Head to Head: Can Brown’s 5 be beaten in Diana at Saratoga?

Ashley

Laurie

1.  Moira (5-1)

Trained by Kevin Attard, Moira is making her first start since finishing a close third in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, a layoff of 8 months. Over the last year, Attard has been 15 percent with a 42 percent in the money rate, with runners coming off a layoff of six months or more. The 5-year-old mare has posted a steady stream of works at Woodbine in preparation for this spot. This is a talented mare, but this is a tough spot to come back into off such a lengthy vacation. Tyler Gaffalione will have the call. Use underneath.

The 2022 Sovereign Award winner for horse of the year and champion 3-year-old filly is making her seasonal debut for Kevin Attard. Her past performances show she fires off a layoff, as she placed in last year’s Belle Mahone Stakes (G3) after a fifth-place finish in the 2022 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf. Ashley notes that Moira recorded multiple breezes over Woodbine’s Tapeta, including a second-to-last five-furlong bullet in 59.80. Moira’s Brisnet speed ratings hover in the mid to high 90s, and she earned a career-best 102 rating in her sole start at 1 1/8 miles. She’s dependable against Canadian fillies but takes on a more robust field here. Pass.

2.  Coppice (8-1)

The first of the Chad Brown contingent, Coppice enters off back-to-back losses to stablemate Chili Flag: second by a neck in the Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (G2) and sixth, beaten by just 1 3/4 lengths for it all, in the Just a Game (G1). Coppice was favored in both races but turned out to be her own worst enemy, getting off awkwardly at Churchill Downs and hitting the gate here at the Beltoga meet. Frankie Dettori was aboard for both races and retains the mount for this race. No need to throw around stats here; Brown’s record speaks for itself. However, it’s worth noting that Coppice has never raced beyond a mile, so the extra furlong could be a deciding factor here. Contender.

Coppice was a victim of the dreaded “Euro bounce” in the Just A Game, her second start since shipping from Newmarket. In her first start of the year, Coppice closed within a heartbreaking neck of stablemate Chili Flag, and now faces her rival a third time. Coppice has been keeping company in the mornings with the 5-year-old multiple graded stakes-winning turf router McKulick. The pair are evenly matched, although McKulick appeared more aggressive and on the bridle. Coppice attempts 1 1/8 miles for the first time. Her full brother Calyx and their dam Hellebourne are group-stakes-winning sprinters, as is Hellebourne’s full sister African Rose. Coppice’s sire Kingman was 2014 Cartier Horse of the Year and a multiple Group 1-winning miler. Coppice’s closing style might help her get the extra furlong, but I’ll take a pass this time.

3.  Mission of Joy (10-1)

Trained by Graham Motion, Mission of Joy enters off a third-place effort in the Just a Game, missing the win by just 1/2 length in a blanket finish. While Mission of Joy typically runs a solid race, she hasn’t visited the winner’s circle since triumphing in last June’s Regret Stakes (G3). In her last three starts, this filly has crossed the wire behind five rivals in this field. Regular rider John Velazquez will be in the irons. I’m not foreseeing a win from this filly, but her getting up for a minor placing would not be shocking. Use underneath.

Mission of Joy has hit the board in two of three starts at 1 1/8 miles and finally gets a chance to stretch back out in her third start off the layoff. The Graham Motion trainee closed into a swift pace in her last start and simply ran out of real estate. She’s posted a steady stream of breezes at Fair Hill and looks like a live longshot. 

4.  Didia (ARG) (7-2)

Trained by Ignacio Correas, IV, Didia is 3: 2-0-1 this year with victories in the Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf Invitational (G2) and the New York Stakes (G1). Sandwiched between those two races is a third place in the Jenny Wiley (G1), beaten by just 3 1/4 lengths. Neither of the two mares that beat her that day are in this field. This 6-year-old mare has only been out of the trifecta three times in 17 starts, a picture of consistency. Over the last five years, Correas has been 13 percent with a 34 percent in the money rate in graded stakes, per Race Lens. Didia has been his primary ticket casher in that timeframe, winning four of his seven graded stakes. Jose Ortiz retains the mount. Contender.

Didia entered her current win/lose cycle after her seven-race win streak was broken with a runner-up finish in last year’s New York Stakes. Didia recorded a career-best 101-speed rating and 104 late-pace figure winning this year’s New York Stakes, a 13-point jump. She’s posted a series of moderate works at Keeneland and ships in for Ignacio Correas, but I see a regression. Didia may vie on the lead with other speed and must hold off the closers. Perhaps she can hold on for a piece. Exotics.

5.  Gina Romantica (8-1)

The second of the Chad Brown contingent, Gina Romantica enters off a fifth-place finish in the Just a Game. Anyone else seeing a pattern here? As previously stated, it was a blanket finish, but Gina Romantica was passed in deep stretch and lost two placings before the wire came. She’s only made one other start this year, and that was a seventh-place effort in the Jenny Wiley (G1). Manny Franco takes over from Tyler Gaffalione, who will instead be riding Moira. Though she’s a grade one winner, I’m not impressed by what she’s shown so far this year. Pass.

Gina Romantica hopes to return to last year’s winning form, but it isn’t looking good, as she’s lost ground in her last two starts at shorter distances. Until this year, she finished out of the Superfecta only once, which was in her second start in 2022. Gina Romantica recorded a pair of solo moves at four and five furlongs over Saratoga’s turf training track, moving comfortably throughout and well within herself. Perhaps the jock switch to Manny Franco will help Gina Romantica’s pace pressing style, but I’ll pass.

