Toronto Maple Leafs free agent targets: The 10 best fits on defence

We covered the array of free agent forwards who would fit with the Maple Leafs here. Now, it’s time for the defencemen.

The pool of pending free agents on the back end isn’t nearly as deep, but there are at least 10 names who could work for the Leafs in some capacity.

Ideally, the Brendan Shanahan-Brad Treliving front office is adding two top-four defencemen this offseason, though that may prove challenging with the limitations of the free agent marketplace (not to mention the difficulties of making a trade) and the need to address other areas of the roster.

Not every player in this bunch meets top-four qualification. There’s a case to be made still for bringing each of these defenders in. We’re ranking them based on a combination of cost and fit.

10. Jalen Chatfield

Position: Right defence
Evolving Hockey’s contract projection: Five years, $4.1 million

This spot could have belonged to more proven, if aging, defenders like Dmitry Kulikov and Tyler Myers, and there’s a case to sign either one for cheap as a third-pairing type who will also kill penalties. Jalen Chatfield would be much more of a bet on upside. He just turned 28 and is coming off a postseason that saw him emerge into big, difficult minutes with Dmitry Orlov on what was essentially the Hurricanes’ No. 1 pair. Scratched early in the season on a loaded Carolina blue line, Chatfield went from averaging 15 minutes per game during the regular season to over 20 in the playoffs. Only Jaccob Slavin and Orlov played more among Hurricanes at even strength. Chatfield garnered more minutes than Brent Burns and a pending UFA who’s about to get paid and paid for good reason, Brady Skjei.

There’s some skill here…

And some toughness…

The Leafs could play Chatfield with Jake McCabe on what would be a No. 2 pair. That doesn’t feel strong enough for a team with Stanley Cup aspirations. A third pairing of Chatfield alongside Simon Benoit makes more sense, though what would that mean for pending RFA Timothy Liljegren? Chatfield is coming off a two-year contract that saw him playing for just above the NHL minimum. A 2-3-year deal for a cap hit of $2ish million seems much more likely than the projection above. If that’s the case and he continues to blossom, the Leafs would score some needed value on the back end.

9. Brandon Montour

Position: Right defence
Evolving Hockey’s contract projection: Three years, $6.5 million cap hit

Brandon Montour is bound for a much larger contract than that projection, something more like the six or seven-year term with a cap hit over $7 million. And you could make a case that the Leafs should consider being the team to give it to him. Montour would bring some moxie to the Leaf defence, some risk-taking, some goal-scoring, some flair. He definitely doesn’t play scared. Montour can chow down on huge minutes, including as a long-term replacement for Morgan Rielly on the point of PP1. Generally though, the fit isn’t especially clean. For one thing, Montour is smallish at 6-foot and 199 pounds, and we know this Leafs GM prefers the opposite. Montour also just turned 30. Were he to join the Leafs, Montour would almost certainly have to connect with McCabe as his proclivity for taking chances is too similar to Rielly for those two to play together. (McCabe, it should also be noted, has some of those same instincts.) Which means that in addition to Montour, the Leafs would need to add another high-end, and presumably pricey, defender to play with Rielly and defend top lines. (In Florida, the Panthers have Aaron Ekblad and Gustav Forsling to handle those duties.) That’s a lot of coin to shell out, more than arguably makes sense. Could the Leafs do it? Sure. Should they? Probably not.

8. Joel Edmundson

Position: Left and right defence
Evolving Hockey’s contract projection: One year, $1.2 million cap hit

We know this front office likes Joel Edmundson. And if the idea is to bring the soon-to-be 31-year-old back in a similar role that’s…OK? It only kinda works if the Leafs make two more meaningful upgrades in the top four, whether that’s through free agency or trade. Edmundson is only a third-pairing defender at this point, someone best suited to take up space and cross-check the heck out of foes for 17-18 minutes a night. His first playoff performance for the Leafs was so-so: The Leafs won only 42 percent of the expected goals when Edmundson was out there at five on five and were outscored 4-3. Edmundson’s limitations with the puck and with quicker opponents were evident, and his partnership with Liljegren bordered on disastrous (though things did improve somewhat in Games 5-7). It’s worth keeping in mind that Edmundson was on the Craig Berube-coached St. Louis team that won a Stanley Cup in 2019. A familiar face may be comforting for the new Leafs coach. Bring back Edmundson though and the Leafs are either committing to a Benoit-McCabe second pair (not good enough) or playing Edmundson and Benoit together on the third pair (questionable given their similar skillsets). There’s also this: Edmundson turns 31 in June, not old but not young either for a big-ish, slow-ish defenceman.

