US Open Golf 2024: Updated Predictions for Top Prize Money for Day 3

For golf fans who love drama, the 2024 U.S. Open has provided plenty of it. Pinehurst No. 2 has been brutally difficult over the first two days, which has led to some very surprising developments.

Scottie Scheffler, who has seemed virtually unbeatable at times in recent months, narrowly made the cut after shooting a 74 on Friday.

“Around this place, you have to hit such good shots,” Scheffler said, per Mark Cannizzaro of the New York Post. “The golf course is challenging. I think personally it’s fun to play, but, yeah, it was definitely a grind.”

“Fun” probably isn’t the word most competitors would use to describe the tournament, which has been more of a marathon than a low-scoring sprint. However, a few golfers can feel positive heading into Saturday’s action.

Ludvig Åberg leads at 5-under, while Bryson DeChambeau, Thomas Detry and Patrick Cantlay are just one stroke behind.

There’s plenty at stake over the final two days, including the $4.3-million prize for first place. Let’s make a few predictions as Day 3 gets underway.

Where: Pinehurst Resort, No. 2 Course

Prize Pool: $21.5 Million ($4.3 Million to Winner)

*For tickets to the 2024 U.S. Open and other PGA events, check out Vivid Seats

TV and Live Stream Schedule (all times ET)

Saturday: 10 a.m. – 12 p.m. on USA, 12 – 8 p.m. on NBC

Sunday: 9 a.m. – 12 p.m. on USA, 12 – 7 p.m. on NBC

*Select featured-group live stream on USOpen.com and U.S. Open mobile app

Leaders After Day 2

1. Ludvig Åberg -5

T-2. Bryson DeChambeau -4

T-2. Thomas Detry -4

T-2. Patrick Cantlay -4

T-5. Rory McIlroy -3

T-5. Tony Finau -3

T-5. Matthieu Pavon -3

8. Hideki Matsuyama -2

Favorites Entering Day 3

Ludvig Åberg 33-10

Rory McIlroy 4-1

Bryson DeChambeau 4-1

Patrick Cantlay 9-1

Xander Schauffele 11-1

Tony Finau 12-1

Thomas Detry 16-1

Hideki Matsuyama 16-1

Tyrrell Hatton 35-1

*Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

While the U.S. Open won’t be officially decided until Sunday, Saturday’s action will go a long way toward dictating the final push.

The first prediction here for Round 3 is that Pinehurst No. 2 itself will continue to steal the spotlight. Under-par rounds were few and far between on both Thursday and Friday, and Saturday should be no different.

The course, as previously noted, has been the biggest challenger to the leaderboard throughout the tournament. Cantlay predicted after the opening round, that things could get progressively harder as the weekend unfolded.

“With the weather cooperating, it being warm, I imagine they can get the golf course as difficult as they want,” Cantlay said, per Cannizzaro. “I expect the golf course to play very difficult in the next few days.”

The weather will indeed be warm on Saturday, into the low 90s with minimal cloud cover, according to The Weather Channel.

Hot, dry grass will do nothing to slow the already fast and tricky sloped greens at Pinehurst. Those who find success on Saturday are likely to do so with patience and precision. Miscues will be costly.

Rory McIlroy had a phenomenal round on Thursday and finished tied with Cantlay atop the leaderboard at five-under. While the 35-year-old struggled on Day 2, with three bogies, two on the back nine—he avoided a total collapse.

While shooting a 72 wasn’t ideal, it could have been worse. He salvaged a par on No. 17 with a beautiful chip-in—a rarity at this weekend’s tournament. While McIlroy had his issues on Friday, particularly with putting, he remains in contention following a tedious round.

“Obviously it didn’t go quite as well as yesterday, but I feel like the golf course played a little more difficult, even though we were off in the morning,” McIlroy said, per Bryan Armen Graham of The Guardian.

If McIlroy can avoid minor missteps, he can climb back toward the top of the leaderboard before Sunday. There are reasons to believe he can.

Despite a rocky start to the 2024 season, McIlroy has been playing consistently well since the start of May. He won the Wells Fargo Championship, tied for 12th at the PGA Championship and has recorded a top-15 finish in each of his last five tournaments.

McIlroy may not win his first major since 2014, but the prediction here is that he’ll put pressure on Aberg, DeChambeau and the rest of the leaders heading into the final round.

This year’s incarnation of Pinehurst No. 2 might not seem like an ideal fit for DeChambeau, who is known more for his driving prowess than his short game. However, the 30-year-old has been excellent at both putting the ball down the fairway and managing approach shots through two rounds.

Coming into the weekend, DeChambeau also noted that he “found something” during the PGA Championship with his putting, per Brentley Romine of NBC Sports.

DeChanbeau’s skills were on full display on Thursday. He tackled the course as well as anyone, despite playing a different brand of golf than that to which he is accustomed.

“I would say from a mental exhaustion perspective, this was probably the most difficult that I’ve had in a long, long, long time,” DeChambeau said, per Alan Bastable of Golf.com. “I can’t remember the last time I mentally exerted myself that hard to focus on hitting fatter parts of the green instead of going for flags

Like many golfers, DeChambeau had a tougher time on Friday, though he still survived with a one-under 69.

The prediction here is that DeChambeau has another solid, if unspectacular round on Saturday to put himself firmly in the money mix for Sunday. That makes him a serious threat because DeChambeau—who finished second at the PGA Championship and won the 2020 U.S. Open at Winged Foot—is quite familiar with the big stage.

Don’t be surprised of DeChambeu pushes his way all the way to the top.

Predictions

1. Bryson DeChambeau

2. Patrick Cantlay

3. Rory McIlroy

4. Ludvig Åberg

5. Hideki Matsuyama

Gambling problem? Call (877-8-HOPENY) or text HOPENY (467369).

If
you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and
referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER
(1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ),
1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), visit OPGR.org (OR), call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN), or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).

Odds
and lines subject to change. 21+ (18+ NH/WY).
AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility
restrictions apply. See DraftKings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.