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SEC Football Power Index rankings for 2024: Which teams are underrated, overrated?

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SEC Football Power Index rankings for 2024: Which teams are underrated, overrated?

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The SEC just got more dangerous.

Football powerhouses such as Georgia and Alabama already call the conference home. But now OU and Texas, two heavyweights from the Big 12, are also in the mix.

The SEC boasts numerous teams capable of reaching the College Football Playoff. And with the 2024 season set to begin in late August, the conference hierarchy is already being projected.

ESPN recently released its Football Power Index (FPI), a power rating that tracks each team’s strength relative to an average FBS squad. Teams are rated on offense, defense and special teams.

Here’s a look at where each SEC team ranks in ESPN’s FPI and whether or not they should be higher or lower:

More: Oklahoma football start windows, kickoff times announced for 2024 SEC games

SEC football power index (FPI) rankings

1. Georgia Bulldogs

  • 2023 record: 13-1
  • Projected 2024 record: 10.3-2.1

It’s not hard to see why Georgia is rated by FPI as the No. 1 team in the nation. Quarterback Carson Beck is the Heisman favorite, and he has new wide receiver options in Miami transfer Colbie Young and Vanderbilt transfer London Humphreys. Then there’s the defense, which is led by returning defensive linemen Nazir Stackhouse and Warren Brinson. Georgia isn’t just the favorite to win the SEC title. It’s the favorite to win a national championship.

Ranking: Accurate

2. Texas Longhorns

  • 2023 record: 12-2
  • Projected 2024 record: 10-2.4

Texas should adjust well to the SEC with quarterback Quinn Ewers leading the charge. And even though wide receivers Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell are gone, Alabama’s Isaiah Bond and Houston’s Matthew Golden are now in the mix. Texas’ defense also lost some key contributors, but it reloaded by adding Louisville defensive lineman Jermayne Lole and UTSA linebacker Trey Moore. The Longhorns are set up to compete for an SEC title.

Ranking: Accurate

More: How friends Texas’ Chris Del Conte, OU’s Joe Castiglione decided on SEC move

3. Alabama Crimson Tide

  • 2023 record: 12-2
  • Projected 2024 record: 9.3-3

The Nick Saban era is over, but Alabama is still poised to compete. Quarterback Jalen Milroe should thrive under head coach Kalen DeBoer, and he’ll be protected by a strong offensive line that’s led by returner Kadyn Proctor. Alabama also lost six defensive players to the 2024 NFL Draft, but it’s anchored by returning linebackers Deontae Lawson and Jihaad Campbell. The Crimson Tide should keep rolling this season.

Ranking: Accurate

4. Oklahoma Sooners

  • 2023 record: 10-3
  • Projected 2024 record: 8.2-3.9

OU has given the keys to sophomore quarterback Jackson Arnold. And while he has a lethal receiver group that features Purdue transfer Deion Burks, he’ll be behind an offensive line that’s made up almost entirely of new pieces. The Sooners will lean on their defense, which boasts returners such as linebacker Danny Stutsman and safety Billy Bowman. But the No. 4 spot is high for a team that’ll likely be closer toward the middle of the pack.

Ranking: Overrated

More: OU football way-too-early, game-by-game predictions for 2024 Oklahoma Sooners season

5. Tennessee Volunteers

  • 2023 record: 9-4
  • Projected 2024 record: 8.6-3.5

Redshirt freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava is the guy now after leading Tennessee to a 2024 Citrus Bowl win over Iowa in his first start. The Volunteers also return an All-SEC first team selection in edge rusher James Pearce Jr., and Oregon State transfer cornerback Jermod McCoy and Middle Tennessee State transfer safety Jakobe Thomas lead a revamped secondary. Still, the No. 5 spot is a tad bit too high for a team with this much youth.

Ranking: Overrated

6. Missouri Tigers

  • 2023 record: 11-2
  • Projected 2024 record: 9-3.2

Missouri has everything it needs for another strong season. It boasts a dynamic duo of quarterback Brady Cook and wide receiver Luther Burden III. And while the Tigers lost five defensive players to the NFL Draft, additions such as Georgia Tech edge rusher Eddie Kelly and five-star freshman defensive lineman Williams Nwaneri can contribute immediately. The No. 6 spot isn’t far off, but I believe Missouri will crack the top five of the standings.

Ranking: Underrated

More: Tennessee football coach Josh Heupel looking forward to ‘unique’ return to OU

7. LSU Tigers

  • 2023 record: 10-3
  • Projected 2024 record: 7.9-4.2

Despite losing Heisman quarterback Jayden Daniels along with receivers Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr., the offense isn’t LSU’s biggest concern. Sophomore quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is legit, and Kyren Lacy can step up as the team’s top receiver. The biggest concern is LSU’s defense, which allowed the second-most points per game (28) in the SEC last season and didn’t get much better via the portal. The No. 7 spot is fair for LSU.

