20/7/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill, Winter Challenge day

A ten race card has been set down for Rosehill on Saturday for Winter Challenge Day. Weather is fine, track is soft (7) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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Back Me

1 Getafix (Bet Now: $7.00) has class and I’ll bank on that class getting him home. He resumes after a two run Autumn prep, where he was an electric debut winner on the Kenso, which meant he went to the Todman and didn’t disgrace himself behind Switzerland. His trial work to get ready has been quite strong and the grounding is there to run well fresh.

Danger

3 Mayfair (Bet Now: $3.10) lands on speed, likely in front, and off the debut run, I think he’ll take running down. He was on speed and leading when debuting at Randwick two weeks ago and was game in defeat but couldn’t quite see it through when a narrow second to Brave One. Better for the run under the belt, he’ll be hard to get past.

Long Shot

6 Prorata (Bet Now: $34.00) has been kept on ice for Greg Hickman since a dominant win on Heavy ground at Wagga. He lapped up the conditions and was quite dominant late in the piece, which followed an encouraging debut at Warwick Farm. Tick over trial was good and he looks talented enough to take this race out.

Back Me

12 Super Norwest (Bet Now: $9.00) for me. Matty Dale trained filly that ran over 1200m at Goulburn last time and while beaten as favourite, she had clear excuses. 1200m, IMO, is too far for her, especially on wet ground, and the Goulburn track was complete garbage. Back to 1100m and firmer footing, off prior efforts, she’s the one to beat.

Danger

3 Sir Ming (Bet Now: $7.50) has won at 1100m previously and does have a touch of quality on his side. He comes through the Clear Thinking Highway from a fortnight back when six weeks between runs, lost a plate during a race…I think there was enough there to say be forgiving. Better set up here, so don’t dismiss him.

Long Shot

15 Cumnock (Bet Now: $14.00) is a key chance for Brett Thompson. This guy ran two weeks ago in the Highway at Randwick when off the speed throughout but got clear air and kept chasing in a good effort behind a class mare, Clear Thinking. Back to 1100m, I think, is okay, and the depth here is nowhere near as strong.

Back Me

3 Nosey Parker (Bet Now: $26.00) looks to have returned in pretty good order for Paul Perry and should appreciate a rise to 1300m. He resumed two weeks ago over 1200m at Randwick where he got back off the speed, was keen, checked off heels…it was a mess so forgive and forget the run. He has run well at this level previously and with good upside, he’s worth an each way ticket.

Danger

14 Sumo Star (Bet Now: $27.00) is a leading contender for Gary Portelli. This gelding ran behind Ningaloo Star in the Midway a fortnight back where he looked all over the winner when presented but just found one better in Ningaloo Star in a blanket finish. 1300m is fine IMO and he was a few weeks between runs there so with room for improvement, rates highly.

Long Shot

5 Ceasefire (Bet Now: $27.00) is capable with his best. First run for Kim Waugh came at Newcastle where the market said he would need the run and that’s how it panned out when down the track behind Metallic Ruler. Better for the run under the belt and up in trip, hopefully a firmer deck, his best is more than good enough.

Back Me

1 Pure Alpha (Bet Now: $2.80), I think, picks himself. Chris Waller trained gelding that has been strong this time in, letting down with purpose to win two back on the Kenso before going to Randwick two weeks ago where he chased strongly from on speed but couldn’t quite get the win when second to Rhapsody Chic. Like him against this lot and is hard to beat I say.

Danger

7 Tiger Town (Bet Now: $35.00) is several weeks between runs for Greg Hickman since racing over 1400m at Rosehill where he struggled on the bog track but that said, he was far from disgraced in defeat behind a nice horse, Captain Furai. Firmer footing will help his cause and overall, I don’t think this is an overly deep race.

Long Shot

6 Influential (Bet Now: $21.00) is a very interesting runner. He resumed behind Franz Josef several weeks back over 1500m at Rosehill. He got back off the speed but was never a factor behind the Ryan/Alexiou galloper. Tick over trial was quite good and with room for improvement, he can run a much improved race at odds.

Back Me

9 Miss Jennifer (Bet Now: $9.00) should appreciate a rise to 1200m. Danny Williams trained mare that ran third to Shezanalister a fortnight back at Randwick. She got back to near last in the run and worked home with real purpose in a strong effort, finishing a close up third. If she can settle closer, she’ll be a leading threat.

Danger

6 Molly Nails (Bet Now: $9.50) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness for Matty Dale. This mare ran behind Shezanalister two weeks ago at Randwick where she got back off the speed and although never threatening, she kept finding the line and was quite good in defeat. Good track/distance record and takes beating against these.

Long Shot

2 Audette (Bet Now: $17.00) is a slight query at 1200m at this level but with her racing style, she’ll give herself every chance. She attempted to lead throughout two weeks back at Randwick where she gave a decent sight from the front but just couldn’t quite see it through when fourth to Shezanalister. She was several weeks between runs there so with room for improvement, she rates highly as a knockout hope.

