Fantasy Football: Three must-draft quarterbacks being selected outside the top 12

• Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa: Tagovailoa’s overall team environment notably improved this offseason.

• Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith: Smith’s downfield-passing abilities take center stage in Seattle’s new offense.

• Get a head start on fantasy football: Use PFF’s fantasy football mock draft simulator to create real live mock draft simulations to prepare for your live draft!

Estimated Reading Time: 7 minutes

While elite NFL quarterbacks now typically come with a high fantasy football average draft position, many quarterbacks capable of delivering predictable QB1 results are available outside the position’s top 12.

The article below breaks down three NFL quarterbacks currently available as the QB13 or later in both half-points-per-reception and full PPR scoring formats.

QB Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

Tagovailoa is available as the QB14 in both half-PPR and PPR scoring formats despite playing in an improved team-level environment following a 2023 NFL season that yielded six finishes as the QB10 or better. Tagovailoa is a must-draft, matchup-based QB1. His 87.4 PFF overall grade tied for seventh among 32 NFL quarterbacks with at least 475 offensive snaps in 2023.

Miami retained four of five offensive line starters and significantly upgraded the center position, replacing center Liam Eichenberg (45.9 PFF pass-blocking grade) with former Tennessee Titans center Aaron Brewer (73.1 PFF pass-blocking grade). Their PFF pass-blocking grades ranked 30th and 10th, respectively. Miami’s tackles and guards combine for a 68.5 PFF pass-blocking grade, ranking 15th among NFL tackle and guard combinations.

Miami general manager Chris Grier bolstered the already-elite offense by adding wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. and tight end Jonnu Smith in free agency, before drafting fourth-round running back Jaylen Wright. Among 85 NFL wide receivers and tight ends with at least 65 targets in 2023, Beckham tied for 36th in PFF receiving grade (77.0) and Smith ranked 81st (63.5), but the tight end’s 7.3 yards after the catch per reception ranked third.

Wright earned a 74.4 PFF receiving grade, ranking seventh among 40 Power Five running backs with at least 25 targets. As detailed in “Three TE1 breakouts for 2024“ and “Committee backfields to target in 2024,“ Smith and Wright are excellent schematic fits.

The Dolphins’ 2023 defense lost five key passing-game defenders to injured reserve before multiple starters departed in free agency. The shaky depth prompted Grier to sign edge rusher Shaquil Barrett, interior defender Calais Campbell, linebacker Anthony Walker Jr., linebacker Jordyn Brooks, safety Jordan Poyer and cornerback Kendall Fuller in free agency, and later drafted rushers Chop Robinson and Mohamed Kamara in the 2024 NFL Draft’s first and fourth rounds, respectively.

Barrett earned an 82.6 PFF pass-rush grade in 2023 to rank 22nd among 81 NFL defensive linemen with at least 380 pass-rushing snaps, whereas Campbell placed 57th with a 68.5 mark. Among 69 NFL linebackers with at least 230 coverage snaps, Walker’s 76.6 PFF coverage grade ranked 12th and Brooks’ 58.5 PFF coverage grade ranked 45th. Poyer recorded a 70.5 PFF coverage grade to rank 23rd among 65 NFL safeties with at least 350 coverage snaps, and Fuller’s 82.8 PFF coverage grade placed ninth among 63 NFL cornerbacks with at least 425 coverage snaps.

Given Fuller’s signing, No. 1 cornerback Jalen Ramsey expects to return to his shadow-coverage role after a 2023 hiatus. His 65.0 PFF coverage grade ranked 42nd among 72 NFL cornerbacks with at least 395 coverage snaps.

The 2024 defense should continue producing an excellent pass rush while improving on the 2023 defense’s 19th-ranked 2.0% interceptions per coverage target rate, routinely returning the ball to Miami’s elite offense. The Dolphins’ offense ranked seventh in expected points added per play (0.048) and scoring drive rate (41.1%), sixth in positive EPA rate (46.5%), fifth in success rate (37.3%) and second in explosive-pass-play rate (19.1%) last season.

Among 33 NFL quarterbacks with at least 270 dropbacks, Tagovailoa ranked seventh in big-time-throw rate (5.8%), fifth in completion rate (62.8%), third in yards per passing attempt (8.1), second in past-the-sticks throwing rate (46.3%) and first in average time to throw (2.33). His 88.6 PFF passing grade likewise ranked No. 1 overall.

Tagovailoa’s 38 rushing attempts tied for just 22nd at the position, and his 2.6 yards per rushing attempt placed him 31st, keeping him constrained to the matchup-based tier, rather than an elite QB1, regardless of the opponent.

Tagovailoa is a must-draft, matchup-based QB1 available outside the position’s top 12.

QB Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

The rookie Williams enters the NFL’s most quarterback-friendly offense, possessing an elite dual-threat profile while facing a fantasy-friendly shootout schedule. He is available as the QB17 in both formats but should routinely produce QB1 numbers, particularly over the fantasy football season’s final seven weeks. Williams’ 92.7 PFF overall grade over the past two seasons at USC tied for fourth among 35 Power Five quarterbacks with at least 1,500 offensive snaps during that span.

