Predicting Which 5 Massive NBA Contracts Will Age the Worst

Bloated NBA contracts have always posed a threat to building successful teams, yet new second apron rules affecting both trades and future draft picks should have franchises even more wary about their finances.

Players like Bradley Beal, Zach LaVine and Ben Simmons making $40 million or more per season have severely handicapped their own teams, even if some are still high-level starters. Giving max contracts to non-max players is going to cripple franchises moving forward.

It’s more important than ever to identify contracts that are going to age poorly and attempt to get out from under them while the player is still performing at a high level (the Washington Wizards trading Beal to the Phoenix Suns last summer, for example).

The following five contracts may look OK now but will be among the worst in the league in the 2027-28 season due to the player’s age, projected production and other factors.

Note: All salary data via spotrac.com.

Salary in 2027-28 Season: $36,413,790 (player option)

Salary Cap Percentage: 19.4

Age in 2027-28 Season: 33

The trade market for Jerami Grant will never be better than it is right now for the Portland Trail Blazers.

Grant, 30, is coming off a strong season for an awful Blazers team where he averaged 21.0 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 0.8 steals and made 40.2 percent of his threes. He finished second on the team in scoring and shot attempts yet can expect to see his role decrease on an already young team that has continued to add young talent.

Portland traded for Deni Avdija this summer, a 23-year-old who will start at one of the forward positions. Scoot Henderson should take a big step forward in role and production. Donovan Clingan was selected with the No. 7 overall pick, and Anfernee Simons, Shaedon Sharpe, Deandre Ayton and others will all need their shots as well. Grant’s role is only going to be reduced moving forward if he stays on a rebuilding Blazers team.

His current $29.8 million salary isn’t especially scary right now. Teams in win-now mode such as the Los Angeles Lakers, Golden State Warriors or Los Angeles Clippers could talk themselves into trading for Grant.

But by 2027-28, paying a 33-year-old Grant to be a fourth or fifth guy on a championship team over $36 million is going to be rough.

Grant’s defense has also deteriorated in recent seasons. His team was better without him on the floor for the first time since the 2019-20 season. He’s long been one of the worst rebounders at his position and last year saw his highest turnover rate (10.5 percent) since 2016-17.

Grant could still be a good three-point shooter and serviceable defender in three years, but he’ll be so overpaid that the Blazers should try to trade him now.

Salary in 2027-28 Season: $52,298,736

Salary Cap Percentage: 27.9

Age in 2027-28 Season: 33

The ink is still drying on the four-year, $188.9 million contract the Indiana Pacers gave Siakam this summer. The contract has the potential to go south rather quickly.

Siakam is already 30 and has made just two All-Star appearances in his eight seasons. He was good following a trade to the Pacers (21.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 54.9 percent shooting overall) but is going to continue to be a fringe All-Star moving forward. With Tyrese Haliburton serving as the face of the franchise, the Pacers would likely need to be a top-four seed in the East for Siakam to have a chance at joining his teammate at the All-Star Game.

No one is debating whether Siakam will still be good in three years. He still looks like a potential No. 2 option on a championship team, which his new max contract assumes.

The Toronto Raptors traded him in part because they didn’t want to give Siakam a potential supermax contract. The Pacers were lucky Siakam agreed to re-sign without adding on a fifth year, although $53 million is still a massive amount that no player in NBA history will have crossed until Stephen Curry does next season.

Siakam’s swing rating following a trade to the Pacers (minus-0.4, 52nd percentile) was a little concerning, especially after he finished between the 74th and 97th percentiles the past five years in Toronto.

For a small-market team like the Pacers featuring two players on max deals and a looming contract decision on Myles Turner next summer, Siakam needs to play like an All-Star or this money will cripple the team in a few years.

Salary in 2027-28 Season: $62,786,601 (player option)

Salary Cap Percentage: 33.5

Age in 2027-28 Season: 34

Anthony Davis agreed to a three-year, $175.4 million contract extension last year that will kick in during the 2025-26 season. As a result, his contract will go from $43.2 million in 2024-25 all the way up to $62.8 million by 2027-28, assuming Davis picks up his player option.

