NFL Fact or Fiction: Brock Purdy will get Trevor Lawrence money in 2025

Many were critical of the Jacksonville Jaguars agreeing to a new contract that makes Trevor Lawrence one of two quarterbacks with an annual average salary of $55 million. 

Lawrence hasn’t had the success of Joe Burrow, the other quarterback who averages $55 million per year, but he’s shown enough flashes the past three years that he could soon be as good as Burrow and the other elite quarterbacks in the NFL. 

But it’s surprising how many are still shocked about quarterbacks getting paid. By now, the football public should know that most quarterbacks who are considered to be average or better will likely be rewarded with lucrative contracts. It wasn’t that long ago when many were outraged about Daniel Jones receiving a four-year contract extension with an average annual salary of $40 million. The New York Giants received criticism last year, but at least they didn’t have to pay north of $50 million per year. 

The market keeps increasing because there aren’t that many good quarterbacks in the NFL. So if you have one good enough to be considered top 16, it’s better to pay him early before the market goes up. The Jaguars were wise to pay Lawrence before Jordan Love, Dak Prescott and Tua Tagovailoa get paid by their respective teams. 

But for this week’s “Fact or Fiction,” let’s look ahead to a contract dilemma brewing in San Francisco for 2025. 

Brock Purdy will get Trevor Lawrence money in 2025

Manzano’s view: Fact 

There are many hot takes about whether the Miami Dolphins should hand Tagovailoa a contract extension that compares to the five-year, $275 million deal the Jaguars and Lawrence agreed to last week. And even Lawrence’s deal has created debates about himself because his $55 million-per-year salary might be more about potential than production. 

But those arguments are tiring for many reasons. Let’s look ahead to Brock Purdy’s situation with the San Francisco 49ers because his next deal will likely create many headlines during the 2025 offseason. It’s a fascinating contract dilemma with many story lines about a former Mr. Irrelevant pick who benefits from a stacked roster, occasionally has up-and-down performances, but his highs include multiple comeback playoff wins. Now those are juicy story lines that should give us plenty to write about during the slow months next offseason.

Purdy’s representatives will surely ask for top-of-the-market dollars because it’s not about being the best quarterback, but more about whether you’re worthy of being next in line to reset the market. The 49ers would then probably counter with his inconsistent performances and how much Purdy needs coach Kyle Shanahan and his many offensive weapons. But eventually both sides will realize how much they need each other and hammer out a deal that tops Lawrence’s $275 million with $200 guaranteed. 

Obviously, Purdy can help his case by leading the 49ers to a Super Bowl win this season. But he’s already done enough to say he deserves a contract that tops Lawrence and what Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions recently agreed to (four years, $212 million). Purdy might not have the upside of Lawrence, but he has the production and playoff wins to strongly support his financial requests. The last pick of the 2022 NFL draft will probably also top the new deals of the soon-to-be-paid Love, Prescott and Tagovailoa, because top-16 quarterbacks usually get handsomely rewarded despite what we write.   

Aaron Rodgers’s unexcused absence will be forgotten by training camp

Manzano’s view: Fiction 

Coach Robert Saleh and the New York Jets are probably hoping the latest Aaron Rodgers story will be a distant memory by training camp because it’s the kind of story that should be forgotten after a few days. But it won’t be because of how poorly Saleh, Rodgers and the team handled the situation. 

Saleh told reporters that Rodgers’s absence from minicamp was unexcused, which has made many wonder about the four-time MVP’s whereabouts. Saleh could have easily said it was a personal matter and maybe less tabloids would have been created because Rodgers doesn’t need another minicamp at this stage of his career. Perhaps Saleh had the right to not sign off on Rodgers’s absence because he wanted to do another darkness retreat or hang out with celebrity friends and Saleh didn’t want other players to think the team was giving Rodgers special treatment. But it’s probably safe to say that most Jets players likely wouldn’t have cared about the 40-year-old quarterback missing June practices because he’s Aaron Rodgers. 

Saleh should have avoided saying “unexcused” and just handled it behind closed doors with his quarterback and chalked it up to “personal reasons.” But the Jets can’t seem to avoid the drama, with or without Rodgers. 

Ravens might miss playoffs because of offensive line issues 

Manzano’s view: Fact 

I unleashed an emphatic “Yes!” when I read Albert Breer’s note about the Baltimore Ravens’ offensive line issues last week for our “Most Surprising News of the Offseason” roundtable. 

Yes, the Ravens losing three starters from last year’s offensive line needs to be talked about more, especially with how the team handled the situation. They let guards Kevin Zeitler and John Simpson walk in free agency and traded right tackle Morgan Moses. They will likely be replaced by inexperienced linemen Andrew Vorhees, Ben Cleveland and rookie Roger Rosengarten. And Baltimore is also banking on left tackle Ronnie Stanley staying healthy most of the season.

Perhaps a dominant running game with veteran Derrick Henry will allow the retooled offensive line to develop a rhythm blocking for Lamar Jackson. But do the Ravens have wide receivers who can get open quickly? Does the 30-year-old Henry still have plenty to offer on the field? Will the Ravens’ defense be O.K. without former coordinator Mike Macdonald? All of these concerns, especially on the offensive line, could lead to a non-playoff season for the Ravens. 

‘Hard Knocks in Season’ on the AFC North will revitalize the reality show

Manzano’s view: Fiction 

HBO’s Hard Knocks has been one of the most successful reality shows because of the character development of players fighting to make the final roster and charismatic assistant coaches who don’t get to speak to the media often. But the concept has gotten stale the past few years, which could be why the series will focus on all four AFC North teams (Ravens, Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers) for the latest season of “Hard Knocks in Season.” 

Having four teams might hurt its identity of developing fascinating characters. This could be similar to the Hard Knocks season with the two Los Angeles teams during the COVID-19 year of 2020. That season was tough to watch because it wasn’t easy to get to know the players and coaches with all of the back-and-forth scenes between the Rams and Chargers. Now imagine what it will be like with four teams. But this isn’t the traditional Hard Knocks series before training camp (the spotlight is on the Chicago Bears this summer) with only three or four weeks to work with. Perhaps having more time over an entire season could help bring out the best in the four teams in the AFC North.