Photo: Colin Dacre
Canada finally has a plan. Through a variety of policy changes and billions of dollars in new spending, the federal government has charted a course to boost home construction in a big way. The goal is to build 3.9 million new homes – two million more than projected – by 2031, an infusion of supply for our way-too-expensive housing market.
But as Canada tries to double construction overnight, it raises a simple question that threatens to dash any hopes of an imminent fix: Who is going to build all these homes?
The construction industry is among the loudest in talking about labour shortages and, indeed, it can be tough for companies to find skilled workers, many of whom are nearing retirement age.
Between now and 2033, an estimated 134,000 residential construction workers will retire, according to BuildForce Canada, a national industry organization. But only 117,000 are projected to join the field over that time – a net loss of labour when it’s needed most.
The number of on-site construction workers would need to rise by 83 per cent – or nearly half a million people – over the coming decade to usher in a golden period for development that brings home affordability back to levels seen in the early 2000s, BuildForce estimates.
It’s almost an outlandish vision of the future, given the experience on the ground.
“For any specialized discipline, there’s a huge problem with scheduling,” said Elliott Sheaves, a partner at Alair Homes, a network of custom home builders across North America.
“You’re relying on a well digger or a septic contractor who’s got 100 people calling him for 100 wells that they want to get installed in a 12-week window,” said Mr. Sheaves, whose Alair franchise operates in Ontario’s Georgian Bay and Muskoka areas. “A lot of them just stopped answering their phones.”
It would be easy to assume that Canadians have shirked tough, blue-collar work in favour of cushy office jobs, complicating efforts to build more homes. But, in fact, a rising share of domestic workers are employed in the construction industry; a record of nearly 650,000 people worked in residential construction last year.
And there’s a bunch of supply in the pipeline: Roughly 350,000 housing units are under construction in census metropolitan areas, just shy of all-time highs.
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