Making Sense of Jake Guentzel’s Situation and 5 Landing Spots for Top NHL Free Agent

Generally, when you think of a trade-deadline acquisition in the last year of a contract, you’re considering that a “rental.” The Carolina Hurricanes had been criticized throughout their Cup window for hesitating to go for many big names at the end of their contracts at the trade deadline.

When Jake Guentzel entered the picture as the Penguins kept falling in the standings, though, he was too perfect a piece for the Hurricanes to pass up. They went all in for him, and in turn, he went all in for them.

He fit even better than everyone knew he would, with eight goals and 17 points in 17 games with the Canes in the regular season, and four goals and nine points in 11 games in the playoffs.

Considering the great fit, the window the Hurricanes are still in, and their distaste for rentals, you’d think they’d perhaps work on an extension as Guentzel is set to hit free agency, right?

It looks like that may not be the case.

The Athletic‘s Pierre LeBrun reported that the two-time 40-goal scorer is expected to test free agency, which is often the case regardless, but it is still telling. Then Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported that the team is shopping around his signing rights for a mid-round draft pick, which is a bit juicier.

Why aren’t the Canes making more of an effort to re-sign him, and where else might he go?

There’s a reason Guentzel was the most coveted player at the deadline, and he showed his point-per-game prowess immediately after the Hurricanes acquired him. What else does this mean, though?

He is going to cost a ton of money, money the Hurricanes cannot afford to dish out without sacrifice. If Guentzel, who already has a Stanley Cup, is emphasizing getting paid at his next destination — and with the cap raising, why wouldn’t he? — he could be signing an AAV north of or around $8 million.

According to CapFriendly, the Hurricanes will have around $27.3 million in cap space (keep in mind the cap is set to rise, etc) headed into free agency.

You’ve got pending unrestricted free agents in Guentzel, Jordan Martinook, Stefan Noesen, Teuvo Teravainen, Jalen Chatfield, Tony DeAngelo, Brett Pesce and Brady Skjei. You’ve got RFAs in Seth Jarvis, Jack Drury and Martin Nečas, with Nečas and Drury eligible for arbitration.

It’s logistically impossible for the Canes to bring back all (or even most) of these names. Jarvis, Pesce, Skjei, and Teravainen will all cost you a pretty penny, and so will Necas if he isn’t finally traded.

Then you’ve got former GM Don Waddell leaving for the Blue Jackets. Assistant GM and analytics genius Eric Tulsky took over in the interim, and it looks like he’s going to get Carolina’s GM job permanently. While that’s great for Tulsky and his many fans, and he’s done great work behind the scenes in the front office for years, he’s taking over at an extremely pivotal point with so much to get done. There will be hard, unpopular decisions off the bat, and judging by Friedman’s report, shopping Guentzel and taking care of the bulk of the free agents who’d been with the team longer might be the direction he takes it.

Many of us were hyped for the Taylor Hall-Connor Bedard experience, but unfortunately, Hall had another injury-riddled year and only played 10 games with the Blackhawks last season.

Imagine how epic a slightly seasoned Connor Bedard sophomore season alongside Guentzel would be?

They’ve got $32.940 million in projected cap space, much less to lose than the Canes, and a need for a consistent and elite winger for Bedard. The Blackhawks also have the draft capital to make the reported “mid-round pick” ask from the Canes possible.

If they’re looking to accelerate their rebuild, why not sign Guentzel and for the sake of everyone, a few decent defensemen?

How more supervillian-y could the Rangers get with yet another power play merchant on the squad? Guentzel to the Rangers would be paradise for New York fans and a nightmare for everyone else.

If Guentzel is seeking another Cup, though, and the Rangers would be willing to make a few moves to get him, this would be a comically good special teams squad. And these playoffs are showing us that a good power play and an elite goaltender are the name of the game.

The Rangers are working with $11.6 million in cap space right now, more than $10 million less than the already cap strapped Hurricanes, though, so this is just a pipe dream. Or a pipe nightmare.

The way the Penguins handled dealing homegrown Guentzel wasn’t entirely ideal if they ever wanted to get him back. He’d never been traded before and as the Penguins were falling, it all happened extremely fast.

Business is business, but the Penguins running Guentzel back doesn’t seem likely. They had a year to sign him to an extension prior to the trade and they didn’t make huge moves in even attempting to do so.

Could a Sidney Crosby extension change things though? Perhaps. Crosby was not happy that his longtime winger was moved and would obviously welcome him back.

In the history of the NHL, stuff like this just generally doesn’t happen. Think about going back to a place of work that effectively fired you.

Jake Guentzel, you are a Vancouver Canuck! Doesn’t that sound sort of good?

The playoffs showed us that Elias Pettersson could certainly use higher-caliber wingers. A freshly extended Pettersson could attract Guentzel, knowing a premier center in the league isn’t going anywhere.

The Canucks were linked to Guentzel at the trade deadline, so why wouldn’t they test the waters now? They are seeking a top six winger. The tricky part is the rights to signing — the Canucks don’t have a first- or second-round pick in the 2024 draft, so it’s even tougher to give up the third-round pick, if that’s what the Canes would even want.

But with a team that’s likely entered its Cup window, and with $24.078 million in cap space, you at least go for Guentzel if you’re the Canucks.