Horses to Watch: Add a juvenile and a resurgent 4-year-old

In this biweekly series, racing analyst J. Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.

New to the watch list

Adeera

Adeera didn’t run especially fast when winning her debut in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight on Friday at Churchill Downs; her final time of 1:04.95 seconds translated to a modest 53 Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form. But the 2-year-old daughter of Horse of the Year and Kentucky Derby winner Authentic has lots of long-term potential.

After all, Authentic didn’t peak until the second half of his 3-year-old year, and Adeera’s dam Majestic Presence previously foaled Santa Anita Handicap (G1) winner Newgate and Beaumont (G3) heroine Denim and Pearls. Adeera has the pedigree to improve with distance and maturity, so don’t be surprised if she makes steady progress throughout 2024 and into 2025 for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen.

Extra Anejo

Remember Extra Anejo? The Steve Asmussen trainee has shown flashes of brilliant during a career dotted with layoffs. He even ranked among the early favorites for the 2023 Kentucky Derby after winning his October 2022 debut at Keeneland by 9 1/2 lengths.

A brief 3-year-old campaign ended with a fourth-place finish, beaten 5 3/4 lengths, against tough competition in the Haskell (G1) in July 2023. But when Extra Anejo made his 4-year-old debut in a seven-furlong $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs last Thursday, he was back to his best, tracking the pace before taking over to win by 3 1/2 lengths.

Extra Anejo finished fast, sprinting his final three furlongs in about 35.35 seconds. He recorded a quick final time of 1:21.54 seconds, good for a 96 Beyer Speed Figure. If Extra Anejo can put together a complete campaign this season, the son of Into Mischief will have every chance to win one or more graded stakes.

Recent watch list winners

Highland Falls

Godolphin homebred 4-year-old Highland Falls secured his first graded-stakes victory when rallying to a sharp triumph in the 1 1/8-mile Blame (G3) at Churchill Downs. The son of Curlin out of Round Pond rated in fourth place behind splits of 23.31, 47.72 and 1:11.71, then finished fast (final three furlongs in about 36.47 seconds) to win by one length in 1:48.51 seconds. Highland Falls is gradually improving for high-percentage trainer Brad Cox and may win additional graded stakes before the year is over.

Ova Charged

The Unbridled Sidney (G3) winner successfully switched from turf to dirt for the Louisiana Legends Mademoiselle against Louisiana-breds at Evangeline Downs, leading all the way to win the 5 1/2-furlong sprint by one length under a hand ride in 1:04.44. Ova Charged has now won six straight races and 14 out of 17 lifetime starts.

Worth another try

Skelly

Talented sprinter suffered his first U.S. defeat since January 2023 when finishing second as the heavy favorite in the Aristides at Churchill Downs. But Skelly didn’t run badly. After breaking slowly, he recovered to set fractions of 21.73 and 44.19 seconds before succumbing late to finish one length behind the winner. I’ll keep him on my watch list and see if he bounces back next time.

Off the watch list

Pounce

Suffered her second straight stakes defeat when finishing a pacesetting third in the Penn Oaks at Penn National. It was a significant improvement from her 11th-place finish in Keeneland’s Appalachian (G2), but Pounce was nevertheless beaten 2 3/4 lengths, so I’ll want to see her get back in the winner’s circle or at least come close to victory before supporting her again.

Upcoming entries

Alva Starr

Alva Starr enjoyed a productive start to the year, winning the American Beauty and Madison (G1) before finishing second in the Derby City Distaff (G1). Her fine efforts against Grade 1 competition have stamped Alva Starr as a 3-5 morning line favorite to win Wednesday’s eighth race at Delaware Park, the Rehoboth, post time 4:00 p.m. EDT. She’s clearly the horse to beat from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective and should find the competition easier while dropping into the ungraded ranks.

Doncho

Speedy sprinter Doncho has won three of his four starts in impressive fashion. At Belmont at the Big A last month, he led all the way to win the Gold Fever by 2 1/2 lengths. Having proven his worth against stakes competition, Doncho looms as a formidable win threat while dropping in class for Wednesday’s eighth race at Churchill Downs, a 6 1/2-furlong allowance, post time 4:22 p.m. EDT.

Long Neck Paula

Long Neck Paula impressed when debuting in a 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs last month. Blasting out of the starting gate from post 11, she made the lead shortly after the start and drew off from there to win by 3 1/2 lengths in the sharp time of 51.56 seconds. A similar performance in Thursday’s ninth race at Belmont at Saratoga, the Astoria, post time 5:17 p.m. EDT, should make her a win threat.

Ways and Means

Ways and Means has competed well against tough competition in three straight starts. She finished a troubled second in last year’s Spinaway (G1) at Saratoga, then returned from a long layoff to run second in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) and fourth in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). Now she’s regrouping against easier competition for Thursday’s seventh race at Belmont at Saratoga, a one-mile allowance, post time 4:09 p.m. EDT, where she’s the 2-5 morning line favorite to take home top honors.