7. Matt Roy

Position: Right defence
Evolving Hockey’s contract projection: Five years, $6.1 million cap hit

Nine picks after the Leafs took Nikita Korostelev in the seventh round of the 2015 draft, the Kings grabbed Matt Roy out of Michigan Tech. He gradually developed into one of their most reliable defencemen, maybe the most reliable after Drew Doughty this past season. The best way to describe him might just be that he’s solid and not flashy, someone who’s going to use positioning and some physicality in defending. Roy blocked almost 200 shots last season, seventh-most in the NHL, while playing mostly alongside Vladislav Gavrikov. The Kings controlled his minutes, winning 56 percent of the actual and expected goals at five-on-five. Sign Roy and the idea would be to pair him with one of Rielly or McCabe on what would likely amount to the team’s go-to shutdown pair. Maybe Roy comes for less money and/or less term than say, Brett Pesce, and the Leafs can bring in a second legitimate top-four defender. Roy as the main attraction doesn’t feel like enough. He doesn’t have a long resume as an impact guy to feel like a sure thing, especially since he just turned 29. But as part of a broader solution, at the right price, Roy makes some sense.

Matt Roy was a seventh-round pick of the Kings. (Bob Frid / USA Today)

6. Brett Pesce

Position: Right defence
Evolving Hockey’s contract projection: Six years, $5.5 million cap hit

There was a time in the pre-TJ Brodie days when Brett Pesce’s name was all the rage as a potential fit for the Leafs’ blue line. The questions then about such an acquisition were partly about health. Those fears haven’t exactly borne out in Carolina: Pesce played 55 of 56 games in the 2020-21 season, 70 games the year after, all 82 during the 2022-23 season, and 70 again this past season. He did break his leg in the playoffs this spring though. Counting on Pesce to stay healthy as he enters his 30s carries obvious risk. He’s also coming off a season that saw his usage decline to just over 20 minutes per game, the second-lowest figure of his career and down from 22-plus minutes the season prior. The Hurricanes added Orlov last summer, so the slight drop-off makes some sense. But coupled with age and injury risk, it’s at least a minor red flag. It’s also reasonable to wonder what he’ll look like without either Skjei or Slavin, his two top-shelf partners in Carolina.

Pesce would be a natural fit to play with Rielly. He would be a huge defensive upgrade to the Leafs’ blue line, including on a penalty kill that needs help. Pesce will be looking for a lengthy commitment on his next deal, something like six years. A deal like that would sync up Rielly (who turned 30 in March) and Pesce for matching terms, keeping them both around until 2030. Is a Rielly-Pesce top pair worth that kind of long-term commitment?

5. Ian Cole

Position: Left and right defence
Evolving Hockey’s contract projection: One year, $2.5 million cap hit

Ian Cole obviously isn’t better than Montour, Roy, or Pesce. He just won’t come with anywhere near the same investment. He’s a stopgap solution who carries no long-term risk. The question with Cole is: How much does he have left at 35? Cole’s minutes dropped considerably in the second round against Edmonton. He had a strong regular season though, excelling in a supremely defensive role that included first-unit PK duty. Cole would be deployed in the same fashion for the Leafs. He’s best suited for third-pairing duty at this point in his career, though he might work in a pinch as the left-side complement to McCabe on the Leafs No. 2 unit. Cole is going to compete, he’s going to defend hard, and he’s going to block a ton of shots. He’s played in 129 NHL playoff games. The Leafs could sign Cole for a year along with one of the other higher-priced defenders on this list and piece together a solution that way — while hoping (praying!) that the bottom doesn’t drop out on Cole.

4. Ilya Lyubushkin

Position: Right defence
Evolving Hockey’s contract projection: One year, $1.5 million cap hit

If the Leafs can land only one significant upgrade in the top four, they could simply turn back (again!) to Ilya Lyubushkin to fill in. The 30-year-old is a known commodity, not necessarily to Berube, but to the organization at large. He’s shown he can fit next to Rielly, protect the net, defend the blue line, and bring some growl to the Leaf defence. Lyubushkin and Rielly logged the most five-on-five minutes of any Leafs pair in the playoffs: The Leafs outscored the Bruins 4-1 in those minutes and won almost 60 percent of the expected goals. There were clunky moments with the puck for Lyubushkin, which had the effect of making Rielly’s life tougher. That’s the drawback with Lyubushkin. He isn’t a legitimate top-four defenceman, not a guy who can gobble down 20 minutes a night, help in a variety of ways, and make his partner better. But because he’s familiar and cheap, potentially, he’s someone the Leafs have to consider if other solutions don’t pan out.

