Mitch Marner trade scenarios: A ‘Who Says No?’ mailbag

Welcome to Part 2 of our ‘Who Says No?’ reader mailbag. We are turning the entire column over to readers who were trying to find a new home for Toronto Maple Leafs forward Mitch Marner. Going through all the questions and proposals submitted, and there were more than 500 within 24 hours, it felt as if every second idea had something to do with Marner.

For anyone not completely in tune with the minutiae of Marner’s status, let’s start with basic facts as they relate to his future. Marner is entering the final year of a six-year, $65.48 million contract. The last two years included a full no-move clause — a critical stumbling block to making any trade of this magnitude, in the real world, which is the only place it really matters. That can’t be stressed enough. It’s a complicated multi-step process because the player has the final say, which means any proposal or idea could be quashed if Marner flatly refuses to waive his no-move.

But for argument’s sake, let’s imagine a scenario in which that is not a factor, or at least, a factor that can be overcome.

Marner goes into next season as the Leafs’ fourth-highest-paid forward behind Auston Matthews ($13.25 million AAV), William Nylander ($11.5 million AAV) and John Tavares ($11 million AAV). Marner’s AAV is $10.93 million. Next year, the NHL salary cap will rise to $87.7 million. If all four of the aforementioned forwards remain in Toronto, they’ll collectively count $46.653 million against the cap. It doesn’t leave a lot left to pay for a supporting cast.

What would a team bidding for Marner be getting? Since the end of the 2018-19 season, Marner is eighth in NHL regular-season scoring with 509 points in 417 games. Matthews is seventh (517 points in 418 games). Marner is in elite company so there’s undeniably value there.

Marner is 27, a little undersized but kills penalties, and is a skilled playmaker and finisher but — as with many Leafs players — hasn’t been able to match his regular-season impact in the playoffs.

Every season produces a different series of lightning rods in Toronto and based on what our readers are telling us, Marner has replaced Tavares atop the list this year. One reader, Michael G., made me laugh out loud when he wryly commented: “I’m just here to watch all the Leaf fans try and come up with ways to dump Marner.”

By my count, Marner could be traded to almost half the teams in the NHL, if our readers have anything to say about it. So, let’s dive in and examine some possibilities.

(Questions have been edited for length and clarity)

Toronto trades Marner to Anaheim for Cam Fowler (50% retained), Ryan Strome (50% retained), 2024 first-round pick (Oilers pick) — Tommy M.

Toronto trades Marner to Anaheim for John Gibson and Trevor Zegras — Jonathan C.

I began here because I wanted to stress that if Marner does get traded, ideally, the Leafs will try to address the two greatest needs on their roster — namely, a top-four defenseman and a reliable goaltending option. It doesn’t necessarily have to be a starter in goal because Joseph Woll, on an entry-level contract, seems perfectly capable of playing up to half the games. But if the Leafs are in win-now mode, they need to find a reliable netminder. Remember, that’s what Treliving said when he signed Jacob Markstrom for the Flames as a free agent back in October 2020: He wanted to get that key position settled, once and for all.

Anaheim as a trading partner seems like a viable option, though as these offers are framed, Toronto says no. But merge a couple of the separate pieces and maybe we’re talking.
Fowler is rumored to want to play in Detroit at some point, closer to home. Toronto is closer, and he’s been Anaheim’s No. 1 for a while and could log heavy minutes with the Maple Leafs. Strome would have little interest to the Leafs, but depending upon their evaluation of goaltender Gibson, there could be the bones of a deal here. Gibson’s salary-cap hit — $6.4 million for three more years — might scare off some teams, but if Toronto sheds almost $11 million by trading away Marner, the Leafs could make the numbers work. There may be better options out there, but if you merge these two proposals, it gets intriguing. Fowler, Gibson and a first could conceivably work for Toronto. For Marner, the possibility of getting in on the ground floor of a rebuild that should turn the corner quickly might be something he’d consider.

