HORSE RACING DAY 5: Andrew Champagne’s picks, analysis, bankroll

SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. —

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,128.50

Steeplechase racing isn’t for everyone, but today’s Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick was a blast to handicap. It’s the Wednesday opener, and even if you’re not a hurdles expert, there’s plenty to dig into.

If the names Abaan and L’Imperator look familiar, there’s a reason. They’re both graded stakes winners on the flat who have continued their careers over fences. Pickanumber, meanwhile, comes to the U.S. after four wins in five starts this season in Great Britain. Add a few rock-solid jump horses, and you’ve got a legitimate stakes race.

As a reminder, the steeplechase race is not included in the early Pick Five. On days when there is a steeplechase race, that wager starts in the second race, and the early Pick Four begins in the third.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Taking a swing against a favorite worked out as well as it could have. 18-1 shot Unstable Prince pulled off an upset in the eighth, heavy chalk Star of Mystery rolled in the ninth, and a $20 investment into four $5 doubles returned $222.50.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I sincerely hope we get the 4-1 morning line price on #2 HUE in the sixth race. I think she’s set to improve considerably at second asking against what looks like a very suspect group. I’ll keep it simple with a $30 win bet on that runner, one that doubles as my best bet of the Wednesday program.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Hue, Race 6

Longshot: Amy’s Light, Race 8

Race 1:

L’Imperator

Pickanumber

Abaan

#5 L’IMPERATOR (3-1): Broke through to win a Grade 1 downstate last time out (one that was supposed to be held here during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival, but got washed out). He’s proven without Lasix, seems to be in top form, and gets a few pounds from the likely favorite; #7 PICKANUMBER (2-1): Turned into a stakes horse overseas and most recently thumped 16 other jump horses by 15 lengths. If he brings his European form stateside for this high-percentage outlet, that could be good enough to top this classy bunch; #2 ABAAN (9/5): Is on a four-race win streak, including a few wins over my top selection. He carries this field’s top-weight assignment, though, and must race over hurdles without Lasix for the first time. I respect him, but at his likely price, I’ll try to beat him in a fascinating renewal of the Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick.

Race 2:

Save Time

Refuse to Lose

Fazools

#2 SAVE TIME (7/5): Has improved, figures-wise, in every start to date for Chad Brown and seems like a logical favorite. She chased a slow pace in her first two-turn outing downstate, and another step forward would likely make her tough; #5 REFUSE TO LOSE (4-1): Stretches out to two turns after a solid second and is bred to love this trip. This daughter of Belmont winner Union Rags came flying late here last month and should get some pace to chase; #6 FAZOOLS (2-1): Ships up from Monmouth and is the other half of Brown’s potent 1-2 punch in here, but I have some doubts. Her debut race sure seemed like it collapsed up front, and while she made up a bunch of ground, I’m just not sold on that event’s quality.

Race 3:

Practically Summer

Vehemente

Bellacose

#6 PRACTICALLY SUMMER (7/2): Hammered for $145,000 at auction last year, and while Bill Mott trainees sometimes need a race, this one has turned some heads in the mornings. Her dam was a first-out winner, and that broodmare is a half-sister to Grade 2 winner and millionaire Zivo; #1 VEHEMENTE (9/5): Has every right to be a very precocious filly. She’s by red-hot sire Vekoma, and she comes in off of a bullet drill here last week. The rail draw, though, is a concern, and this solid barn has a reputation for taking its time with talented horses rather than having them fully primed on debut; #7 BELLACOSE (6-1): Sold for $82,000 late last year and debuts for a barn that sent out the winner of last week’s Grade 3 Sanford. Her second dam is Grade 3 winner Bahnah, and the most recent half-mile gate drill is pretty encouraging.

Race 4

Sharper Gal

Pebble Lane

Permed

#5 SHARPER GAL (5/2): Takes a big drop from a starter allowance race to a claiming event for non-winners of two. Before the last-out clunker, she aired in a sprint at Churchill Downs, and a return to form would make her a major player; #6 PEBBLE LANE (12-1): Is an opportunity to use one of my favorite angles in racing. This one was off more than a year after a two-back clunker, then almost certainly needed the last-out effort. If she gets back to her late 2022 form, she’s got a chance at a big price; #3 PERMED (3-1): May be one of the favorites, but I have some doubts. She ran in some pretty tough maiden races as a 2-year-old, graduated for a $40,000 tag at Gulfstream, then showed up at Monmouth and did no running as a 2-1 favorite on turf. Here, she’s back on dirt, at a tricky distance, for a very, very low claiming tag given her pedigree. Her best race could win, but red flags abound.

