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Belmont 2024 odds to win: Sierra Leone or Mystik Dan? Best bets, sleeper picks, post positions following draw | Sporting News

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Belmont 2024 odds to win: Sierra Leone or Mystik Dan? Best bets, sleeper picks, post positions following draw | Sporting News

With Monday’s post-position draw for the 2024 Belmont Stakes complete, excitement has started to mount amongst fans and bettors alike for the 156th running of the third and final Triple Crown event.

Some changes to the field can be expected between now and the famed Saratoga Springs event — remember, Fierceness was already ruled out of this race last weekend, and we saw odds-on favorite Muth scratched days before the Preakness. However, FanDuel Racing has outright winner odds listed for the third leg of the Triple Crown.

MORE BELMONT: Horse profiles | Post positions

Not surprisingly, Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan, Preakness winner Seize the Grey, and Derby runner-up Sierra Leone all sit as favorites to win. Those horses will run from the third, first, and ninth posts, respectively. Read on for more context on those favorites and what their post positions mean for their chances to contend.

Let’s take a look at the FanDuel Racing odds for the 2024 Belmont, then discuss the best bets, top value pick, and best sleeper to win.

Belmont Stakes 2024 odds to win

All odds courtesy of FanDuel Racing. Pos = post position.

Pos. Horse Odds
9 Sierra Leone 9-5
10 Mindframe 7-2
3 Mystik Dan 5-1
1 Seize the Grey 8-1
2 Resilience 10-1
8 Honor Marie 12-1
5 Antiquarian 12-1
4 The Wine Steward 15-1
6 Dornoch 15-1
7 Protective 20-1

BUY NOW: Cheapest tickets for 2024 Belmont Stakes on StubHub

Belmont Stakes 2024: Favorites

The clear favorites in the 2024 Belmont Stakes field are Sierra Leone (9-5), Mindframe (7-2), Mystik Dan (5-1), and Seize the Grey (8-1). Resilience (10-1), Honor Marie (12-1), and Antiquarian (12-1) all have short odds as well, but Sierra Leone’s odds imply about a 36-percent winning probability. 

Belmont Stakes 2024: Best bets

Sierra Leone (9-5)

Considering Sierra Leone came so close to winning the soggy Kentucky Derby — and he has plenty of experience winning in wet and muddy conditions — he’s the fitting favorite in Saratoga this weekend. 

Future Hall-of-Fame trainer Chad Brown, a Saratoga native, knows this track well and has accumulated a record amount of Belmont training titles. Brown recently made the switch from jockey Tyler Gaffalione to Flavien Prat, which should fare well for Sierra Leone. This feels like his race to lose this weekend. 

Mystik Dan (5-1)

Mystik Dan won the Kentucky Derby and finished second at the Preakness, and there’s no reason to expect this impressive colt to finish anywhere lower than the top three this weekend in Saratoga.

Mystik Dan has great speed figures, fantastic positional strength, and a tremendous post position out of the third gate. He should be one of the most popular betting picks, and for good reason. 

Belmont Stakes 2024: Top value pick

Seize the Grey (8-1)

Seize the Grey broke his maiden at Saratoga, and his trainer Wayne Lucas has won the Belmont four times. After winning the Pat Day Mile on Kentucky Derby day and then emerging victorious at the Preakness by 2.25 lengths, he has become a fan favorite.

Seize the Grey has been very busy lately, running three races in five weeks, but nobody can deny the spectacular form in which this three-year-old enters the weekend. He has good pedigree, an awesome speed profile, and surprising stamina for a horse that many consider to be a sprinter. Out of the first post, this feels like a fantastic value pick at 8-1.

Another solid value pick: Resilience (10-1)

Belmont Stakes 2024: Best sleeper

Antiquarian (12-1) 

Antiquarian just seems to get better and better each race, and he seems to be getting overlooked a bit ahead of the Belmont. The winner of the Peter Pan Stakes at Aqueduct last month, this three-year-old colt enters the weekend in peak form and could easily contest for a win, place, or show. 

A Todd Pletcher-trained horse, Antiquarian has strong tactical speed and underrated stamina. In four starts, he has two wins and one runner-up. Antiquarian might not be worth an outright win bet, but he’s worth strong consideration for exacta or trifecta tickets this weekend. 

Another solid sleeper pick: Protective (20-1)

What is the best post position in horse racing?

Although it’s important to note that this weekend’s event will be held at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, NY this year — not Belmont’s usual venue at Belmont Park, due to a renovation break — it’s still worth noting the past post position success rates for the race and racing in general.

