The final men’s Major of the year is upon us as the stars of the game descend on Scotland’s west coast to battle it out at Royal Troon Golf Club.
The Claret Jug and title of Champion Golfer of the Year are up for grabs at the historic Ayrshire links, where Henrik Stenson outdueled Phil Mickelson in an epic 2016 Open last time out.
So who will be picking up the famous trophy this year? Golf Monthly’s Barry Plummer has already revealed his Open Championship betting tips – but what about the rest of the team?
We take a look at who our staff members think will win, or at least go well, with a pick from the favorites list as well as a good outside bet (50/1)…
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Favorite: Xander Schauffele
Troon is a ball strikers golf course and the American has been highly impressive from tee-to-green this year. He also has a sneak good Open record without having won it (4 top-10s in 7 attempts) which shows that he has the game for links golf. Throw in the fact that he’s now a Major winner, playing pressure-free golf and Schauffele should be a genuine contender
Outsider: Cameron Young
You might think this a strange shout given the fact that he’s yet to win as a professional. However, that duck will surely go soon and he’s shown an appetite for the big events. Most notably, he finished second to Cameron Smith at St Andrews in 2022. He’s in good form (two top-10s in his last two outings) and he’s got the game for Troon.
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Favorite – Tommy Fleetwood
Tommy is playing some very consistent golf right now. He’s not missed a cut since the Arnold Palmer Invitational back at the start of March, finished T3 at the Masters and T16 at the US Open, has his long standing caddie Ian Finnis back on the back after a long lay off with health issues, loves links golf and finished in the top 10 at the Open last year. This is going to be the tournament where Tommy breaks his Major duck.
Outsider – Matt Southgate
Matt seems to be turning a corner with his game after a recent poor run. He finished T4 in Germany recently after getting through at final qualifying and finished T12 when the Open was last at Troon in 2016, so will have fond memories of the course and loves this style of golf.
Nick Bonfield
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Favorite – Xander Schauffele
What’s that they say about London busses? Schauffele has been a class act for some time and he played golf of an extraordinarily high standard in winning his maiden Major at the PGA Championship. Now he’s got one under his belt, I think he’ll push on. Plus, he’s proved he’s adept in links conditions. He finished in a tie for 2nd at Carnoustie in 2018 and has registered three top-26 returns in his last three Open starts.
Outsider – Nicolai Hojgaard
Hojgaard is ready to make a real mark on the world stage – he’s simply too good not to. His best result in a Major came at this year’s Masters and he notched a top-25 finish last year at Royal Liverpool.
Alison Root
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Favorite – Ludvig Aberg
He might not have been on the scene that long and has limited links experience, but with accurate driving and iron play, he’s got the ability and the game to win big at Royal Troon. With two runner-up and six top-10 finishes this year, he should definitely be knocking on the door.
Outsider – Justin Rose
Rose came through qualifying with flying colours to earn a spot at Royal Troon and this will be his 21st appearance at this championship, which has served him well in the past. The quality of Rose’s game, you can never right him off because when he’s on song, he’s as good as anyone on a links layout.
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Favorite – Rory McIlroy
I can’t remember the last time I picked McIlroy to win a Major but I thought after Pinehurst he’d be able to bounce back so I’ll stick with my guns. He’s bounced back so many times in his career but this would undoubtedly be the most special. He’s far too good to be remembered for his US Open ‘choke’ so let’s hope he can write the wrong. He played well at the Scottish Open so looks to be ready to go again at a Major.
Outsider – Dean Burmester
There’s certainly plenty of outsiders you can make a case for. However, something about Dean Burmester is standing out for me. He’s won three times since the end of November and is a seasoned pro playing the best golf of his career. Locke, Player, Els and Oosthuizen have all won the Claret Jug, could he be the fifth South African?
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Favorite – Rory McIlroy
I feel after his US Open heartbreak he is going to be more determined than ever to finally get over the line. The winning score at Troon is often double digits under-par, so should should suit his aggressive style of play and big-hitting.
Outsider – Ryan Fox
I don’t think he’ll win, but if I were to go E/W I would be tempted to go Fox as he hasn’t missed a Major cut in his last seven starts and hasn’t missed a cut since May on tour. As well as a couple of top-10 finishes in his last few starts he won the 2022 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and has a few good results on links courses prior. If he gets the putter working, he could be near the top 10
Jonny Leighfield
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Favorite – Ludvig Aberg
I don’t care that he’s never played an Open championship before. The Swede is a superb ball-striker with an unflappable demeanour who has already been in the hunt at a Major in his debut season in the biggest events. Most of the other favorites have reasons not to pick them, but with Aberg, I see it as ‘why not him?’
Outsider – Ryan Fox
Fully aware this is a rogue pick, but the New Zealander has won the Alfred Dunhill Links in 2022, so he proved he can play well on links courses, he won the BMW PGA Championship last year, so he proved he can deal with a star-studded field, and he almost won the Irish Open a couple of years back, too. His form isn’t amazing this year, nor at the Open – historically – but, especially as far as outsiders go, he has just as good a chance as anyone.
Barry Plummer
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Favorite – Xander Schauffele
I can’t work out why recent Major Champion Xander Schauffele is double the price of Rory McIlroy, who has been largely absent since the US Open slipped through his fingers at Pinehurst, and at 14/1 I believe Xander represents excellent value. He ranks statistically as the second best golfer on the planet over the last twelve months, behind a very short-priced Scottie Scheffler, but with a win and two top-10s on his Major resume so far this season I am convinced he can double up in 2024!
Outsider – Matthieu Pavon
Matthieu Pavon has catapulted himself into the upper echelon of world golf this season, after famously securing his first PGA Tour victory and following up with a very impressive run of Major form. A 12th-place finish at The Masters and a 5th-place finish at the US Open suggest he has what it takes to mix it with the best on the biggest stage, and strong from in Scotland at the Alfred Dunhill Links suggests he can cope well with the test of Royal Troon. He is great each-way value at 150/1, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him contending on Sunday.
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Favorite – Ludvig Aberg
Ludvig has already shown his Major credentials with two strong showings in his first three career starts. With the wet spring we’ve had, the rough is supposed to be incredibly juicy at Troon and he is one of the best drivers of the ball in the game. He’s a superstar in waiting, this could be his breakthrough moment.
Outsider – Justin Rose
A seasoned competitor and showed his desire by going through qualifying just to get in the event. Troon is a very tactical golf course demanding experience and patience and Justin Rose has those qualities in abundance.
Callum MacHattie
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Favorite – Collin Morikawa
Embracing his shot shape has allowed his ball striking, accuracy and course management to flourish once again, which will be imperative at Troon. He’s been in the Major mix all year and returning to a championship he’s already won might just allow him to convert.
Outsider – Joaquin Niemann
Given the world ranking system, it feels like I’m cheating the system a little bit but I’d safely say he’s still an outsider. He’s been in great form this season and in his previous Major outings, he’s always shown glimpses of a player who has the game, but more importantly the temperament to win a Major championship.
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