Three-team trade:

L.A. to Toronto: Drew Doughty
Toronto to Pittsburgh: Marner
Pittsburgh to LA: Tristan Jarry & Jack St. Ivany — Jason F.

I was hoping someone would send Marner to Pittsburgh, so we could have the discussion about possibly reuniting him with Dubas, his former GM, in the Steel City.
Certainly, Pittsburgh could use a scorer of his ability after trading away Jake Guentzel, and the possibility of playing the next handful of years beside Sidney Crosby might make Marner waive his no-trade to make that happen.

Doughty is from London, Ont., and has often played his best hockey when the Kings visit Toronto. Given that L.A.’s trajectory seems more downward than upward, maybe Doughty would consider playing out his career with the Leafs. He’s 34, has only a modified no-trade clause and earns $11 million for three more years — so basically, Marner’s dollars and Doughty’s would be a wash.

The problem here is what’s in it for L.A.? Almost nothing. Why would they give up a player in Doughty who averaged 25 minutes and 48 seconds in ice time for them last year (second in the league only behind Washington’s John Carlsson) for a goalie (Jarry) who effectively lost the starting job to Alex Nedeljkovic last year, makes a lot of money ($5.375 million for four more years) and isn’t necessarily an upgrade on what they have (Talbot, David Rittich)?

Presumably, Jason F. thinks St. Ivany would have some appeal to the Kings because he’s from Manhattan Beach, Calif. But St. Ivany is 24 and played only 14 NHL games last year for Pittsburgh, 54 for their AHL affiliate in Wilkes-Barre. A fringe NHLer at best.

Also: L.A. is probably going to lose Matt Roy as an unrestricted free agent on the right side of the defense, which opens up a spot for Brandt Clarke next year. But the Kings are not taking a step backward by trading away a lynchpin defenseman and can find a better goaltending option than Jarry either via free agency, or trade.

Toronto and Pittsburgh would probably say yes. The problem is, L.A. vehemently says no.

A better idea would have been to make the deal less complicated; eliminate L.A. from the equation and see if either Erik Karlsson or Kris Letang were available/wanted to come to Toronto for Marner.

Karlsson is still just 33, has three years to go at a $10 million AAV and Pittsburgh discovered last year that two elite right-shot defensemen just doesn’t work. Karlsson back in the Atlantic, playing for Toronto in all those games against Ottawa? Part of me really wants to see that happen.

TOR trades: Marner, Knies, Woll, Benoit, 2024 first-round pick to St. Louis for Binnington, Kyrou, 2024 second-round pick.
The Leafs get a cost-controlled goal scorer and former Stanley Cup champion goalie while the Blues get a Selke Trophy candidate with a few promising prospects. — Kale D.

I was also happy to see a proposal involving the Leafs and St. Louis because, with Craig Berube now behind the bench in Toronto, it’s reasonable to think he might want to repatriate some of the players that gave him a chance to win the Stanley Cup back in 2019.

I think Kale D. has made the trade unnecessarily complicated here, so I’m going to rework it on his behalf.

Binnington would be the key piece going Toronto’s way, a goaltender who has proven he can win a Cup. He’s 30 and makes $6 million for three more years. The Blues also have three veteran defensemen, all of varying skill, all earning $6.5 million: Justin Faulk, Torey Krug and Colton Parayko. Faulk is 32, Krug 33 and both have three years remaining on their contracts. Parayko is 31 and has six years to go, but he’s the type of player, at 6-foot-6, that Treliving really likes. Berube presumably, too.

Binnington and Parayko for Marner and Woll?

Maybe. That would leave St. Louis with a young goaltending tandem (also Joel Hofer). And if Toronto wanted to keep Woll and made Knies available instead, then St. Louis would have to consider shopping for a goaltender elsewhere — not unheard of and not impossible to accomplish, given how many vets might be available this summer.