Race 5

Ichiban (MTO)

Olivia Maralda

A Primera Vista

#9 OLIVIA MARALDA (8/5): Fired a big shot in the Grade 1 Gamely at Santa Anita, where she was a close-up second behind a high-quality mare. She takes a massive class drop into the optional claiming ranks, adds Lasix, and maintains top rider Flavien Prat; #1 A PRIMERA VISTA (10-1): Has won three in a row since adding Lasix for the first time and gets a major class test here. Inside speed can be tough on the inner turf, and it’s always notable when Frankie Dettori gets on a talented grass horse for the first time; #2 BE YOUR BEST (7/2): Looked like a future star back in 2022, when she won two races at the Spa (including the P.G. Johnson). However, she hasn’t won since and runs against non-stakes opponents for the first time in almost two years. She could wake up and run well, but this is hardly a soft spot for the level.

Race 6:

Hue

Parade Ring

Sassy Allie

#2 HUE (4-1): Didn’t run well in her debut, which was rained off the turf. Her bottom-side pedigree is all grass, and I think she may have learned a lot in her initial outing. The class drop certainly doesn’t hurt, and ignore this barn at your peril; #6 PARADE RING (9/2): Runs for a tag for the first time and debuted with a solid third here last summer. This barn has had a year to forget but the horses that like this turf sprint route can often wake up in these races; #10 SASSY ALLIE (10-1): Is another whose debut was moved to the main track. She’s since worked almost exclusively on turf, which seems like a clue, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., rides back when he almost certainly had several options.

Race 7:

Theresasilverlinin

Obrigada

She Caught My Eye

#10 THERESASILVERLININ (2-1): Is one of two in here for Mike Maker, who looks to get going after a tough start to the met. This filly, though, gets a cushy outside draw, top speed rider Luis Saez, and a race shape that should play to her front-running style; #7 OBRIGADA (8-1): Gets a significant rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., after a race out of the Wilson chute that, for her, was probably over at the start. Blinkers go on, and the recent uptick in her workouts includes a four-furlong bullet earlier this month; #9 SHE CAUGHT MY EYE (5-1): Makes her first start since October and has every right to contend if she’s ready to run. She was second here in a similar spot a season ago, and it also helps that she’s got a win at this tricky seven-furlong distance.

Race 8:

Amy’s Light

Soloshot

Bossy Jeans

#8 AMY’S LIGHT (20-1): Is strictly a value play in a race where I have no strong opinion. Her race two back on turf against open company was pretty good, and while the two-turn trip is a question mark (as it is for almost every horse in this field), I’m confident turf is the surface she wants, and we’ll likely get a very appealing price; #3 SOLOSHOT (4-1): Beat a number of these going shorter last time out downstate and could cap off a big day for Irad. She’s got plenty of early speed and should be prominent from the jump; #10 BOSSY JEANS (9/2): Is the only horse in this field with a win going two turns on turf. That came in a maiden claimer downstate, but that was also her first try since November. It’s possible something’s clicked as she’s gotten older, and the presence of Luis Saez is a plus.

Race 9:

Maturity Date (MTO)

Pay the Bills

Hill entry

#13 PAY THE BILLS (7/2): Needs a scratch to draw in but figures to be a handful if she does. The runner-up from her debut, Strife, came back to run well here last week, and this is a significantly weaker field. Add in the likelihood of a step forward at second asking, and I think you have a likely winner; #1 TRUE MYTH (9/2): May have needed her most recent race, where she steadied, raced last early, and rallied to finish a better-than-it-looked fifth. Blinkers go on second off the bench, and I don’t think she needs to improve much to be a factor; #6 CLASSIC CARA (8-1): Responded to the drop in class last time out with a second-place finish at odds of 22-1. Javier Castellano seemed to get along with her pretty well that day. He’s back in the irons here, with a better draw, and she could sit an ideal stalking trip just off the speed.

Originally Published: July 17, 2024 at 12:01 a.m.