Blue Jays balance college-heavy Draft with a few high-upside picks

TORONTO — As the Blue Jays turn one eye toward an uncertain future, these MLB Draft classes and the prospects they flood into Toronto’s farm system only become more important.

Toronto entered 2024 with the 24th-ranked system, and not much has happened to improve that number, so the 21 picks the club made in this year’s Draft will need to bring some success stories into the organization.\

After the Blue Jays landed Trey Yesavage — who should immediately become a top-five prospect in the system — in the first round, here’s what we saw from the rest of their Draft:

Another heavy college Draft
The Blue Jays continued to stock up on arms, keeping their balance of going heavy on the college side with a few upside plays from high school. Zoom out a bit and this strategy applies to their entire Draft class.

Sixteen of Toronto’s 21 selections were NCAA picks, including 10 of its first 11, which lines up with how the club has approached its past few classes. It’s been encouraging to see the Blue Jays chase upside in the early rounds of late, but for the most part, they stuck with college picks who can hit the ground running in the Minor Leagues.

The drawback to this strategy is that it can limit the long-term upside. Drafting 17-year-olds out of high school — much like signing 16-year-olds internationally — comes with far greater risk. It also comes with incredible rewards when a club hits, though, and the Blue Jays don’t just need future pieces, they need a couple of future stars.

This year’s early upside play is left-hander Johnny King IV, selected in the third round. King doesn’t turn 18 until July 28, and he comes with incredible physical upside. The Blue Jays need to hit the jackpot on a handful of picks like King to balance out their “safer” NCAA picks.

The Blue Jays have a type
This organization has started to take some bigger risks on upside bats in recent years — like Arjun Nimmala (No. 3 prospect), who was selected in the first round of the 2023 Draft — but the Blue Jays have mostly stuck to a certain type of hitter.

Toronto likes to target high-contact bats with advanced plate approaches, even if the power is lagging behind. Think of someone like Spencer Horwitz as a best-case example of this.

Third baseman Sean Keys (Round 4), outfielder Nick Mitchell (Round 4C), catcher Aaron Parker (Round 6), outfielder Eddie Micheletti Jr. (Round 8) and outfielder Carter Cunningham (Round 10) all fit this profile fairly well — though Parker does bring some serious pop for a catcher. This group is led by Keys, who walked (35) more than he struck out (26) at Bucknell, had a very low swing-and-miss rate and is described as a likely “analytics darling” by MLB Pipeline.

This all tracks with what you’re seeing from the Blue Jays at the Major League level, for better or for worse. This organization is working to develop approaches and contact rates — ideally hard contact rates — and it isn’t taking as many risks on light-tower power.

Saving up for a swing?
The most interesting pick the Blue Jays made came in Round 12, at No. 367 overall.

Here, they selected high school pitcher Carson Messina, whom MLB Pipeline had ranked as the No. 222 prospect in the class with a commitment to play college ball at South Carolina. That’s where Carson’s older brother, Cole, has played, but it doesn’t look like the Messina brothers will be reuniting with the Gamecocks.

After Cole was drafted by the Rockies in the third round (No. 77 overall) Carson could have been selected in the rounds that soon followed, but bonus-pool money is always a factor with high school arms. Draft slots in Rounds 11-20 do not have an assigned value like you see in the earlier rounds, but teams can spend up to $150,000 on each without incurring any impact on their bonus pool. Any money spent over $150,000 on a pick in Rounds 11-20 does count against that pool, though, which is what the Blue Jays would have worked through the night to forecast.

For example, the Brewers selected Justin Chambers in Round 20 last year, but they were able to sign him away from his NCAA commitment for $547,500 after saving some pool space between Rounds 1-10. Now, the Blue Jays can try to work the same magic to land Messina, the 6-foot-2, 225-pound right-hander who throws 93-95 mph and is already reaching higher at his peak. Messina is all power and all effort, but if the Blue Jays can get him into their system, he’ll be a fascinating project.