2024 NDSU Football Game-by-Game & Win Total Predictions

North Dakota State’s football schedule this year has eight MVFC games, three FCS non-conference matchups, and one FBS opponent.

Here are game-by-game predictions for NDSU, who is No. 2 in HERO Sports’ FCS Preseason Top 25.

at Colorado

There are differing opinions on this game. Some say hammer the NDSU moneyline as the Bison are 8.5-point underdogs. Others are very confident that Colorado will roll, that the Buffaloes are way too talented to lose to an FCS team, and that NDSU isn’t the same juggernaut it once was.

A week before a rivalry game against Nebraska, Colorado fans and perhaps the Colorado locker room may be too focused on the letters FCS. However, the locker room would be wise not to do so considering many of them began their college careers in the FCS.

Colorado has brought in around 42 transfers this offseason and 52 last year under Deion Sanders, per 247Sports. How does that all gel in Week 1? If Colorado faces early adversity against the Bison, how does the sideline react? The Buffaloes will have the talent advantage, but NDSU may have an edge in the trenches. If Colorado gets punched in the mouth, how does it respond when it realizes the Bison have some dogs on the d-line and some pro talent on the o-line?

There are so many unknowns about Colorado due to the roster overhaul. The only result that would surprise me is NDSU winning big. NDSU winning a close game, Colorado winning narrowly, or Colorado winning by a large margin wouldn’t be a surprise. But I’ll take Colorado in a 7-10-point win.

It may be a lower-scoring game than some expect. The Bison defense should be solid this year, and their d-line may be able to get after a revamped Colorado offensive line. But the NDSU offense may have a slow start in this one as it needs to replace its top running back, top two wide receivers, and three starting linemen.

Loss

vs Tennessee State

Tennessee State might contend for a playoff spot out of the Big South-OVC, but the gap between a Top 4 FCS team and a Top 30ish FCS team will be evident here.

Win

at East Tennessee State

A quarterfinal rematch from a few seasons ago. ETSU has lost its momentum after that 2021 playoff run, going 3-8 in 2022 and 2023. The Bucs relieved George Quarles of his duties and then hired Tre Lamb from Gardner-Webb.

Lamb has taken around 20 Gardner-Webb players with him. (I thought coaches hated the transfer portal?) ETSU should be decent this year. Lamb is a good coach, and I’d expect ETSU, who has a strong fan base, to be back in the playoffs sooner than later. But the Bison should win here by three scores.

Win

vs Towson

Keep an eye on Towson. The Tigers hired Pete Shinnick before last season and finished 5-6 overall (4-4 in the CAA). Before that, Shinnick guided West Florida to a D2 national championship in 2019 and playoff appearances in four of the last five seasons.

Shinnick could make Towson respectable again. This year’s team features tight end Carter Runyon, one of the top NFL Draft prospects in the FCS. But like Tennessee State and ETSU, the gap between NDSU and “decent” FCS teams is wide.

Win

at No. 24 Illinois State

A really good road test for NDSU here. Illinois State narrowly missed the playoffs last year. And with a good chunk of its team returning, it seems the Redbirds are primed for a return to the postseason.

I expect a tight, physical, and perhaps an ugly contest here. The Bison will be pushed, but they’ll find a way to grind out an old-school type of game.

Win

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vs North Dakota

After an embarrassing 49-24 loss at UND last year that had fans and some former players calling for changes, the Bison will be determined to return the favor.

UND has question marks defensively, at quarterback, and on the offensive line.

Win

at No. 9 Southern Illinois

Sandwiched between rivalry games, a trip to SIU won’t be easy.

The Salukis are getting preseason Top 10 love. Their roster is indeed talented heading into the fall. I think they’ll be back in the playoffs, but there are too many question marks to call an upset here. SIU will have a new starting quarterback and returns only four starters on defense.

Win

vs No. 1 South Dakota State

This is a coin-flip game. I could easily make the argument on why the Bison will win — Tim Polasek giving the most fiery Fargodome pregame speech since 2016 Mike Houston, the home crowd champing at the bit to see NDSU beat SDSU for the first time in the 2020s, and a veteran Bison roster motivated to snap a five-game losing streak.

But on paper, SDSU still looks like the better team.

The gap defensively between the two was wide last year. It should narrow this fall as I think NDSU will improve on that side of the ball. But the Jacks will still have an edge with eight of their top 13 tacklers returning from their historically good defense, led by a veteran secondary and linebackers. And despite SDSU losing several offensive players to the NFL, you could make the case that NDSU actually has more offensive question marks than the Jacks. Both have top-tier QBs. Both lose their top two wide receivers, but SDSU has the most productive returning WR (in receiving) between the two in Griffin Wilde. Both lose their top running back, but SDSU has the most productive returning RB between the two in All-Conference selection Amar Johnson. NDSU returns only two starting offensive linemen. SDSU has three if you include UND transfer Sam Hagen joining All-American Gus Miller and All-Conference Evan Beerntsen.

Loss

at Murray State

Murray State is making dramatic changes to its roster under first-year head coach Jody Wright, bringing in 23 FBS transfers. While that may create excitement on paper, it doesn’t always equal success on the field. We’ve seen plenty of FCS teams get worse after bringing in double-digit FBS transfers. NDSU wins big.

Win

vs Northern Iowa

NDSU hasn’t lost to UNI since 2014. With an offseason unknown at quarterback and a new-look secondary for UNI, plus back-to-back seasons without playoff appearances, the Panthers aren’t appearing on many preseason Top 25s. They’ll be a tough out, per usual. But expect another NDSU victory here.

Win

vs Missouri State

NDSU extends its winning streak to three games as playoff positioning becomes even more crucial.

This will be the last matchup between Mo State and NDSU as FCS programs. Perhaps they’ll meet again someday as members of the same subdivision.

Win

at No. 5 South Dakota

Entering the final week of the regular season and a day before Selection Sunday, there is a realistic scenario that Montana State is undefeated with an FBS win, Montana is undefeated, Villanova is undefeated vs. FCS opponents, and SDSU is undefeated vs. FCS opponents.

The fight for a Top 2 playoff seed and home-field advantage is going to be incredibly tight.

Last year, the Bison lost 24-19 at home to USD, a shocking September result. They got their revenge in the quarterfinals, going to South Dakota and beating the Coyotes 45-17. That performance overshadowed the strong season USD had and made some question if it will regress in 2024. After finishing 10-3, the Yotes return nine offensive starters and six defensive players who started at least five games.

Seeding implications will be high here for both teams. I trust NDSU to win such a high-stakes game more than USD, even if it’s in Vermillion.

Win

Regular-Season Record Prediction: 10-2

We’ll set the over/under regular-season win total for NDSU at 10.5.

As mentioned above, the Bison are an 8.5-point underdog at Colorado. The SDSU game is a toss-up. SDSU has a better two-deep, but it being in the Fargodome could tip the scales toward NDSU. Road games at Illinois State, Southern Illinois, and South Dakota will see the Bison get pushed. While many have NDSU preseason No. 2, the Bison still have plenty of offseason questions — Can the defense return to its standard, who steps up at RB and WR, and will the offensive line be as dominant? Last year’s team went 8-3 in the regular season. Is 9-3 a possibility this fall? Sure. Is 11-1 equally possible? Sure. The schedule is tough, but the Bison have the experience and motivation to contend for a national title. A regular-season record between 9-3 and 11-1 seems most likely.