For a player approaching his mid-30s with a history of injuries, this has to be a concern.

For now, Davis is still one of the best players in the NBA. He was mostly healthy and dominated on both ends of the floor last season.

But even having played 76 games last year, Davis has only averaged 52 healthy appearances over the past four years.

This contract puts Davis on the same level of Nikola Jokić and Giannis Antetokounmpo, players who have combined to win five of the past six MVP awards and led their teams to championships. Both are also two years younger than Davis, who projects at best as a No. 2 option on a championship team moving forward.

Even at age 34, Davis will be taking up nearly the maximum allowed (35 percent) of the Lakers’ cap space, making it more difficult to lure star free agents if LeBron James has retired or left in free agency.

Los Angeles has to hope Davis’ good health from last season can last for four more years or this contract will be one of the worst in the NBA.

Salary in 2027-28 Season: $61,015,192 (player option)

Salary Cap Percentage: 32.5

Age in 2027-28 Season: 32

Karl-Anthony Towns is set to begin a four-year, $220.4 million supermax deal with the Minnesota Timberwolves, a deal that tops Stephen Curry’s $215.3 million contract, Joel Embiid’s $213.2 million deal and Luka Dončić’s $215.2 million five-year agreement.

Like others on this list, Towns is a good player who should be paid a lot. This is MVP-caliber player money, however, a ceiling the three-time All-Star will never reach.

Towns is the second-best player on his own team and only slightly improves Minnesota’s core statistically when he’s on the floor. The Wolves had a net rating of plus-9.3 when their Big Three of Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert, and Towns were all in the game together last season. With just Edwards and Gobert in and Towns on the bench, this number still stood at plus-9.0.

Towns jumping from a max deal to a supermax is mostly why the Wolves have flown past the second luxury tax apron and now face myriad roster-building restrictions.

His production (21.8 points, 8.3 rebounds, 3.0 assists) is far from supermax-worthy on this group, especially as Edwards continues his meteoric rise.

There are also durability issues to consider here. Towns has only played an average of 50 games in the past five years, including missing time due to knee surgery last season. In the 20 games that he missed, the Wolves still went 14-6.

Towns is a talented player, one of the best shooting big men in the league and a key piece to the Wolves’ success. He’s also wildly overpaid on this new contract, one that will have him earning Nikola Jokić and Giannis Antetokounmpo money moving forward.

Salary in 2027-28 Season: $56,586,670 (player option)

Salary Cap Percentage: 30.2

Age in 2027-28 Season: 37

Watching the Philadelphia 76ers sign 34-year-old Paul George to a four-year, $211.6 million max deal is like watching the Godfather trilogy. Parts I and II will be really good before an inevitable collapse.

There’s a reason the Los Angeles Clippers were only willing to offer George a three-year deal. Even the NBA’s CBA limited George from signing a five-year contract because of the over-38 rule.

As good as George is now, he’s only going to get worse in his mid-30s.

A 37-year-old George is going to be making more money in the 2027-28 season than players like Anthony Edwards, Donovan Mitchell, Jalen Brunson, Ja Morant, Tyrese Haliburton and Zion Williamson, all of whom will still be in their mid-20s-to-early-30s. Even teammate Tyrese Maxey will be on the books for $13 million less than George.

The Sixers knew this when they went after George, likely needing to include the fourth year to get him to leave Los Angeles and head East.

The pressure will be intense. If Philly wins a title in the next 2-3 years with George playing at a high level, it will be worth suffering through a bad contract in Year 4.

George now joins Bradley Beal as No. 3 options making over $50 million a year, a strategy that hasn’t exactly worked out for the Phoenix Suns. George is the more versatile two-way player, but is also three years older and under contract for an additional season.

Sixers fans better enjoy the start of the George era, as it certainly won’t end well.