At some point, I expect to see Toronto and St. Louis do business. If the Leafs can’t pry Binnington loose, they might be able to extract a defenseman at the very least.

My dream scenario is Markstrom and Andersson to the Leafs for Marner, then Calgary flips Marner to Utah with Kadri for two firsts and three seconds.  — Stuart Y.

Toronto trades Marner to Calgary for Markstrom, 2nd round pick. — Nelson C.

Here we have two scenarios in which Treliving, the former Calgary GM, is making a deal with his replacement in Calgary, Craig Conroy, where the Leafs acquire a goaltender, Markstrom, that Treliving originally signed for the Flames.

It means there’s familiarity on both sides and presumably, Markstrom — who has full trade protection — would consider playing for the Leafs because they’re a good team and he knows Treliving. As we know, Calgary considered moving off Markstrom at the last trade deadline to open up a spot for prospect Dustin Wolf. The Flames also believe they have a capable backup in Dan Vladar, so Wolf can acclimate gradually to the NHL.

The problem is why would Calgary want Marner? Yes, the Flames say they want to be competitive in the midst of their rebuild, but Marner is unlikely to join a team that, at best, is going to hover in the mushy middle for a while. So, a flat no to the second scenario from both sides.

Now, the first scenario — though complicated — fits a little better. That’s where the Flames acquire Marner and then flip him to Utah along with Nazem Kadri for some of the Utah hockey club’s draft capital.

The Leafs get the goalie and the defenseman (Rasmus Andersson) they need at a cost they can afford. So, they probably say yes. The Flames unload the contracts of both Markstrom and Kadri, which signals a descent to the bottom, but adds five draft choices altogether. It would be bold, but the Flames might do it because, organizationally, they are taking a step back after trading away four key pieces last season (Elias Lindholm, Chris Tanev, Noah Hanifin and Nikita Zadorov).

Utah wants to make a splash in its inaugural season, and having Kadri’s playoff pedigree along with Marner’s skill sets them up as a much-improved team. They might say yes as well.

The only hitch: Does Marner waive to go to Utah? The only way I could see it happening is if they were to offer a massive extension.

But of all the trades suggested so far, this is the one I personally would most like to see happen because it’s just so definitive. Everybody gets something they really need as they plot a path forward.

GO DEEPER

Maple Leafs depth chart 1.0: What are the biggest needs this offseason?

Toronto trades Marner to Vegas for Shea Theodore and William Karlsson — John L.

Marner to Vegas for Shea Theodore and Brendan Brisson — Jack S.

Marner to Vegas for Theodore straight up and Toronto retains 50%. They might even have to throw in a pick. — Andrew C.

Vegas probably isn’t going to move Theodore, even though it has signed trade deadline acquisition Hanifin to an extension with a $7.35 million AAV. Theodore and Karlsson make the most sense financially, given Theodore is at $5.2 million and a year away from being an unrestricted free agent. Karlsson earns $5.9 million for three more years and while he had a bounce-back year this year, he doesn’t bring that sort of value anymore. But it would make the dollars work.

Marner for Theodore and a 50 percent retention also makes the dollars work. Toronto might say yes to that; Marner might say yes to Vegas, but is Vegas a more competitive team, with a greater chance of getting back into the Stanley Cup winners circle, by adding Marner and subtracting Theodore? No — though the idea of pairing Jack Eichel with Marner might give the Golden Knights some pause. Vegas likes to make bold swings, which is the only reason I’ll deem this highly unlikely rather than giving it a hard no.

Marner to Detroit for Lucas Raymond. — Sebastian S.

Just no. Raymond is 22, improving every season and cost-controlled for now: An RFA without arbitration rights. The Red Wings can either ink him long-term this summer or sign him to a bridge deal. But he’s a core piece going forward.

Chicago trades Seth Jones to Toronto for Marner. — Dave L.