Ranking: Accurate

8. Texas A&M Aggies

  • 2023 record: 7-6
  • Projected 2024 record: 7.6-4.5

Quarterback Conner Weigman returns along with three starting offensive linemen, and Utah transfer center Koli Faaiu is a good replacement for Bryce Foster. The Aggies also hit the portal on defense to snag Purdue linebacker Nic Scourton, who led the Big Ten in sacks (10) last season, and Florida linebacker Scooby Williams. The No. 8 spot is realistic, but Texas A&M could climb the standings a bit more in head coach Mike Elko’s first season.

Ranking: Accurate

More: Big 12 Football Power Index rankings for 2024: Which teams are underrated, overrated?

9. Ole Miss Rebels

  • 2023 record: 11-2
  • Projected 2024 record: 7.9-4.2

Ole Miss is severely underrated. Jaxson Dart is one of the nation’s top quarterbacks, and South Carolina transfer Antwane Wells Jr. joins a receiver room that returns Tre Harris and Jordan Watkins. The Rebels also revamped their defense, and Texas A&M transfer defensive lineman Walter Nolen is the prized addition. Throw in a favorable schedule that doesn’t include Texas, Alabama or Tennessee, and Ole Miss has a path to compete for an SEC title.

Ranking: Underrated

10. Auburn Tigers

  • 2023 record: 6-7
  • Projected 2024 record: 7.2-4.9

Michigan State transfer quarterback Payton Thorne wasn’t great last season in his first year with Auburn. He’ll have more passing targets after the team added five-star freshman Cam Coleman, Georgia State’s Robert Lewis and Penn State’s KeAndre Lambert-Smith. The Tigers also retooled their defensive line by adding Indiana’s Phillip Blidi and USC’s Isaiah Raikes. Still, it’s hard to put Auburn at No. 10 with such a big question mark at quarterback.

Ranking: Overrated

More: OU football: Ranking the Sooners’ top 10 transfer portal additions for 2024

11. Florida Gators

  • 2023 record: 5-7
  • Projected 2024 record: 5.9-6.1

Quarterback Graham Mertz should be solid in his second season with Florida, and Arizona State transfer Elijhah Badger will form a good receiver duo with Eugene Wilson III. The Gators should also improve defensively with numerous returners and transfer pickups such as South Carolina linebacker Grayson Howard and Washington safety Asa Turner. But Florida’s tough schedule will prevent it from cracking the top 10 of the standings.

Ranking: Accurate

12. South Carolina Gamecocks

  • 2023 record: 5-7
  • Projected 2024 record: 6-6

Redshirt freshman quarterback LaNorris Sellers figures to start, but who will he throw to? South Carolina lost numerous receivers, including Xavier Legette. Its best pickup at that position is Florida State transfer Vandrevius Jacobs, who’s only a redshirt freshman. Georgia Tech’s Kyle Kennard should provide some much-needed production on the defensive line. Still, the No. 12 spot is fair for a team with so many question marks.

Ranking: Accurate

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13. Kentucky Wildcats

  • 2023 record: 7-6
  • Projected 2024 record: 6-6

Kentucky will have a fast-paced offense with Georgia transfer Brock Vandagriff at quarterback and a returning receiver duo of Barion Brown and Dane Key. And while the Wildcats’ defense allowed more than 300 points in a season last year for the first time since 2016, it has a star in defensive lineman Deone Walker and a key transfer pickup in Georgia linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson. I believe Kentucky will crack the top 10 of the standings.

Ranking: Underrated

14. Arkansas Razorbacks

  • 2023 record: 4-8
  • Projected 2024 record: 5.5-6.5

Boise State transfer Taylen Green is tasked with replacing five-year starting quarterback KJ Jefferson, and Utah transfer running back Ja’Quinden Jackson will try to revitalize the run game. The defense also has plenty of question marks, especially following the loss of linebackers Jaheim Thomas and Chris Paul Jr. The No. 14 spot is fair for the Razorbacks, who could take time to mesh with so many new pieces.

Ranking: Accurate

More: 2024 Heisman Trophy winner post-spring odds: OU football’s Jackson Arnold tied for 10th

15. Mississippi State Bulldogs

  • 2023 record: 5-7
  • Projected 2024 record: 5.1-6.9

First-year head coach Jeff Lebby will roll out an Air Raid offense with Baylor transfer quarterback Blake Shapen. And while Louisville transfer Kevin Coleman and UTEP transfer Kelly Akharaiyi are two playmaking receivers, how much time can the new-look offensive line buy for Shapen? Lebby can win at Mississippi State eventually, but his first season will be tough as he navigates an SEC schedule that includes Georgia, Texas, Tennessee and Ole Miss.

Ranking: Accurate

16. Vanderbilt Commodores

  • 2023 record: 2-10
  • Projected 2024 record: 4-8

New Mexico State transfer Diego Pavia is the favorite to start at quarterback. He’ll have returners such as Quincy Skinner Jr. and Junior Sherrill to throw to. Vanderbilt also retooled its defense at all three levels with transfers such as Purdue edge rusher Khordae Sydnor, TCU linebacker Randon Fontenette and Eastern Washington cornerback Marlon Jones Jr. Still, Vanderbilt will likely find itself at the bottom of the SEC standings one again.

Ranking: Accurate

More: OU football: What’s the biggest area of focus for Oklahoma Sooners’ 2025 recruiting class?

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