2024 Belmont Stakes: Analyzing the horses at Saratoga from favorites to pretenders

This year’s Belmont Stakes will truly be a race unlike any other, and that’s not hyperbole: for the first time in the race’s 156-year history, it will be run at Saratoga Race Course.

The move was necessitated by the demolition and renovation of Belmont Park, at which racing hasn’t taken place in nearly a year. While almost all of the races held at Belmont have been moved 10 miles southwest to Aqueduct Race Track in Queens, Aqueduct is generally seen as the least desirable of the three New York Racing Association (NYRA) tracks, with Saratoga regularly drawing the highest number of customers.

Belmont Stakes day is part of a four-day racing festival at Saratoga, likely to be repeated next year as the Belmont rebuild continues.

Belmont Park is the only track in the country with a mile-and-a-half oval; the circumference of the track at Saratoga is a mile and an eighth, a configuration that led to NYRA’s shortening the Belmont Stakes from its customary 12 furlongs (a furlong is an eighth of a mile) to 10, the distance of the Kentucky Derby, the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and the Travers Stakes, et al. The mile and a quarter distance is considered the “classic distance” in U.S. racing.

No number of racing enthusiasts are too happy about the decision; the 12-furlong Belmont is a unique challenge, while a 10-furlong race is just another race, albeit one that is still longer than any race for 3-year-olds this year except the Kentucky Derby.

The weather outlook for all four days of the racing festival is unsettled, with rain in the forecast intermittently throughout. The NYRA track crew will no doubt be working overtime to ensure a fast track on Saturday, but even their best efforts might not be enough if the worst of the forecasts develops.

Post time for the Belmont Stakes is 6:41 p.m. ET. While both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness aired on NBC networks, the Belmont belongs to Fox. Coverage begins on FS1 at 10:30 a.m. ET on Saturday, switches to Fox from 4-7 p.m., then concludes on FS2 from 7-8 p.m.

In post-position order, here’s your look at the field for the Grade 1, $2 million Belmont Stakes. Good luck and safe trips to all.

1 – Seize the Grey

Owner: My Racehorse

Jockey: Jaime Torres

Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas

Morning line odds: 8-1

The Preakness winner is the fourth choice on the morning line, despite some clear advantages. He’s shown an affinity for an off track, having won the Preakness at a muddy Pimlico and getting his first win at Saratoga last summer in the slop. Though the Preakness is half a furlong shorter than this year’s Belmont, the distance clearly wasn’t a problem for him. He’s a frontrunner who encountered no speed challenges in the Preakness, which is unlikely to happen here, and the post position does him no favors: he’ll have to gun from the gate to make the lead before the horses hit the first of the race’s three turns.

2 – Resilience

Owner: Emily Bushnell and Ric Waldman

Jockey: Junior Alvarado

Trainer: Bill Mott

Morning line odds: 10-1

He returns from a seventh-place finish in the Kentucky Derby, which is not in and of itself a reason to toss him. The chaos of a 20-horse field may well have prevented him from doing his best running, and I trust trainer Bill Mott to spot his horses where he thinks they can do well. An off track downgrades his chances.

3 – Mystik Dan

Owner: Lance Gasaway, 4 G Racing LLC, Daniel Hamby III, and Valley View Farm LLC

Trainer: Ken McPeek

Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.

Morning line odds: 5-2

The only horse to run in all three Triple Crown races this year, he was second in the Preakness by 2 1/4 lengths, hardly embarrassing himself. A pacesetter earlier in his career, he’s become more of a stalker, which could put him in an excellent position should a speed duel develop up front.

4 – The Wine Steward

Owner: Paradise Farms Corp. and David Staudacher

Trainer: Mike Maker

Jockey: Manuel Franco

Morning line odds: 15-1

In six lifetime races, he’s never finished worse than second, and he’s never lost by more than three-quarters of a length. He’s also never faced quite this level of competition before, but he’s also no slouch. His pedigree screams stamina (his sire Vino Rosso won the Breeders’ Cup Classic), he won at Saratoga last summer, and he’ll have long odds. There are downsides: He hasn’t won since moving beyond sprinting distances, and he’s never run on a wet track. But he’ll be on my tickets as a live longshot and underneath in exactas and trifectas.

5 – Antiquarian

Owner: Centennial Farms

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

Morning line odds: 12-1

Winner of the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes last out, he beat two of his rivals here (The Wine Steward and Protective) in that race. The first of three runners from Pletcher broke his maiden over a sloppy track at Fair Grounds in February, then jumped right up to the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, finishing sixth by four lengths. Another with a stalking style that would benefit from a contested pace, he’s bred for distance and a serious contender.

6 – Dornoch

Owner: West Paces Racing LLC, R.A. Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding LLC, Two Eight Racing LLC, and Pine Racing Stables

Trainer: Danny Gargan

Jockey: Luis Saez

Morning line odds: 15-1

He finished 10th last out in the Kentucky Derby, only the second race in which he didn’t finish in the top two. The problem is that both of those off-the-board finishes came in Grade 1 races, so maybe he’s just not good enough to compete against these? He’s a full brother to last year’s Kentucky Derby winner Mage, and he’s run his best races on the lead. One of three potential speeds here, I don’t see him winning a speed duel.

7 – Protective

Owner: Repole Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione

Morning line odds: 20-1

The second of the Pletcher runners was a promising second in his first race, last summer at Saratoga, then didn’t race again until March. He’s finished third in all three of his races this year, two of which came in graded stakes races, putting him in the unusual position of being graded-stakes placed while still a maiden. Hard to see him breaking through here.

8 – Honor Marie

Owner: Ribble Farms LLC, Michael H. Eiserman, Earl I. Silver, Kenneth E. Fishbein, and Dave Fishbein

Trainer: Whit Beckman

Jockey: Florent Geroux

Morning line odds: 12-1

A rough trip in the Kentucky Derby resulted in an eighth-place finish by 13 lengths, and he gets a new jockey here, one with significantly more high-level experience and success. His record on a wet track is mixed, and it’s possible that he had good excuses in his two off-the-board finishes: a 20-horse Derby in which he was jostled early, and a sloppy track in the Grade 2 Risen Star. Mixed signals from this one.

9 – Sierra Leone

Owner: Mrs. John Magnier, Michael B. Tabor, Derrick Smith, Westerberg, Rocket Ship Racing, and Peter M. Brant

Trainer: Chad Brown

Jockey: Flavien Prat

Morning line odds: 9-5

He fell a nose short of winning a Kentucky Derby that was roughly run in the last sixteenth of a mile, and trainer Brown has elected to replace his Derby jockey with Flavien Prat, who boasts an impressive resume of graded stakes wins. The morning line favorite cost $2.3 million as a yearling and he’s done nothing wrong in his five lifetime races. An off track won’t be a problem for him.

10 – Mindframe

Owner: Repole Stable and St. Elias Stables LLC

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

Morning line odds: 7-2

Intriguing newcomer is the second choice on the morning line and the third for Pletcher. He’s won his first two races by 13 and 7 1/2 lengths respectively. He’s bred to run long, and he jumped from seven furlongs to a mile and a 16th without breaking a sweat. The competition gets a lot stiffer here, but I wouldn’t overlook him.

(Photo of Mystik Dan: Al Bello / Getty Images)