Locked and loaded for the US and Canada jobs report | Forexlive

Both the US and the Canada jobs report will be released at the bottom of the hour. What is expected for May in the US?

• Non-farm payroll estimate 185K (vs 175 theK)
• Private payroll, 170K vs 167K last month.
• Manufacturing payrolls, 5K vs 8K last month
• Unemployment rate 3.9% est vs 3.9% last month
• Average earnings MoM 0.3% versus 0.2% last month
• Average earnings YoY 3.9% versus 3.9% last month
• Average workweek (hrs) 34.3 versus 3.4% last month
• labor force participation rate:No estimate versus 62.7% last month
• U6 underemployment: No estimate versus 7.4% last month.

In Canada,

• Employment change 22.5K expected vs 90.4 last month
• Unemployment rate 6.2% vs 6.1% last month
• Part time employment last month 50.3K
• Full time employment last month 40.1
• Participation Rate 65.4 last month
• Average hourly earnings last month 4.8%.

Looking at some of the US employment data released so far:

• ADP employment change 152K vs 173K estimate. Prior month was revised to 188K vs 192K. LOWER
• ISM Manufacturing PMI 51.1 vs 48.6 last month. HIGHER and above 50.0 (expanding)
• ISM Non- Manufacturing employment 47.2 vs 45.9 in April. HIGHER but below 50.0 (contracting)
• JOLTs job openings: 8.06M vs 8.37M estimate. LOWER and lowest level since February 2024.
• Challenger layoffs 63.816K vs 64.789K last month. Little changed, but lower than the 2024 high at 90.39K
• 4 week MA of initial jobless claims 222.25K. Highest levels since September 2023. The highest since the fall post Pandemic reached 253K. The low was at 197K.