Will Mizzou’s 2024 season be one for the ages?

We’re at that point in the summer where football season seems like it’s light years away. Yet before we know it, it’ll be August and we’ll be complaining about how fast the summer went. At least that’s how I roll typically.

With that, I’ve been doing some writing/research for the “Rock M Nation Football Pre-season Spectacular” (the actual name is still being workshopped) that will be coming out this summer (stay tuned to Rock M+ for details), and all of that work got me to wondering: just how important could the upcoming 2024 season be for the Mizzou Football program?

If this column was to ever make it to Eli Drinkwitz’s desk, this is the point where he’d roll his eyes and tell me to stay in my dadgum lane, I’m sure. Every season is the most important season for a coaching staff, they take each game one week at a time, focus on the present, ad infinitum, yada yada yada, etc., etc.

Now that I’m out of the athletics world, I don’t have to play that game anymore. It’s more fun to look at big picture/long-term trajectories, and after thinking on it, I submit that 2024 has a chance to be the most impactful season in Mizzou history.

This is based on a few factors. One, Mizzou has a chance to flash nationally at a level never before seen in the modern era, particularly with the advent of the first-ever 12-team playoff. Two, Mizzou has historically had trouble living up to high expectations and this is the perfect opportunity to lay waste to the narrative that we can’t hold our water as favorites. Lastly, when looking at the way the 2024 schedule sets up on paper, if ever the Tigers were going to have an historically impactful season, this would appear to be the one.

On the first point, being part of the first-ever 12-team playoff will be monumental for every program involved. Allow yourself to dream of how much hype the CFP is going to generate all throughout the season, and especially how intense the drama will be come November when the contenders are whittled down to 20-25 teams. Just imagine if the Tigers have the type of regular season that gives them a home game in the playoffs, how crazy will it be in Columbia for that whole week?

The amount of exposure and publicity the program would receive in this instance is unfathomable, and the multiplier effect it could have on recruiting, and on future revenue (ticket sales, donations, merchandising) is really limitless. Obviously, Drink and his staff have already enjoyed great success on the recruiting front, but just think of how even more dangerous they could be out there on the trail armed with the recency of a deep run in the playoffs? That’s fun to think about.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying that Mizzou has never been nationally significant – far from it. For crying out loud, two different times in the Gary Pinkel era (2007 & 2013), our Tigers were one stinkin’ half of football away from playing for a natty in the old BCS system. But the fact remains that the good guys just couldn’t capitalize on those conference championship game opportunities, unfortunately. Drink’s team has the ability to make the kind of noise their predecessors couldn’t. Heck, the 2024 Tigers don’t even have to reach the SEC title game, they could go 10-2 theoretically in the regular season and lose a tiebreaker scenario to be left out of Atlanta, yet still be in prime position for a great national seed in the playoffs. A deep run in this first-ever expanded playoffs would be remembered for a long time, and not just in Mizzou-centric circles.

Photo by WD/Icon SMI/Icon Sport Media via Getty Images

A quick aside, as a Mizzou fan/pseudo historian, I’m well aware and proud of the fact that the Dan Devine era produced amazing success, with numerous Tiger teams that were without question among the nation’s best. My overall argument here is related to modern times where the exposure and reach is at a completely different level than the 1960s when two games a season were televised, and recruiting was largely a regional practice.

To the second point above, Mizzou has historically had a hard time living up to (let alone exceeding) expectations when we’ve entered a season with a lot of national attention. I won’t belabor the point because that’s negative space and I don’t want to live there in depth. The most recent example I’ll tout was in the follow up season to 2007, and it didn’t quite hit the mark we all dreamed it would.

Just going on the preseason rankings, the 2008 team started the year ranked 6th and got as high as No. 3 after a 5-0 start but would go on to a 10-4 record and a final ranking of 19th. A program with Mizzou’s history should NEVER apologize for a double-digit win season that included a conference division title, a bowl game victory and a final top-20 ranking. However, everyone (coaches, players and fans alike) all felt a bit bummed that it was an opportunity lost. I’m really hoping the current team can perhaps learn from that historical perspective to make sure they are dialed in every single day this fall.

If Mizzou is ever going to get past the one-step-forward/one-step-back program trajectory, it’s time to start stacking big season after big season. The 11-win campaign a year ago took outsiders by surprise, now it’s time to back that up and make people take notice that 2023 was the new norm, and not the exception.

My final point of contention relates to the schedule strength that the Tigers will face this season. On paper, it might never be set up better for Mizzou to have a big year in the juggernaut that is the new and improved 16-team SEC.

When ranking the strength of league schedules in 2024, based on the projected over/under win totals provided by the fine folks in Vegas, Mizzou has drawn the 2nd-easiest SEC schedule. The Tigers’ eight league foes come into the year with an average projected win total of 6.5. Only Texas’ schedule (6.38) ranks as “easier” on paper. Also, looking at it another way, when ranking the strength of the seven SEC opponents that each school will not face in 2024, Mizzou’s strength of opponents missed is also second-strongest (the seven SEC teams MU misses in 2024 have an average projected win total of 8.43 which trails only Tennessee at 8.57).

Now, the “on-paper” argument is one that coaches laugh at heartily, because time has proven them to be right more often than not. Nobody knows what’s in store for every team this year, and any given day in the SEC is up for grabs. We know all the cliches, but they exist because they’re based in historical truth.

After all, heading into 2023, Mizzou’s projected win total was set at just 6.5 by the so-called experts, providing the perfect example of “you think you know, but you don’t know.”

Mizzou’s projected win total heading into 2024 is 9.5. Let’s hope Vegas knows more about the Tigers this year!