Williams’ blindside protection features one of the league’s better trios in Braxton Jones, Teven Jenkins and Ryan Bates. Among 105 NFL tackles and guards with at least 700 offensive snaps, Jones’ 71.3 PFF overall grade ranks 46th and Jenkins’ 74.5 figure ranks 33rd. Bates earned a 78.7 PFF overall grade as a Buffalo Bills backup last year.

Details on the offense’s elite pass-catching corps can be found in “3 must-draft rookie quarterbacks and “Ambiguous backfield to target in 2024.”

Williams possesses an NFL-ready passing profile and an elite QB1 rushing profile. Among 36 Power Five quarterbacks with at least 600 dropbacks over the past two seasons, he ranks 13th in turnover-worthy-play rate (2.6%), fifth in big-time-throw rate (6.1%), fourth in completion rate (67.2%) and third in yards per passing attempt (9.1). His 90.5 PFF passing grade ties for fifth.

Among 30 Power Five quarterbacks with at least 115 rushing attempts over the past two seasons, Williams ties for 13th in yards after contact per rushing attempt (3.0) and ninth in explosive run plays (44), while ranking sixth in first-down-plus-touchdown conversion rate (41.1%) and third in missed tackles forced per rushing attempt (0.31). His 87.9 PFF rushing grade ranks third.

Initial concerns about former Seattle Seahawks and new Chicago offensive coordinator Shane Waldron’s preferred pace of play are overblown. Seattle’s league-low 995 regular-season plays were likely due to the team’s 22nd-ranked third-down conversion rate (36.7%) and 30th-ranked fourth-down conversion rate (36.5%), rather than Waldron’s intent. As detailed by Establish The Run’s pace guru Pat Thorman, Seattle’s situation-neutral pace, pass and no-huddle rates from 2021 to 2023 regularly ranked inside the league’s upper-third tier.

Waldron’s tactics should keep Williams operating as the offense’s focal point, and Chicago’s competitive schedule further reinforces his fantasy-point-scoring opportunities. Chicago is scheduled to face five teams that finished in the top 10 in EPA per play and six more that ranked Nos. 11-21 during the fantasy football schedule. The remaining three teams are the Carolina Panthers, Washington Commanders and New England Patriots, who all received significant personnel and/or play-calling upgrades this offseason.

Chicago’s final seven games on the fantasy schedule include four games against top-five opponents, plus two games against the Minnesota Vikings (No. 14) and a Week 17 fantasy football championship showdown against Waldron’s former Seattle (No. 10) squad.

Williams is a must-draft quarterback available outside the position’s top 12.

QB Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks

Smith is primed for a bounce-back season, playing in new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb’s fast-paced, downfield passing scheme and surrounded by top-tier pass-catching talent while facing a fantasy-friendly schedule. Smith is available as the QB24 in both formats. His 83.5 PFF overall grade in 2023 tied for 13th among 32 NFL quarterbacks with at least 475 offensive snaps.

As detailed in “3 TE1 breakout candidates for 2024,” Grubb’s regular season offense totaled the third-most regular-season passing attempts (965) among 70 Power Five teams over the past two seasons. Including the playoffs, the unit averaged the 13th-most plays per drive (6.5).

Grubb’s offense consistently attacked downfield, far deeper and more frequently than the 2022-23 offense did despite Smith thriving as a downfield passer.

The table below compares Smith’s target-depth data from 2022-23 to Grubb’s 2022-23 starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr.’s target-depth data.

The expected uptick in downfield opportunities is a boon to Seattle’s starting wide receivers. Among 69 NFL wide receivers with at least 30 10-plus-yard targets in 2023, Seattle’s No. 1 wide receiver D.K. Metcalf ranked 10th in yards per reception (24.8) and fifth in yards after the catch per reception (6.8). His 94.5 PFF receiving grade on qualifying targets placed him 12th. Veteran wide receiver Tyler Lockett turns 32 years old in September yet still grades well as a downfield target earner, having posted an 86.4 PFF receiving grade on qualifying targets.

Second-year slot receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba stands to benefit hugely from the shift after being sorely misused in his 2023 rookie season.

The table below compares Smith-Njigba’s 2023 target-depth data to Washington wide receivers Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan’s slot-target-depth data from 2022 to 2023.

Smith-Njigba (6-foot, 196 pounds) brings a similar physical profile to both Polk (6-foot-2, 204 pounds) and McMillan (6-foot-1, 192 pounds) as a modern-day NFL slot receiver.

As detailed in the breakout tight end article above, fantasy managers should expect Seattle tight end Noah Fant to play efficiently in Grubb’s fantasy-friendly No. 1 tight end role. Fant’s 64.6 PFF overall grade in 2023 ranked 19th among 33 NFL tight ends with at least 535 offensive snaps.

The Seahawks’ passing volume is reinforced by their high-quality offensive opponents. Seattle plays seven games against opponents ranked in the top 10 in EPA per play and four more against teams ranking Nos. 14-21. The New England Patriots, New York Giants, Atlanta Falcons, New York Jets and Chicago comprise Seattle’s five remaining contests, four of which received significant offensive personnel and/or play-calling upgrades this offseason.

Smith is a must-draft quarterback available outside the position’s top 12.