This one made me think a little harder. Jones is 29. He is signed for six more years at $9.5 million. He has a full no-move. So probably a diminishing asset by the time Chicago’s playoff window opens. Would he waive it to go to Toronto and compete right away? For that matter, does Toronto believe Jones can be a true No. 1?

At one point, that was the general feeling around the NHL, which is how he earned that contract in the first place. Average time on ice matters to me, maybe more than to others, because it indicates a coach’s trust in a player. Jones was fourth in the league in TOI this year at 25:29 per night. You can get lost on a bad team sometimes.

If the Leafs thought Jones would be a difference-maker over the next four years of Matthews’ career, then I’m giving this a tentative yes.

Would Brad Treliving make a third trade involving Dougie Hamilton? (Tom Horak / USA Today)

A real hockey trade: Toronto sends Marner to New Jersey for Dougie Hamilton. — Brendan J.

Brendan J. clearly remembers that Treliving once traded for Hamilton (from Boston) and also once traded him away (to Carolina), so he’s familiar with his strengths and weaknesses. Hamilton is coming off a serious injury (a torn left pectoral muscle that required surgery) that limited him to 20 games last season and has a massive contractual commitment (four more years at a $9 million AAV) that may not reflect his current value. Moreover, while the Devils have a nice collection of young, emerging defensive talents, they clearly missed what Hamilton brought to the mix in his absence this year. Also, the Devils have more undersized forwards than they need. Adding another makes little sense. It doesn’t address their primary needs — for help in goal, primarily. I agree with the sentiment that more teams should try harder to make pure hockey trades, but here, both sides say no.

Toronto trades Marner to Minnesota for Marcus Foligno, Ryan Hartman and pick No. 13 in 2024. — Ryan K.

Reasonable value going both ways, and if neither Max Domi nor Tyler Bertuzzi re-signs with Toronto, Foligno and Hartman would fill their spots nicely. And the No. 13 pick could possibly be flipped for a defenseman or a goalie. For Minnesota, Marner would help flesh out a top six and maybe take some of the offensive pressure off Kirill Kaprizov. But it still leaves the Leafs with the problem of fleshing out their defense and goal. If you take the draft choice out of the proposal and slip Filip Gustavsson into the deal, which would leave the Wild with a tandem of Marc-Andre Fleury and Jesper Wallstedt next year, or maybe sneak Jonas Brodin into the mix, then it gets closer. It’s probably a no as framed here. But it could be the start of a negotiation between the teams if Marner sees Minnesota as a long-term option. Debate among yourselves if that is realistic.

Toronto trades Marner and Timothy Liljegren to Philadelphia for Travis Konecny, Rasmus Ristolainen, 2024 1st (from FLA), 2025 2nd (from ANA) — Nick H.

Toronto trades Marner and a 2024 5th round pick to Philadelphia for Travis Sanheim, Joel Farabee, 2024 2nd round pick, 2025 2nd round pick. — Matt C.

I don’t mind either of these ideas on a theoretical basis when viewed from the Toronto side. Sanheim would give the Leafs that top-four defensive option — he led all Flyers players with 23:48 minutes in average time on ice last season — and Farabee scored 50 points for the Flyers. The extra second-round picks help restock the Leafs’ draft capital, which was badly depleted by Dubas.

In the first scenario, the Leafs get two players (Konecny and Ristolainen) Treliving has liked at different times — though the difference is Konecny has real value at the moment and is probably what it might cost Philadelphia to move Ristolainen, who is a salary dump these days.

Overall, though, the problem is two-fold. One: It’s unlikely Marner would waive to go to Philadelphia because playing under coach John Tortorella can be an uncomfortable experience and not for everyone. Two: Philadelphia has no goaltending option available to address the Leafs’ secondary need.

Moreover, the Flyers wouldn’t surrender this much value unless they had Marner signed to a long-term extension. As framed here, Marner probably stops it in its tracks with a hard no, even if the teams might consider negotiating some version of it themselves.

(Top photo of Mitch Marner: Mark Blinch / NHLI via Getty Images)