Back Me

6 Kazou (Bet Now: 
$SP.00) is a speedy mare for Chris Waller that I feel is best suited at the short course. She ran three weeks ago over 1200m here, producing sustained speed from the front and credit to her, she was there to be beaten but she found under pressure to fend them off and get the win. Like her at 1100m, and with her racing style, she’ll take running down.

Danger

2 Contemporary (Bet Now: $3.70) is absolutely humming for James Cummings and rates highly. He was a strong winner at Randwick a fortnight back, giving them a start and a beating, launching late to finish over the top. He’ll be very strong at the end of 1100m. Question is, does he have enough early toe to stay in range?

Long Shot

4 Quick Tempo (Bet Now: $19.00) is a beauty for Mick Minervini and is dangerous against these. He ran several weeks back in the Bob Charley over 1100m at Randwick where he got a fair way out of his ground and while he was never a winning threat, his finale in defeat was quite good behind Mnementh. Fast run 1100m, I think, is okay, and is hard to beat if he can settle closer.

Back Me

2 Age Of Sail (Bet Now: $3.40) is bursting to win and I think she gets a golden opportunity here. Kris Lees trained gelding that has been strong in two runs this time in, the latest being over 2000m at Randwick two weeks ago where you could easily make a case to say he should have won but just got very wide in the straight for some reason. I think hard fit and 2400m, firmer deck, he’s a near good thing.

Danger

4 Perfect Play (Bet Now: $9.00) has been thereabouts in all runs this time in for Annabel Neasham since arriving from the UK. He ran fourth in the race won by Strathay a fortnight back at Randwick. He tried hard from off the speed but couldn’t quite get there and seemingly had his chance. Racing like 2400m suits so not dismissing him.

Long Shot

7 Funambulist (Bet Now: $20.00) brings solid form lines. Three weeks between runs since contesting the Stayers Cup at Rosehill where he got a fair way out of his ground and while he was never a winning threat, he kept finding the line and was really good in defeat behind Speycaster. Back to this level, he’s hard to beat.

Back Me

6 King Of The Castle (Bet Now: $4.80) looks hard to beat for Joe Pride. I think you can make a case to say he should have won the Winter Stakes two weeks ago. He just got badly held up at the wrong time when wanting to build the revs and drove hard late to just miss out on picking up Tamerlane. If the breaks go his way, I think he takes beating.

Danger

1 Tamerlane (Bet Now: $5.00) is a beauty for James Cummings and commands respect, especially off his win in the Winter Stakes. He got a lovely run in transit on speed before being clicked up in the straight and although he had to dig in late to get there, he got the win. Great record at Rosehill, good racing style, he’s one of the leading contenders.

Long Shot

4 Blaze A Trail (Bet Now: $21.00) is four weeks between runs for Ciaron Maher since resuming in the Eye Liner at Ipswich where I was quite keen on him. But, he copped a really ordinary steer from Maloney and it ended up being a car crash. Convinced he is flying and if the track does dry out, he comes right into play even more so.

Back Me

3 Chorlton Lane (Bet Now: $2.35) has to be given another chance. He was a tick under two months between runs when racing three weeks ago over 1400m at Caulfield where he just lacked the fitness and wasn’t 100% happy on the shifty track I thought so I am going to be very forgiving of the run behind Rheinberg. Has that run under the belt and has credits in the bank to be given another chance, especially with a kind map and J Mac on.

Danger

8 Elson Boy (Bet Now: $6.50) is an absolute beauty for Dar Lunn and has to rate highly. He ran over 1200m two weeks ago at Randwick when on speed and as always, he gave a very strong kick, but just couldn’t quite see it through when second to Contemporary. Good racing style, back up in trip, flying…hard to beat.

Long Shot

5 Much Much Better (Bet Now: $16.00) lands on speed and is tough. Sara Ryan trained gelding that ran fourth to Contemporary. He was on speed alongside Elson Boy and was as game as ever, but just couldn’t quite see it through when fourth. If he somehow finds the front and rolls, he’s a tough horse to get past.

Back Me

2 Able Willie (Bet Now: $6.00) is an enigma of sorts for Chris Waller but I will say that he has been more consistent this time in. He ran three weeks ago over this track/distance where he got a fair way out of his ground but rocketed to the line late, just missing out on the win when a narrow second to Kazou. Depth not as deep here and if he can get a drag into the race, he’ll be very effective at the end.

Danger

14 Smashing Eagle (Bet Now: $9.00) has an awful racing pattern but he clearly has an engine under the hood. He ran in the Kazou race from three weeks ago and I’m forgiving because he was back near last in an on speed domination and tried to make up the required ground. He did make ground but was never threatening. He can launch so hopefully for his fans, he gets the set up.

Long Shot

3 King Of Naples (Bet Now: $11.00) comes through the Kazou race from three weeks back. He had a suck run in behind the speed and although he was held up at times, he seemingly had his chance when fifth, beaten a few lengths. He’s hard fit now and he had trialled well prior to the resumption so keen to see how he goes, especially on an improving track.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 6 Kazou

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 3 Chorlton Lane

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 9 Miss Jennifer

Quaddie (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 2, 4, 7, 8

Leg Two: 1, 6

Leg Three: 3

Leg Four: 2, 3, 6, 14, 15

$50 Investment = 125% of the dividend if successful.