2024 Minnesota Vikings Preview: Beginning a New Era With J.J. McCarthy

Welcome to 32 teams in 32 days. To get us through the offseason, we’ll be taking a closer look at every team in the NFL, in order of projected 2024 win totals. Up next: the Vikings.

It’s a new day in Minnesota. After having Kirk Cousins under center for six seasons, the Minnesota Vikings and their longtime quarterback went different directions this offseason. 

Cousins is now the starter with the Atlanta Falcons, while the Vikings went with a youth movement, selecting Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy with the 10th pick in the NFL draft. 

McCarthy comes to Minnesota fresh off a national championship with the Wolverines, and now gets a chance to play in a potentially high-octane offense alongside receivers Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.

But for the Vikings to reach their ceiling, McCarthy must be a quick study, coach Kevin O’Connell must do his best job yet and an improved defense needs to continue its ascension under coordinator Brian Flores.

Biggest gamble this offseason: Allowing Cousins to walk

The Vikings could have decided to make a huge play in an effort to retain Cousins. They could have outbid the Falcons, who ended up paying $180 million over four years. 

Instead, Minnesota moved on without Cousins despite not having an obvious replacement on hand. General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah signed veteran Sam Darnold before moving up one spot during the draft’s first round to land McCarthy.

Whether Darnold or McCarthy starts at the outset, it’s likely the offense won’t be as potent as it was under Cousins. However, with the 35-year-old coming off a torn Achilles, perhaps Minnesota got out at the right time.

Toughest stretch of the season: Weeks 2 to 5

Although the Vikings have the benefit of a few home games during this stretch, it involves four tough opponents and a ton of travel.

Minnesota starts this stretch by hosting the NFC-champion San Francisco 49ers, and then C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans in Danielle Hunter’s homecoming. Then, it’s a divisional clash with Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field before flying to London for what is technically a home date against the New York Jets.

For the Vikings, this will be a massive, early test, especially as the quarterback situation settles. The defense must carry the team, and do so against four terrific quarterbacks.

Breakout player to watch: WR Jordan Addison

Addison had an excellent rookie year, but this season could be his leap to superstardom. 

Addison caught 70 passes for 911 yards and a rookie-leading 10 touchdowns. Now with Jefferson healthy, he should get less attention from top corners and safeties playing over the top.

Although Jefferson will always be the top option, Addison should thrive in a secondary role and give Minnesota another 1,000-yard receiver with All-Pro potential. Look for Addison to thrive as he gets more comfortable in O’Connell’s offense, particularly once he develops a chemistry with Darnold and McCarthy.

Best-case scenario: McCarthy, Flores shine on way to NFC North crown

There’s a world where the Vikings are very good in 2024. 

Minnesota needs McCarthy to be a quick study, but if he is, the Vikings could have one of the more powerful offenses in the NFL. They have a quartet of skill weapons, a star left tackle in Christian Darrisaw and a coach who understands how to utilize his concepts.

Defensively, Flores is one of the top coordinators in football. The Vikings have the right pieces to be a blitz-heavy team led by versatile safety Josh Metellus. If that unit jibes despite the loss of Hunter, Minnesota could be a surprise in the NFC.

Worst-case scenario: The quarterback plays sinks the ship

Minnesota is making a major gamble on the combination of Darnold and McCarthy to keep the Vikings from the bottom of a tough NFC North.

There’s a realistic scenario where Minnesota toggles between the veteran and the rookie, trying to find suitable quarterback play, only to fail in both regards. With that, the Vikings are wasting the talents of Jefferson, Addison and T.J. Hockenson, putting a tremendous burden on Flores and the defense. 

While the defense should be solid, it’s unlikely to be good enough to deliver a playoff berth. 

Head coach-quarterback tandem ranking

No. 22: Kevin O’Connell (13) and J.J. McCarthy (31)

The Vikings are one of the league’s most intriguing teams, led by a coach in O’Connell who is one of the better offensive minds in the NFL. Minnesota is loaded offensively, with weapons such as receivers Jefferson and Addison, running back Aaron Jones and Hockenson. McCarthy, the 10th pick in the draft, walks into an ideal situation.

Sleeper fantasy pick: McCarthy

Was McCarthy’s fast rise in the NFL draft warranted? I’m not so sure. But what if his former Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh was right when he said McCarthy was the best quarterback in the 2023 class? He knows better than me (or any analyst), right? McCarthy landed in a great spot in an offense that boasts Jefferson, Addison and Hockenson, too. —Michael Fabiano

Best bet: Justin Jefferson Under 1275.5 receiving yards (-110) at DraftKings

We have yet to see Jefferson in the NFL without Cousins. While Cousins averaged 270 passing yards per game since Jefferson’s rookie season, McCarthy averaged fewer than 200 passing yards per game in his senior year at Michigan. If it isn’t McCarthy under center, it’ll be Darnold, who is woefully inconsistent. Now, add in injury risk (remember, Jefferson played just 10 games last season) and the fact that Jefferson already got the bag, and I’ll put my money on the under. —Jennifer Piacenti