Tuley’s Take on the Belmont Stakes and Saturday’s Saratoga Best Bets

We don’t have a Triple Crown on the line again in Saturday’s Belmont Stakes, but it’s still an intriguing betting race along with a strong undercard for some Saratoga best bets.

The 156th running of the Belmont is being held at Saratoga Race Course in upstate New York for the first time as the downstate facility in Elmont, New York, is undergoing a $455 million renovation. 

Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan and Preakness winner Seize the Grey headline a field of 10, but we’re certainly going to beat them as we believe there are several live long shots in the field as well as on the rest of Saturday’s races at the Spa.

I was disappointed in the Preakness three weeks ago as I felt I handicapped the race perfectly but just landed on the wrong horse. My pick was Imagination, as I was hoping with the lack of other speed horses that he would be able to grab the early lead and never get headed. My mistake was not factoring in Seize the Grey, a son of Arrogate, to go for the lead on the muddy track and basically steal the race using the same tactics I was hoping for in my Imagination. I wish Frankie Dettori had still pushed Imagination to the lead; granted, that might have cooked both their chances in a suicide speed duel, but that would have given us the best chance.

Anyway, we have to take the consolation prize of doping the race correctly and try to do it again (and hopefully pick the right horse this time!).

But first, here are two more races I like on the undercard as Saratoga’s best bets. Happy handicapping!

Saratoga Race 10 (4:52 p.m. ET/1:52 p.m. PT)

Tuley’s Take: In the Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap (aka Met Mile), last year’s Preakness winner, #2 National Treasure (8-5 morning line) and 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner #6 White Abarrio (6-5) are getting all the attention, but I’m going to try to beat them with #3 Post Time (7-2 morning line). Post Time came up short as the 6-5 chalk in his last race, so we’re hoping that will boost the price as bettors will probably dismiss him. However, his stalking style should have him right in position at the top of the stretch with as good a shot as anyone. I’m hoping his odds drift off to 5-1 or 6-1. He will have something on him regardless, but Win only.

Saratoga Best Bet: Win on #3 Post Time.

Saratoga Race 11 (5:36 p.m. ET/2:36 p.m. PT)

Tuley’s Take: My value play is #2 Ohana Honor (15-1 morning line). Some will say this is a hunch play as I’m on a family vacation in Hawaii and “ohana” is Hawaiian for family, but I handicapped each horse’s past performances with nary a look at their names until I sat down to write.

(Tuley Noted: further insight into my handicapping process for those interested: I also don’t consider the jockeys and trainers until the end because I don’t want to be biased as this is still “horse racing” and not “jockey racing” or “trainer racing.” I’m not disputing the fact that the human connections are part of the process, especially when it comes to a jockey that fits a particular horse’s running style or a trainer that is extraordinary with certain types of horse – 2-year-olds, turf runners, etc. – but I want to give them the proper weight. )
OK, back to the Grade 1 Manhattan Stakes, with the presence of #4 Strong Quality, we could get a decent pace for the closers to run at, and Ohana Honor looks like the one to take most advantage of that. The 4-year-old son of Honor Code did go wire-to-wire in his April 14 win in an allowance race, but he set a four-furlong fraction of 50 3/5 seconds, so he’s not the speedball type and has been a consistent closer.

Saratoga Best Bets: Win and Place on #2 Ohana Honor

Saratoga Race 12 (6:41 p.m. ET/3:41 p.m. PT)

Tuley’s Take: I’ve cashed a lot of tickets in my life on horses that let me down previously, though the truth is I was probably on them too soon. Either way, I’d rather be too soon than too late. I’ve seen far too many horseplayers who kick themselves for liking a horse but not betting at long odds because they want to “see how it handles this track for the first time” or “how it handles the turf” or “how it comes along in this new barn” and so on. Then, when they bet on the horse they could have been on before anyone else, they have to settle for betting them as chalk after everyone else is on the bandwagon. Life’s too short, people!

Having said that, I’m coming back with my Kentucky Derby pick, #6 Dornoch (15-1 morning line), as my value play in the Belmont. He was shuffled back from the No. 1 post in the Derby (which I was hoping wouldn’t happen as his connections needed to push him to the lead for any chance) and never really got into the race before jogging home in 10th place, 18 lengths behind the winner. In my mind, it turned into nothing more than a public workout, and he should be ready to fire back fresh after five weeks off with a couple of solid works thrown in. Dornoch’s greatest success has been on the lead like in his three straight wins over the fall and winter, highlighted by his wire-to-wire victory in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes.

I’m hoping to also cash some juicy exotics with some other live colts. #2 Resilience (10-1 morning line) is intriguing and might have been my top value play if not for Dornoch running again. The son of Into Mischief was running mid-pack in the Kentucky Derby and made it up to second place after six furlongs before fading. There’s no shame in that, and he has a shot here if he returns to his Wood Memorial winning form.

#4 The Wine Steward (15-1 morning line) ran second in the Grade 3 Peter Pan (the traditional “prep” race for the Belmont), and I like him better than the winner even though he does have a case of seconditis with three straight runner-up finishes (though that would work for our purposes here). And even though we’re trying to beat the chalk, I will include #9 Sierra Leone (9-5) on my tickets as an argument could be made that he was the best 3-year-old on Derby Day, and if I have to include one of the top contenders I’m not passing on him.  

Saratoga Best Bets: Win and Place on #6 Dornoch. Exotic boxes on 2-4-6-9.