. Additionally, Cogburn has a growing fan base because he is based in the U.S. and likely will compete more frequently in the coming months. If I had
to guess, Cogburn will run more in the U.S. this season than Measured Time and Master of the Seas combined.

This week, Cogburn resides at No. 2, and I strongly considered moving him to
the top based off of his two dominating graded stakes wins. But there is no rush. He has time to move up if he runs again
soon.