2024 Atlanta Falcons Preview: New Coach-QB Duo Can Win Weak Division

Welcome to 32 teams in 32 days. To get us through the offseason, we’ll be taking a closer look at every team in the NFL, in order of projected 2024 win totals. Up next: the Falcons.

After three years of watching Arthur Smith treat his star offensive players like they were radioactive, the Atlanta Falcons are hoping Raheem Morris has a better plan. Offensively, things will look much different after the franchise gave Kirk Cousins a four-year, $180 million deal, pairing him with new coordinator Zac Robinson, who comes over with Morris from the Los Angeles Rams.

Atlanta has enough talent on paper to win the NFC South and be a factor in January, but things must come together quickly for a team with new faces in key places.

Biggest gamble this offseason: Drafting Michael Penix Jr.

This isn’t just a gamble for the future. It’s also a gamble right now.

By selecting Penix, the Falcons undercut Cousins in a few ways. For starters, the veteran is already viewed as a bridge instead of the franchise, something that could cause division in the locker room. Additionally, what happens if Cousins struggles early in his return from a torn Achilles, or if Penix is forced into action and thrives. Who will play?

Additionally, the Falcons could have used their first-round choice on an edge rusher such as Dallas Turner to bolster a weak spot on the roster. Instead, they took a backup quarterback.

Toughest stretch of the season: Weeks 1 to 4

Frankly, the Falcons have a very easy schedule. Atlanta benefits from a weak division and also gets to play against the AFC West, which has three teams it should beat.

However, the first month of the season will be a test. The Falcons start with the new-look Pittsburgh Steelers at home before traveling to take on the Philadelphia Eagles on a Monday night in Week 2. Then, on a short week, Atlanta will come back to Mercedes-Benz Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs before welcoming in their top rival in the New Orleans Saints.

If the Falcons start 2–2, they’ll be set up well for the rest of the season.

Breakout player to watch: TE Kyle Pitts

It feels like we’re entering a bit of treacherous territory for Pitts. After eclipsing 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie, Pitts has struggled over the past two years with just 81 receptions and 1,023 yards combined.

How much of that is a result of the 2021 first-round pick failing to live up to lofty expectations on his own, and how much falls on the shoulders of former quarterbacks Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder? Now that Cousins is around, we’re going to find out. 

Smart money says Pitts will shine in this new-fangled offense, playing with a legitimate quarterback.

Best-case scenario: Cousins–Morris tandem works, defense does enough

There’s a path for the Falcons to be very good. That’ll be the case if Cousins bounces back from the torn Achilles; the trio of Pitts, Bijan Robinson and Drake London are fantastic; and Morris proves he deserved another shot in the top seat.

If those things happen, Atlanta is probably going to win the NFC South and maybe even a playoff game or two. 

That said, the other factor is how the defense plays. Last season, the unit ranked 11th in yardage, 18th in points and 19th in sack percentage. Can that unit, under Morris’s leadership, improve a few spots in each category?

Worst-case scenario: Penix has to play early and the defense suffers

If Cousins isn’t healthy, or struggles mightily coming off the injury, then Atlanta has a huge problem. The offense would either be relying on a sub-par quarterback trying to regain past form or a 24-year-old rookie being asked to step in and perform immediately. 

Beyond that, the defense isn’t a group ready to lead a contender. There are some good players on that side, with corner A.J. Terrell and safety Jessie Bates III, but not enough to consistently win tight, low-scoring games. 

The Falcons need to hope Cousins is ready by September and doesn’t need half the season to get rolling.

Head coach-quarterback ranking

No. 17: Morris (25) and Cousins (14)

Atlanta is starting anew with the Morris–Cousins duo, giving reason to believe in a potential playoff run. The Falcons are hoping Cousins bounces back from a torn Achilles while Morris is getting a second chance at the big seat after his first attempt with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from 2009 to ’11 (plus an interim stint with the Falcons in ’20). If Cousins is healthy, that offense should be dangerous with myriad weapons and a quality front led by guard Chris Lindstrom.

Sleeper/fantasy pick: WR Drake London

Excuse my Seinfeld references when it comes to London, but we “love the Drake” this season. Bad quarterbacks and a lack of elite target totals have limited London in his first two seasons, but that won’t be the case in 2024. The Falcons signed Cousins, a veteran gunslinger who elevates the value of all of Atlanta’s pass catchers. London could be a top-12 wideout this season. —Michael Fabiano

Best bet: Cousins under 27.5 passing TDs (-115) at DraftKings

Cousins could get off to a slow start returning from injury and in a new system. Whether or not that means losing a few starts to Penix, I’ll take the under for Cousins, who no longer has Justin Jefferson as his No. 1 target.  In Cousins’s last full healthy season (2022), he tallied 29. —Jennifer Piacenti

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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