11 Players to Draft & Avoid at ADP (2024 Fantasy Football)

With the NFL season approaching, it’s time to start thinking about Fantasy Football. Over the last few seasons, Best Ball formats have gained significant popularity. That’s what we are looking at today.

In this article, we are examining some fantasy football draft strategies for Best Ball formats. More specifically, which fantasy football players we are targeting and avoiding at their current ADP (Average Draft Position) is the focus here. Here are fantasy football players to draft and others to avoid at their current ADP.

Fantasy Football Players to Draft & Avoid

ADP provided by Underdog Fantasy.

Players To Draft

I am targeting all three of these Falcons at their Current ADP. Due to the upgrade at QB and the new coaching staff, the offense should finally live up to their hype.

Raheem Morris is bringing over former Rams’ passing coordinator Zac Robinson as his offensive coordinator. With Robinson, Rams’ breakout wide receiver Puka Nacua had a historic rookie season, setting records in receptions and receiving yards by a rookie.

There is plenty of reason to be excited about the coaching change in Atlanta, especially for pass catchers. Under McVay and Robinson, the Rams used 11 personnel (3 WR) 93% of the time; the most in the NFL. The Falcons ranked dead last at 15%.

Among quarterbacks with at least 500 snaps, Desmond Ridder ranked 22nd out of 30 in attempted passes. That should change with their investment in Cousins.

Last year, we saw Hurts getting drafted in the second round after nearly winning the 2022 NFL MVP award. Fast forward a year, and we are now seeing Hurts slide into the fourth round with an ADP of 40.7, which puts him alongside the likes of Tee Higgins, George Pickens, Amari Cooper, and Christian Kirk. None of those players come close to Hurts’ ceiling.

Enter new offensive play-caller Kellen Moore. Pat Thorman of Establish The Run noted that under Moore’s play-calling, the Chargers finished third in no-huddle rate and led the league in combined play volume in 2023. During his four years in Dallas, with a healthy Dak Prescott, the Cowboys ranked 1st, 1st, 2nd, and 6th in plays per game.

Hurts, at his ADP of 40.7, is a steal. As we get closer to the start of the season, I wouldn’t be shocked if his ADP creeps up into the low-30 range.

White is the RB1 for the Raiders heading into the 2024 season. The Raiders let Josh Jacobs walk in free agency, handing the keys to White.

Over the last four weeks of the season, he saw 84 rushing attempts (2nd NFL), trailing only Najee Harris. White’s 4.7 YPC in that time frame was better than Harris, James Cook, Rachaad White, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Kenneth Walker. All are being drafted higher than White.

Other running backs being drafted around the same ADP as White are Jonathon Brooks (86.9), Jaylen Warren (89.6), and D’Andre Swift (91.2). Each has major competition for carries on their respective teams.

With Kyler Murray as his quarterback, McBride had a 17-game receiving pace of 113/1,143/4. With those numbers, he would have finished second in receptions, first in yards, and 12th in TDs. That’s TE1 material.

Ford is the only starting RB you can find this late in Best Ball drafts. Ford will likely start for the Browns until Nick Chubb returns from his ACL injury, to which there is still no timetable.

Other running backs going around the same time are Ezekiel Elliott, Chase Brown, Austin Ekeler, and Zach Charbonnet. All of those backs have potential competition. We know, or at least we like to think, Ford will get most of the carries in the Browns’ offense.

Among running backs with at least 500 snaps, Ford ranked 18th out of 27 in YPC (4.0) and 15th in receptions (44). Only Christian McCaffery (7) finished with more receiving touchdowns than Ford (5).

Players to Avoid

I love Kupp. He is one hell of an athlete, but he may be a bit overvalued at his current ADP. Kupp has only eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark once in the last four years. DJ Moore and DK Metcalf are the other guys getting drafted around the same time.

Moore is coming off a career year with over 1,300 yards and eight touchdowns. He should be getting an upgrade at QB with Caleb Williams too. Metcalf is coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons and has never caught fewer than six touchdowns.

With Kupp getting older, and the addition of Nacua last year, I like going with Moore and Metcalf before taking a chance on Kupp.

Ridley leaves a playoff-contending team for a franchise in rebuild mode. He leaves a franchise quarterback in Trevor Lawrence to go to Will Levis. Even if new head coach Brian Callahan runs a pass-first offense, it will take time to build chemistry. Ridley will also have to battle future Hall of Famer DeAndre Hopkins.

With Ridley slotted in the middle of the fourth round, I’d instead take a shot with other guys featuring higher ceilings like Jayden Reed, Xavier Worthy, Rome Odunze, and Jordan Addison.

Sutton is coming off a 10-touchdown season, but, as hard as it is to believe, the Broncos will downgrade at the QB position. Russell Wilson is now in Pittsburgh. Sean Payton brought in Bo Nix and Zach Wilson. I don’t have much faith in either one heading into 2024.

Guys like Rashid Shaheed, Romeo Doubs, and Josh Palmer arguably have higher ceilings with better quarterbacks than Sutton. I’d rather take any of those three than at current ADP.

While Conner is coming off a career-high in rushing yards (1,040), I don’t think he has a chance to duplicate that performance. He has played more than 13 games just once in a single season, and the Cardinals invested in running back Trey Benson with the 66th pick in this year’s draft.

Given Conner’s injury history, I’d rather take Benson at this point in the draft. The former Oregon Duck is one Conner injury away from having an RB1-type workload.

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