The optimal position in horse racing is dependent on a lot of factors, including the horse, the track, the jockey, the terrain, the weather, and the competition.

Strategies also vary based on the position. Every position from 1-13 has won at least one race at the Belmont Stakes. That said, the No. 1 post has come away with the most wins in history at 24 — great news for Preakness winner Seize the Day. 

Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan and his team should be happy, too, as the No. 3 post has won 16 times including last year’s race. The No. 1 post last won in 2018.

Here’s the full count of winners by post positions throughout the history of the Belmont Stakes:

Post pos. Belmont winners
1 24
2 13
3 16
4 10
5 15
6 9
7 14
8 7
9 4
10 1
11 3
12 1
13 1

MORE: Who won the 2024 Kentucky Derby?

Belmont Stakes winners by post position

All 13 gates have earned at least one victory at the Belmont Stakes since the race began using starting posts in 1904.

Gate 1 has the most winners and last won in 2018, while Gate 3 was the 2023 winner.

Below is a list of all of the winners at each gate since 1904:

Post 1 — 24 winners

Year Horse
1910 Sweep
1916 Friar Rock
1917 Hourless
1918 Johnren
1919 Sir Barton
1920 Man o’ War
1922 Pillory
1924 Mad Play
1925 American Flag
1927 Chance Shot
1930 Gallant Fox
1931 Twenty Grand
1939 Johnstown
1940 Bimelech
1946 Assault
1948 Citation
1967 Damascus
1969 Arts and Letters
1972 Riva Ridge
1973 Secretariat
1992 A.P. Indy
1997 Touch Gold
2003 Empire Maker
2018 Justify

Post 2 — 13 winners

Year Horse
1907 Peter Pan
1908 Colin
1909 Joe Madden
1915 The Finn
1923 Zev
1926 Crusader
1943 Count Fleet
1951 Counterpoint
1974 Little Current
1990 Go And Go
1994 Tabasco Cat
2017 Tapwrit
2021 Essential Quality

Post 3 — 16 winners

Year Horse
1913 Prince Eugene
1914 Luke McLuke
1921 Grey Lag
1932 Faireno
1934 Peace Chance
1935 Omaha
1941 Whirlaway
1952 One Count
1956 Needles
1971 Pass Catcher
1978 Affirmed
1980 Temperence Hill
2000 Commendable
2011 Ruler on Ice
2012 Union Rags
2023 Arcangelo

Post 4 — 10 winners

Year Horse
1905 Tanya
1928 Vito
1929 Blue Larkspur
1942 Shut Out
1957 Gallant Man
1962 Jaipur
1987 Bet Twice
1993 Colonial Affair
2004 Birdstone
2009 Summer Bird

Post 5 — 15 winners

Year Horse
1938 Pasteurized
1953 Native Dancer
1954 High Gun
1955 Nashua
1963 Chateaugay
1964 Quadrangle
1966 Amberoid
1970 High Echelon
1975 Avatar
1977 Seattle Slew
1981 Summing
1988 Risen Star
1991 Hansel
2008 Da’ Tara
2015 American Pharoah

Post 6 — 9 winners

Year Horse
1904 Delhi
1906 Burgomaster
1944 Bounding Home
1950 Middleground
1960 Celtics Ash
1965 Hail To All
1984 Swale
1999 Lemon Drop Kid
2022 Mo Donegal

Post 7 — 14 winners

Year Horse
1933 Hurryoff
1937 War Admiral
1945 Pavot
1947 Phalanx
1949 Capot
1961 Sherluck
1968 Stage Door Johnny
1979 Coastal
1983 Caveat
1989 Easy Goer
1996 Editor’s Note
2007 Rags to Riches
2010 Drosselmeyer
2019 Sir Winston

Post 8 — 7 winners

Year Horse
1958 Cavan
1959 Sword Dancer
1976 Bold Forbes
1985 Creme Fraiche
1986 Danzig Connection
2006 Jazil
2020 Tiz the Law

Post 9 — 4 winners

Year Horse
1936 Granville
1998 Victory Gallop
2001 Point Given
2005 Afleet Alex

Post 10 — 1 winner

Year Horse
1995 Thunder Gulch

Post 11 — 3 winners

Year Horse
1982 Conquistador Cielo
2002 Sarava
2014 Tonalist

Post 12 — 1 winner

Year Horse
2013 Palace Malice

Post 13 — 1 winner

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