6.  Whitebeam (4-1)

Whitebeam is the third runner from the Chad Brown barn and enters off a narrow loss in the Just a Game. The 5-year-old had the lead in the stretch but was ultimately outkicked by winner Chili Flag and had to settle for second, beaten by just 1/2 length. Her only other start this year was in the Beaugay (G3), which she lost by a neck to Neecie Marie. Whitebeam is the defending Diana champ and clearly likes the Saratoga turf. Brown is 26 percent with a 62 percent in the money clip with runners third off a layoff. Flavien Prat, who was aboard last out, retains the mount. Contender.

Whitebeam returns to defend her title in the Diana (G1), hoping to emulate Sistercharlie , the third filly to accomplish back-to-back victories since the race’s inception in 1976. Whitebeam’s last visit to the winner’s circle was in last year’s Diana Stakes. However, she came oh-so-close in her last two starts, missing by a neck and 1/2 length, respectively in the Beaugay and Just a Game. The pretty gray mare was on the bridle in her most recent tail waving sashays  around the turf training track. Contender.

7.  Fluffy Socks (15-1)

In case you were hoping for a change-up, I’m sorry to disappoint you as Fluffy Socks is the fourth runner hailing from the Chad Brown barn. The popular 6-year-old mare enters off a confidence-boosting 7 3/4-length victory in the Gallorette (G3) after dropping her first three starts of the year. Prior to that, Fluffy Socks hadn’t won a race since last year’s Churchill Distaff Turf Mile. While she’s not a consistent winner, she is a consistent runner with a 26: 6-9-4 career record. The Head of Plains Partners’s homebred has never won at Saratoga but has finished second over this course in three out of five starts. Joel Rosario takes over from regular rider Irad Ortiz, Jr., who will ride Chili Flag instead. Pass.

The cleverly named Fluffy Socks, by Slumber out of Breakfast Time, loved the soft going in the Gallorette in her first visit to the winner’s circle in a year. She’s come close a few times, twice missing the photo by a head and finishing third twice and fourth once, all close calls. 1 1/8 miles isn’t her best distance; she has one victory in eight attempts but has completed the trifecta five times. The key to Fluffy Socks is that she does her best on the outside and should get the trip she prefers here. Dependable and worth an include in the exotics.

8.  Neecie Marie (12-1)

Trained by Butch Reid, Neecie Marie was second last out to Didia in the New York Stakes. This filly began her career on the dirt but was very quickly switched over to turf. She is 3: 1-0-0 on the dirt but 8: 4-3-0 on the lawn. The highest level at which she’s won is at the Grade 3 level, though she is Grade 1-placed by virtue of her second in the New York, where she finished ahead of the highly regarded War Like Goddess. A case can certainly be made for this 4-year-old filly, but this is the stiffest competition she’s faced to date, and I question whether she’s ready to face the Brown barn in his own backyard. Reid is 12 percent with a 39 percent in-the-money rate in graded stakes over the last five years, per Race Lens. Pass.

Neecie Marie stepped into Grade 1 company and closed for a clear second behind Didia in the New York Stakes. She switched to her left lead eight strides from the wire and closed steadily, clearly second-best. Robert Reid, Jr. trainee recorded a career-best 99 speed rating, and her 102 late pace figure is the second-highest in the Diana field. This improving 4-year-old filly has finished off the board only three times in her career. She has tactical speed, can sit anywhere and make her run. Exotics.

9.  Evvie Jets (20-1)

Trained by Mertkan Kantamaci, Evvie Jets is familiar with most of this field. She, too, exits the Just a Game, where she completed the superfecta at 26-1 odds and missed the win by just 3/4 length. Evvie Jets does her best running on the lead but has shown that she’s capable of winning from off the pace. Her last visit to the winner’s circle was right here at Saratoga this past August in the Ballston Spa (G2). With Dylan Davis up, Evvie Jets will likely attempt to wire the field and is eligible to continue to improve third off the layoff. Kantarmaci is 13 percent with a 36 percent in the money rate with runners third off a layoff and 25 percent with a 50 percent in-the-money clip in graded stakes in the past five years, with Evvie Jets accounting for 7 of his 8 graded starters. While she is 5: 2-1-0 at the Spa, I’m not liking her chances here. Pass.

Evvie Jets put up a good fight in the Just a Game but couldn’t hold off the top three in a blanket finish. Her weakness is that she must be first or vying for the lead in the stretch to win. I don’t see that happening against this crowd. Pass.

10. Chili Flag (9-2)

Rounding out the Chad Brown quintet is Chili Flag, who brings a three-race winning streak to the table. Aside from a shocking sixth-place finish in the Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf Invitational, Chili Flag has never been off the board since crossing the pond to the U.S. It’s difficult to come up with a scenario in which this 5-year-old mare isn’t in the mix at the wire, especially with Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the saddle. She’d have to be her own worst enemy otherwise. Look for her to hit the NOS button in the stretch for a close decision on the wire. Contender.

Chili Flag’s sole off-the-board finish in the U.S. was in the Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf Invitational, when Flavian Prat was aboard instead of her usual teammate, Irad Ortiz, Jr. The duo are riding a three-race win streak this year, and this Chad Brown trainee has tactical speed. Contender.

11. Venti Valentine (AE) (2-1)

MTO