Snake-Drafting Every No. 1 NBA Draft Pick Since LeBron James: Part 1, the Busts

Drafts! Everyone loves ’em. They often carry our offseasons and give fanbases hope. And, fair or not, the guys who get selected at the top of the annual event are forever connected with being taken No. 1 overall—as well as all the pressure and excitement that comes with it.

Roughly a week out from the 2024 NBA draft, the B/R hoops staff got together to reminisce about that group and take a crack at redrafting every No. 1 pick of the last 20 classes. Our goal was to get these guys at their on-court best, so the selection parameters were simple: pick each player based on his peak season.

Our time frame of 2004 to 2023 leaves us just one year shy of LeBron James’ entry into the league—but what sort of suspense would there be at the top of this exercise if we included The King?

Also, much like the All-NBA squads, B/R stand-in general managers Grant Hughes, Dan Favale, Bryan Toporek and Joey Akeley went positionless and took the best player available rather than attempting to form coherent teams.

Since this group tended to be big-man heavy, that avoided unfairly bumping up ball-handlers who otherwise wouldn’t have made it to such a lofty position in the order. When relevant, playoff performances were considered as tiebreakers. Finally, to lean into the fantasy element, we went with a tried-and-true snake draft.

First up are pick Nos. 16-20, a group rife with busts and what-ifs. Check back here each day this week as we reveal five selections every morning, building to Nos. 1-5 on Friday.

Here’s a look at the available No. 1 overall picks since 2004, along with the franchises that drafted them, listed in chronological order:

2004: Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic

2005: Andrew Bogut, Milwaukee Bucks

2006: Andrea Bargnani, Toronto Raptors

2007: Greg Oden, Portland Trail Blazers

2008: Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls

2009: Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers

2010: John Wall, Washington Wizards

2011: Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers

2012: Anthony Davis, New Orleans Hornets/Pelicans

2013: Anthony Bennett, Cleveland Cavaliers

2014: Andrew Wiggins, Cleveland Cavaliers

2015: Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves

2016: Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers

2017: Markelle Fultz, Philadelphia 76ers

2018: Deandre Ayton, Phoenix Suns

2019: Zion Williamson, New Orleans Pelicans

2020: Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves

2021: Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons

2022: Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic

2023: Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs

Peak season: 2021-22

Peak season stats: 17.2 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 2.2 3PG, 46.6 FG%, 15.0 PER, 0.4 BPM, .105 WS/48

The player whom I badly wanted got taken just before this pick, which elicited profanity from me in the moment. I won’t apologize.

The consolation: landing Wiggins this late still felt like a heist.

Sure, his career body of work leaves plenty to be desired, and Wiggins may still go down as one of the more frustrating top picks in recent memory. But none of that takes away from his incredible run in 2021-22, in which he averaged 17.2 points per game, made the only All-Star appearance of his career, shot 39.3 percent from deep and was arguably the second-best player in a Finals series that included Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

Nobody before or since has guarded Luka Dončić as effectively as Wiggins did in that year’s Western Conference Finals, and the same could probably be said for the job he did on Tatum. Opinions may have differed on who was the best wing defender in the league at the time, but it’s difficult to imagine anyone locking down elite opponents quite like Wiggins did.

If we’re talking pure peaks and valuing excellence at the absolute highest level of competition, you could argue Wiggins’ work during the Warriors’ title run exceeds anything we’ve seen from all but a couple of players in this entire exercise.

And yes, I’m aware my Warriors bias is showing. Again, no apologies.

—Hughes

Peak season: 2009-10

Peak season stats: 11.1 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 2.3 BPG, 60.5 FG%, 23.1 PER, 3.5 BPM, .214 WS/48

I suspect all of us went into the draft knowing who the last four picks would be. In that sense, I lucked out in getting the first choice among Greg Oden, Markelle Fultz, Andrea Bargnani and Anthony Bennett. At least I’d get to decide which of the final four I could stomach putting on my made-up roster.

Oden’s 2009-10 season lasted just 21 games and, well…that was enough. In just 23.9 minutes per contest, he averaged 11.1 points, 8.5 rebounds and 2.3 blocks, flashing the overpowering physicality and surprising agility that got him drafted ahead of Kevin Durant in real life. The sample is vanishingly small, but Oden’s Portland Trail Blazers were 8.6 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor that season, a figure that ranked in the 94th percentile among all players.

Oden also had a positive impact over a much longer stretch of 61 games in 2008-09, but his per-minute production was superior in the year I’m choosing.

Honestly, I’m just glad I didn’t get stuck with Bargnani, Fultz or Bennett, none of whom has ever had a season in which they made positive impacts on their team’s bottom line like Oden did in 2009-10.

—Hughes

Peak season: 2022-23

Peak season stats: 14.0 PPG, 5.7 APG, 3.9 RPG, 1.5 SPG, 51.4 FG%, 16.6 PER, 0.5 BPM, .100 WS/48

In his peak season, Markelle Fultz was a slightly above-average NBA player, as stats like PER and BPM confirm.

It goes without saying that peak is disappointing for a No. 1 pick. But it does explain why he was taken over Andrea Bargnani in this exercise.

Bargnani averaged 21.4 points per game in his peak season, but his BPM (-1.4) was considerably worse than Fultz’s, and that passes the eye test. Bargnani was a defensive sieve and a black hole on offense. In contrast, Fultz held his own on both ends.

If Fultz can ever develop a three-point shot, he’d rise up lists like this one. Alas, he made just four of his 18 three-point attempts in 2023-24.

—Akeley

Peak season: 2010-11

Peak season stats: 21.4 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 1.2 3PG, 44.8 FG%, 16.4 PER, -1.4 BPM, .052 WS/48

Of the past 20 No. 1 overall picks, only two have a negative career box plus/minus: Andrea Bargnani and Anthony Bennett.

At No. 19, we were really left to pick from the cream of the crop.

Bargnani at least had one season in which he cracked 20 points per game. He also knocked down 77 three-pointers that year at a 34.5 percent clip, which made him a big man who was largely ahead of his time. (Imagine if he was born 10-15 years later!)

Bargnani could not defend worth a lick, as evidenced by the negative defensive BPM he put up in every single season of his 10-year career. The Toronto Raptors were also thoroughly mediocre during the seven-year Bargnani era, finishing with only two first-round playoff knockouts and one above-.500 season to show for it.

But when your only competition is Anthony Bennett—he of the 4.4 career points-per-game average in 151 regular-season appearances—you hold your nose and take Bargnani here.

—Toporek

Peak season: 2014-15

Peak season stats: 5.2 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 0.8 APG, 42.1 FG%, 11.4 PER, -3.9 BPM, .017 WS/48

What else is there to say other than:

—Favale

Advanced statistics via Basketball Reference, NBA.com and Cleaning the Glass unless otherwise noted.