3. Brady Skjei

Position: Left and right defence
Evolving Hockey’s contract projection: Seven years, $7.5 million cap hit

Sign Brady Skjei and the Leafs would have a new No. 1 defenceman, an all-situations type who would crucially offer a meaningful injection of offence on the back end. Skjei can move the puck up and out of his own zone and has been quietly elite at scoring too. These are the only defencemen to score more than Skjei’s 40 goals over the last three seasons: Cale Makar (66), Roman Josi (64), Rasmus Dahlin (48), Erik Karlsson (46), and Victor Hedman (42).

And that’s with Skjei getting only secondary power-play time in Carolina.

The Leafs could use another offensive element like that on their back end. It’s really only Rielly at this point. (McCabe was the only Leaf defender to score in the playoffs.) Skjei would almost certainly replace Rielly on the point of PP1, giving the unit a shot threat it’s lacked. Skjei isn’t some one-dimensional defender either. For years, he’s played hard and heavy minutes on a pairing with Pesce, including on Carolina’s perennially elite penalty kill. Where does he fit with the Leafs? That’s a little cloudier given that Skjei is a lefty and the Leafs already have two lefties in their top four, albeit one in McCabe played his best last season on the right. A Skjei-McCabe twosome has some appeal, especially if the Leafs can land another defender on this list to play with Rielly. But that’s part of what makes a Skjei signing tricky. As arguably the top free agent defenceman, he’s going to require a long, pricey contract. Sign him and the Leafs might only be able to add another quasi-top-four guy like Lyubushkin for a top four such as this:

Skjei — McCabe
Rielly — Lyubushkin

Is that good enough?

Skjei also did just turn 30, only a few weeks younger than Rielly. Do the Leafs want to commit to the two of them as their cornerstones on defence?

2. Nikita Zadorov

Position: Left and right defence
Evolving Hockey’s contract projection: Three years, $4 million cap hit

Nikita Zadorov is coming off a terrific playoffs for Vancouver. He’s gigantic (6-foot-6, 248 pounds), he’s mean, he can play the left and right sides, and we know that Treliving adores him. It was Treliving, then the Flames GM, who signed Zadorov to the two-year contract ($3.75 million cap hit) that expires this summer and Treliving who tried to acquire Zadorov (along with the No. 1 guy on this list) from Calgary last season. Zadorov excelled with the Canucks playing with Cole on a pair that was buried in the defensive zone. Where would Zadorov fit with the Leafs? Almost certainly on a No. 2 pair with McCabe (playing the right) that functioned similarly. That feels like it’s asking a little too much out of both guys, Zadorov especially. And that’s part of the question with Zadorov: Is he worth top-four money (a cap hit that’s maybe as high as $5 million) when he’s probably best suited to being a No. 5 defenceman? Is it worth paying a little more for more of a sure thing in the top four like Skjei? Zadorov was interested in coming to the Leafs after he requested a trade from the Flames back in November and I’m confident that interest remains.

1. Chris Tanev

Position: Right defence
Evolving Hockey’s contract projection: Two years, $4.1 million cap hit

The fit today is pretty spot on. It’s the longer-term projection with Chris Tanev that’s less certain. Really, it comes down to this: How long do the Leafs think Tanev will remain an elite defender? Tanev will turn 35 in December. That makes him old for an NHL defenceman, but not quite the oldest. There were 19 older defencemen in the NHL this past season, many of whom continue to be effective – Burns, Cole, Kris Letang, Ryan McDonagh, and Doughty among them. The oldest in the bunch, Mark Giordano, remained effective until his age-38 season before falling off steeply at 39 and 40. All of which is to say it’s not inconceivable that Tanev can keep this up for a few more seasons.

It’s just a bet because decline can come in a hurry as the Leafs experienced this past season with Brodie, who’s even a little younger than Tanev. Contrary to the general perception, Tanev has been largely healthy the last few seasons (and/or he’s played through some things anyway): Tanev played in 75 games this past regular season, 65 games the season before that, all 82 during the 2021-22 season, and all 56 during the shortened 2020-21 season. But of course, with age comes the greater risk of injury, especially for a guy like Tanev who will block a shot with his face. That gutsiness is part of the appeal with Tanev. He would perfectly fill a void on the Leafs that’s been lacking since Jake Muzzin’s career came to an end, that of the gruff, top-notch defender who can battle top lines and headline a No. 1 penalty-killing unit. Unlike Muzzin, a left shot, Tanev, a righty, can slide in next to Rielly on the Leafs No. 1 pair and remain there for the foreseeable future. Tanev has had an excellent postseason. He’s going to draw tons of interest, likely a four-year deal that would take him to 38. Can the Leafs do better in a trade? If not, they may have to roll the dice on the hometown guy.

(Top photo of Nikita Zadorov: Jeff Vinnick / NHLI via Getty Images)

–Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference, Cap Friendly, and Puck Pedia