Five early Ohio State predictions: Could Buckeyes lose to Oregon, win Big Ten?

The start of football season is just a few months away, and with Ohio State’s roster set, it seems like a good time for some early predictions for a year with especially high expectations.

Looking back at last year’s predictions, I went two-for-five. I was right about Marvin Harrison Jr. being a Heisman finalist and that Kyle McCord would be the starting quarterback. I was wrong when I said that Ohio State would beat Michigan, it would win the Big Ten and that J.T. Tuimoloau would win Big Ten defensive player of the year.

Let’s see if we can do a little bit better this year.

Emeka Egbuka finishes as a Biletnikoff Award finalist

Ohio State went 27 years between its first Biletnikoff finalist — Terry Glenn, who won the award in 1995 — and its second finalist, Marvin Harrison Jr., in 2022. There is an argument Harrison should’ve won the award that year, but he ended up repeating as a finalist and won it in 2023.

The lack of finalists is hard to fathom with all the talented NFL receivers that have come through Columbus. The prediction here is that Egbuka is going to be a Biletnikoff finalist, giving Ohio State three consecutive finalists to become only the second team to do so since the award began in 1994. Florida State did it with two receivers: Peter Warrick was a third-place finisher in 1998 and 1999 and then Marvin Minnis finished runner-up in 2000.

Egbuka has a lot to prove this year. He’s a former 1,000-yard receiver who suffered a Lisfranc injury last year, had surgery and returned after missing three games in the middle of the season. He didn’t look 100 percent until later in the season, but it was too late to return to form then.

I’m willing to bet on the 2022 version of Egbuka returning. He tallied 1,151 yards and 10 touchdowns that year, and despite having a drop in quarterback talent from C.J. Stroud to Will Howard or Devin Brown, I think Egbuka can recapture that sophomore year magic. He’s going to get the most targets on the team, and Ohio State’s depth and versatility at wide receiver will allow him to move around and be used in a variety of ways.

I’d argue he comes into the season as the third best receiver in college football, giving the nod to Missouri’s Luther Burden III at No. 1 and Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan at No. 2. You could add Oregon’s Tez Johnson into the debate, but even if you drop Egbuka, he can’t go further than fourth.

Egbuka will be a 1,000-yard receiver again this year, and he’ll be a Biletnikoff finalist, too.

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Ohio State loses at Oregon but wins the Big Ten championship

There’s a decent number of people who expect Ohio State to run the table in the regular season — more than I thought, at least.

In The Athletic’s fan survey last month, 55 percent of voters said they expect Ohio State to go 12-0. That means the Buckeyes will go to Oregon and beat the Ducks on Oct. 12. That’s a tough matchup, especially with the travel, considering Oregon is one of two teams I think that match up with the Buckeyes talent-wise.

It will also be the first true road test for whomever the starting quarterback is. Either Howard or Brown will get some warm-up games with Akron, Western Michigan, Marshall and Michigan State to start the first month. Iowa at home in Week 5 will be a test, given the strength of the Hawkeyes’ defense, but going to Oregon, for a matchup that both fan bases have been desperately waiting for since COVID-19 canceled the game in Eugene scheduled for 2020, is the first game against another national title contender.

It feels like one of those early games that can go the wrong way for Ohio State while also serving as something it can learn from down the road.

A loss isn’t the end of the world. As long as Ohio State wins at Penn State on Nov. 2., I think it goes into the last week of the season with just one loss. This time, Ohio State beats Michigan and then gets its revenge on Oregon in the Big Ten title game, punching its ticket to the CFP quarterfinals.

Ohio State lost to Oregon in their most recent meeting in 2021. (Joseph Maiorana / USA Today)

Buckeyes finish with top defense for first time since 2019

You’re going to hear a lot of comparisons between the 2024 defense and the group in 2019 that led the country in total defense, pass defense and yards allowed per play.

I won’t get to deep into the direct comparisons, but I expect the Buckeyes to have the best secondary in the country. I also expect them to finish the season atop the nation in total defense.

You can often can think of ways that seasons can go awry because of injuries or because a position doesn’t measure up in talent. There’s none of that on this defense. Defensive back Jermaine Mathews could start right now, as could defensive end Caden Curry, for example. If somebody on the defensive line gets injured, anyone on the second team is good enough to start.

Linebacker is a question, but that’s because of inexperience at one position, not because of talent. Sonny Styles and C.J. Hicks were five-star recruits, the best prospects in the 2022 class for a reason.

Then there’s elite talent at the top. JT Tuimoloau and Denzel Burke are expected to be first-round picks, and there are at least five other draft picks on the defense. Add in the fact this is the third year under coordinator Jim Knowles, who is known for his ability to create havoc, and this defense is primed to be the best in the country.

I don’t think Ohio State runs the table like it did in 2019 — there are more questions on offense — but the defense is good enough to carry the load while the new quarterback finds his footing, especially given the relatively easy start to the schedule.

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Will Howard wins the starting QB job

Yes, I’m really going out on a limb with this one … I just don’t see a way this goes Brown’s way this summer.

Howard isn’t a perfect player. I’d like to see his deep ball get better, for one. But he has a lot of the tools you want out of a quarterback. He sees the field well, has ideal size at 6 feet 4 and 237 pounds, moves well in the pocket, can run when needed and is accurate throwing off-script.

He impressed me in the spring game, even if there were times during the spring when Brown had the better day. This battle is closer than many think, and we’ll see how preseason camp goes. But despite it being a tight battle, it’s hard to see Howard not coming out on top in the end. When the players have similar skill traits, I side with the one who has better pocket presence and field vision. That’s Howard.

Ohio State ties its 2004 high with 14 players drafted, one short of the record

Ohio State is loaded. There’s a reason we’re talking about the best defense in the country and national championship odds with this year’s team.

That talent means Ohio State could be eyeing the record for most draft picks in one year. Georgia holds the record with 15 in the 2022 draft. I don’t think Ohio State can reach that number, but it could tie its 2004 mark of 14 players.

These are the names I came up with: Will Howard, TreVeyon Henderson, Quinshon Judkins, Donovan Jackson, Seth McLaughlin, Emeka Egbuka, JT Tuimoloau, Jack Sawyer, Ty Hamilton, Tyleik Williams, Denzel Burke, Jordan Hancock, Sonny Styles and Lathan Ransom.

There’s some wiggle room in these names. But if Ohio State is in the national title race, there’s no way Howard goes undrafted. Also, I’m predicting that Judkins and Styles will leave early here, which means Styles has a stellar year at linebacker. Hamilton is another name that could go either way, but he has a chance to jump off the tape this year.

The path to 15 draftees isn’t impossible. Cody Simon could move into the draft with a great year, and another name I’m curious about is Davison Igbinosun. He has size, competitiveness and physicality. If he has a strong season, he could become the 15th player on the list, which would tie Georgia.

(Top photo of Emeka Egbuka: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)