Tesla is biggest market bubble in world history: Short seller

Tesla’s (TSLA) stock momentum seems to have stalled Friday morning after shareholders voted to approve CEO Elon Musk’s pay packages — valued at nearly $46 billion — at the company’s annual shareholder meeting on Thursday.

Many analysts and Wall Street experts have shared new, incredibly bullish forecasts for the EV company, including Wedbush’s Dan Ives — whose latest call sees Tesla’s market cap reaching over $1 trillion in 2025 — and Ark Invest (ARKK) Founder, CEO, and CIO Cathie Wood, who believes the stock could reach $2,600 by 2029.

However, not everyone shares this enthusiasm around Tesla and Elon Musk. Clean Energy Transition CEO and Portfolio Manager Per Lekander — a long-time Tesla short-seller — joins The Morning Brief to explain his $15 price target, likening Tesla to “the next Enron.”

“Let’s not forget, that the stock is down 60% from all-time high at the same time as the market has gone up, 20, 25% in the meantime,” Lekander says, citing Tesla’s earnings and its year-to-date stock losses. “So the stock needs to go down. Once it goes down, it’s going to go down more. And I think what drives it down is earnings. And I think we are very, very close to the turning point because so far it’s been a slippery slope. They’ve sold cars poorly therefore they lowered the price, therefore earnings went down…”

Lekander characterizes Musk as “missing… what’s going on in the overall EV space” coming out of COVID-19 pandemic trends.

For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Morning Brief.

This post was written by Luke Carberry Mogan.

Catch up on Yahoo Finance’s coverage of all things Tesla, Elon Musk, and his pay package saga:

Don’t bet against Elon Musk: Dan Ives talks $1T Tesla call

Elon Musk wins Tesla shareholder battle to keep his record-breaking pay

Elon Musk has been integral to Tesla’s growth, AI: Cathie Wood

Musk’s pay battle is not over. Here’s why.

Is Elon Musk the right fit as Tesla’s CEO?

Musk pay package: What’s incentivizing shareholder votes

Elon Musk’s $46B Tesla pay package: Explained

Video Transcript

Tesla shares fractionally lower.

Just flat.

Barely to the downside right now, after shareholders reapproved of Elon Musk’s multi billion dollar pay package.

Now the stock is down nearly 30% compared to last year.

You’re taking a one year look here, and we’re taking a look at the shares over that 52 week.

Our next guest has been shorting the stock since 2020 sees more risk to the downside for the EV maker.

Per Leander, who is the clean energy transition CEO and portfolio manager here with more per great to have you on the programme with us first and foremost here, How much slippage do you think we could see?

Story continues

Yeah, thanks for having me.

Well, in my in my view, Tesla is the biggest, um, stock market bubble in world history.

Uh, and we have just seen the the the start of it.

Um um, you know, you see that?

You know, uh, the models are aged.

Um, and and valuation is absolutely insane.

Earnings are falling off a cliff.

I would say they’re falling 50% this year.

Um, right.

I have, like, 140 earnings.

Uh, for this year, I think consensus is 265.

It was, like five at the beginning of the year.

So if you think of it, uh, $1.5.

Uh, what?

How do you value that?

Um, I think given that there is no growth there, 10 times earnings is very generous.

So my price target is $15.

Um, having said that, I think this in the end is going to be a doughnut.

Uh, because once it gets into those levels, uh, and there is so much going on here in terms of class action lawsuits, boards, uh, which is, uh, paying itself enormous money and which is paying itself enormous money.

So I think this is hugely dangerous, and in the end, it’s going to prove to be the next General PERL.

Lots of questions.

I. I guess.

First, you’re starting off with some of the concerns that you listed.

Those concerns have certainly not caught up to the stock price and even taking a look at the reaction that we saw from some of Musk’s comments last night, there initially was some excitement surrounding the growth, at least that he sees for Tesla over the next several years.

I guess my first question to you is what’s going to change the perception here or the minds of investors, because up until this point, we haven’t seen some of those concerns that you’ve laid out reflected really at all in the stock price.

And I would say yes and no, Let’s not forget, uh, that the stock is down 60% from all time high at the same time as the market has gone up Uh, 20 25%.

Uh, in the meantime, so, um uh, but it’s step by step.

Where, what?

I, uh what will need to to happen here is, of course, that the retail crowd needs to to give up, because that is what’s holding up this stock in evaluation makes absolutely no sense, you know?

Well, do you think the retail trader that will give up on this III I and I think that that’s so interesting, especially surrounding Tesla and that excitement and exactly what that group of investors has been able to do around the broader story here for Tesla.

But everyone runs for the hills when it goes down.

So the so the stock needs to go down once it goes down, it’s going to go down more.

And I think what drives it down is earnings.

And, uh and I think we are very, very close to to the turning point because so far it’s been a slippery slope.

They’ve sold cars poorly.

They or they lowered the price.

Therefore earnings went down and and it circulated.

Now they are very, very close to waste.

And here, uh, you know, this quarter they are really introduced.

Almost 0% interest rates, uh, on the cars.

Uh uh When when Q two results come.

You know, if you think Q a had terrible deliveries, but actually not that bad earnings.

Um, in in Q two, they have done everything to get, uh, cars out of the door, and it’s going relatively well.

So, uh, deliveries are not going to be great, but they’re going to be OK, but earnings 25th of July is going to be absolutely terrible.

There is a chance that the company will be loss making.

And, uh, if it’s lost making one quarter and then it’s lost making in Q three, I can guarantee you this is double digits and then I. I think many fan boys will run for the hills.

And then we are at my 14, uh per earlier in the hour we spoke to Dan Ives, Wedbush Securities analyst and managing director.

Actually, uh, here’s what he had to say about the EV makers future, and I want to get your reaction on the other side.

But also, this is one you’re gonna see 34 million vehicles per year.

When you look out four or five years from now and again betting against musk, it’s been the wrong move.

And I think this has clearly been a turbulent period.

But I could see that Cinderella story starting again as we go into 2025.

Now you are clearly saying that there is a reason to bet against musk, but it seems like there are a lot of at least shareholders right now, regardless of whether or not retail is the single proponent that’s holding up the stock, uh, that you believe there’s reason that you should bet against musk A.

As long as musk is in the helm, does it seem like this is a company that is eventually gonna get towards what you’ve set forth in in your own target.

So?

So what?

I think, uh, he’s missing is what’s going on in the overall EV space.

Um, I had to go a step back a bit.

Uh, we came out of covid.

Uh, the auto industry was constrained.

There were early buyers of EVs.

You made a killing.

Uh, and Tesla was almost a monopolist, and they made a killing on this.

And then when things are very good, uh, of course, everyone piles in.

So all the conventional auto producers are piling in, and these models have started to come in.

24 more of them are coming in 25.

Tesla has nothing.

So I’ll, I’ll tell you there is a true true cycle which is playing out in Elis.

No one being battery.

Uh, producer, auto producer, lithium miner.

No one is going to make money over the next couple of years, and then Tesla has gone from being the leader to be the laggard.

So, um, you know the Yeah, you can’t have a stock being at 500 billion market cap if you make no earnings.

And that’s not been the case in the past.

So I’m I’m extremely convinced.

And uh, you know, just listen to what?

GM sta Anti Mercedes.

Whatever are saying on eBay?

They don’t make any money, and it’s going to get way, way worse before it gets better.

There is.

There is a long story, but that story is for 2728 Pearl Lekander who’s the clean energy transition CEO and portfolio manager per.

Thanks for sharing some of your thoughts here today.

I appreciate it.

Thank you.