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4 Fantasy Football Studs That Will Become Duds (2024)

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6 months ago

June 28, 2024

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4 Fantasy Football Studs That Will Become Duds (2024)

The benefit of hindsight is a clear picture of what has transpired; one would think it would be advantageous to use historical data to predict the future. I’m here to tell you we put way too much stock in history and not enough into forecasting developing patterns. Yesteryear’s fantasy football stars could very well continue their successful ways, but many of them absolutely will not. Most fantasy football managers yearn for a peek into which of 2023’s studs will faceplant in 2024, especially the ones whose average draft position (ADP) has been buoyed into negative value territory. Unpredictable injuries notwithstanding, here are my fantasy football “untouchables” at their current draft values, all of whom are due for some very rude regression.

Fantasy Football Studs That Will Become Duds in 2024

Dak Prescott (QB – DAL)

The 2024 Dallas Cowboys might not win six games. The roster is constructed on a crumbling foundation of expiring contracts and a lame duck head coach. The running back room is a ghastly collection of meh. The offensive line is young and unproven. Dak Prescott will need to put the offense on his back and he has folded throughout his career under those circumstances. Last season’s QB5 in fantasy points per game isn’t even a top-12 option for me this year. CeeDee Lamb, like Dak and Micah Parsons, should hold out for a new contract and make Jerry Jones sleep in the heap he shoveled. Without Lamb, this offense is bottom rung across the board. I have zero confidence this team is going anywhere anytime soon.

Raheem Mostert (RB – MIA)

It was a Cinderella run last season for Raheem “Must-Start” Mostert. He scored an unfathomable 21 touchdowns. Not only is there little chance of history repeating itself for the elder statesman, he also is in danger of losing ground in a RB room that features De’Von Achane and rookie Jaylen Wright. RB regression is often due to injury attrition, but Mostert probably can’t even pay off at his ADP in good health. The Dolphins themselves are in danger of regression. Achane is also priced at his ceiling. Miami will use a revolving committee in their backfield, so investing in a guy entering his age 32 season is shaky logic at best.

DJ Moore (WR – CHI)

I love DJ Moore’s game. He is a dynamite playmaker and enjoyed his best season in the NFL in 2023. The issue is that he went from free reign on the receiving corps last season to a very crowded competition for targets this season. Caleb Williams is likely a passing upgrade over Justin Fields, especially with Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze joining the fray. Moore is still going to have some monster games in 2024, but expect them to be fewer and farther between. Odunze is a route-running stud without a weakness in his game. Allen is among the best possession receivers in the entire NFL. Even if Williams hits the ground running, he is still a rookie QB and likely will have some hiccups. I’m steering clear of Moore at his current ADP.

Evan Engram (TE – JAX)

Evan Engram led all TEs in receptions last season, with 114 of them, and it’s like none of you care. Engram also set a new career-low in yards per reception, at just 8.4, and he didn’t even crack 1,000 receiving yards. Much of the short area volume can be attributed to putrid offensive line play around Trevor Lawrence. Jacksonville addressed that issue and also selected stud WR Brian Thomas Jr. in the draft. Christian Kirk is still the best veteran receiver in this corps and the Jags also added field-stretcher Gabe Davis. I won’t drop Engram down too far, but he is a second-tier option who falls into the volume-based group for fantasy purposes, a tier that includes fellow accumulators like Dalton Schultz and Dallas Goedert.