Edmonton Oilers coach demotes veteran d-man Ceci, shuffles lines, but is it enough to beat Florida Panthers?

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Playoff Game Day 20, Oilers vs Panthers, Stanley Cup Finals G2

Edmonton Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch is at it again, making another bold roster move for Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Finals against the Florida Panthers.

This in from Daniel Nugent-Bowman of The Athletic from the Oilers practice in Florida today, news that Edmonton d-man Cody Ceci has been demoted out of the top three pairings.

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Oilers lines and pairings at morning skate for Game 2 of the SCF:
RNH-McDavid-Hyman
Henrique-Draisaitl-Holloway
Foegele-McLeod-Perry
Janmark-Carrick-Brown
Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Desharnais
Kulak-Broberg
(Kemp-Ceci)

And Mark Spector of Sportsnet reported: “No (Evander) Kane at practice, which is normal. One thing, source tells me Kane never (or very seldom) sat on the bench in Game 1. Whatever his injury, sitting doesn’t work for him. He’s walking the line between courageous and ineffective, 1 pt in 8 games.”

Update: Jack Michaels of the Oilers reports Kane will play tonight.

And from Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet: “Edmonton: Desharnais in for Ceci. Kane didn’t skate (not unusual), but says he’s playing. Carrick game-time decision, possibly for Corey Perry.”

My take

1. Hmm. Knoblauch is evidently moving out Cody Ceci in favour of Vincent Desharnais, but as much as the Nurse-Ceci pairing has been caved in on goals for and against in the playoffs (five goals for, 14 against), the Nurse-Desharnais pairing has been weaker (two goals for, eight against).

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Ceci and Nurse have been hammered by NHL commentators since being on the ice for two goals against in Game 1. Most recently, Ray Ferraro on the Ray & Dregs podcast said of the pairing. “They do not work together. It does not work… If you look at both goals, they were played poorly by both guys on both of them.”

On the first one, Nurse misread the play, Ferraro said. “As soon as he pinches or tries to squeeze out Sam Reinhart, the puck goes to Barkov.”

On the second goal, Ceci got beat to the puck by Sam Bennett. “And I’m not really sure what Nurse was doing with his stick in front of the net, but Al Arbour, the Great Al used to say, ‘You’re not Zoro out there,’ meaning what is the thing doing chest high. The puck went right past him, it’s in the net. And so the change has to be made.”

Being paired up with Darnell Nurse has been the common denominator in the struggles of other d-men. The pressure is on the veteran d-man to turn his game around in rapid fashion, and at least play a much safer and sounder game on defence, even in limited minutes.

Ceci has hung in there when he’s not been paired with Nurse, the same going with Desharnais. Can the Nurse-Desharnais pairing reverse the trend of getting caved in on the scoreboard. The pairing are NOT getting out-shot when they’re on the ice together, so there’s some hope. I suspect they will also get limited minutes, as the Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm pairing have been outstanding, and the Philip Broberg and Brett Kulak pairing can also defend and move the puck well.

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2. The third line is a problem for the Oilers, as each one of Ryan McLeod, Warren Foegele and Corey Perry have seen significant drops in their two-way performance comparing the regular season to the playoffs. Perry especially seems slow on the ice; I’m not sure why Derek Ryan wasn’t slotted in. But they are bringing zero offence, with McLeod and Foegele just one goal each in the playoffs, Perry not one.

It could well be that Kane will be slotted in on the third line maybe taking the place of Perry. Kane has been far more effective than either Kane or Foegele in the playoffs. He can play, he should be in there, even as he’s playing hurt, even if he’s trending down a bit. Kane has been the second most effective two-way winger on the Oilers after Zach Hyman and his physical presence is essential to the Oilers.

3. A number of Oilers players have been struggling to replicate the two-way form and attacking edge they had in the regular season. This includes almost every centre on the team, whose attacking numbers are down, with Draisaitl also leaking Grade A shots against at a higher rate in the playoffs. On the wing, no player has seen a bigger drop off in his play than Warren Foegele, who is a shadow of his regular season self in the playoffs this year, with Corey Perry not too far behind in terms of reduced performance, followed by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who has been inconsistent, bad games followed by good games.

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4. On defence, Evan Bouchard and Philip Broberg have improved their performance in the playoffs over the regular season, with Bouchard’s defensive play trending up. Mattias Ekholm, Brett Kulak and Cody Ceci are all playing at about the same level as they did in the regular season, though Ceci’s play then was also somewhat subpar. Darnell Nurse and Vincent Desharnais have been in massive defensive slumps all playoffs, leaking Grade A shots at a high rate.

5. On the attack, most of the players have also seen their rate of major contributions to Grade A shots drop from the regular season to the playoffs. The biggest drops are with Foegele, Perry, RNH, Sam Carrick and McLeod at forward and with Nurse on defence. A few players, Bouchard and Ekholm, have managed to improve their offensive play in the intense action of the players, a most impressive feat.

6. The Florida Panthers were flat in Game 1, with the Grade A shots 16 to eight for Edmonton. The Panthers got better as the game went along, as Knoblauch’s move to put Draisaitl and McDavid on the same line failed to push Edmonton ahead.

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In Game 2  we can likely expect a better effort from Florida but I’d suggest Edmonton will also be better. Edmonton’s need to win is greater than Florida’s need, and necessity breeds increased focus and effort. I don’t like to call it desperation. Motivation is a better word.

Edmonton will be more motivated than Florida to win Game 2. The Oilers have also broken up Ceci and Nurse — a pairing that should never have been re-united — but they have replaced it with Nurse and Desharnais, another failed experiment.

It’s not too late to go Nurse and Broberg, then Kulak and Desharnais. Why not do it?

At the Cult of Hockey

STAPLES: Don Cherry on Edmonton Oilers Game 1 loss: “That was his greatest game”

STAPLES: What can the Oilers do about major defensive slump from Darnell Nurse?

LEAVINS: 9 Things, including a look at Knoblauch’s tough decisions for Game 2

McCURDY: Player grades for Game 1 with Broberg and Janmark grading out highest

STAPLES: ‘Bob is in sicko mode’ — Hockey world reacts to Bobrovsky’s shutout

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