10/6/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Mornington, King’s Birthday races

Victorian racing on Monday heads to Mornington. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Back Me

2 She’s Got Pizzazz (Bet Now: $2.70) hasn’t done much wrong in a two start career for Moody/Coleman and has to be respected as one of the key chances. She has placed in both career runs, the latest being two weeks ago at Sandown when near the speed and fought on well enough in defeat when third Heinous. Better for the two runs, hard fit now, she appeals.

Danger

All you can do is win and that is what 1 Benagil (Bet Now: $3.90) did on debut, which was at Pakenham. That came over 1200m where she gave them a start and a beating, launching late from off the speed and finished best to win well. Bit of depth to this line up but I do think she has the engine under the hood to measure up.

Long Shot

10 Reluctantlycharmed (Bet Now: $8.00) looks suited up to 1200m. This girl was kept quite safe in betting when debuting over 1000m here. She just lacked the change up speed to go with them late in the piece but picked up and wasn’t too bad in defeat behind Interest Point. Tricky draw, but like her up to 1200m and had jumped out well prior.

Back Me

4 Famoso (Bet Now: $3.20) on top in what looks a race in two. Mick Kent trained gelding that debuted at The Valley on Feb 16 where he got back off the speed and was held up at times before getting clear and he found the line with purpose late in the piece when a narrow second to Quebeck. Given a good break and his recent jumpout win at Cranbourne was quite good to the eye.

Danger

2 Bracarde (Bet Now: $2.50) is the key and I dare say only threat. This guy debuted in what looked a solid maiden at Werribee a couple of weeks ago. He got back off the speed and kept chasing in a good debut when second to Mistavain. Better for the run, up to 1200m and M Zahra aboard, he rates highly.

Long Shot

11 Paragraph (Bet Now: $14.00) is one for wider exotics. Team Freedman trained filly that ran at this track/distance last time where she had the suck run in transit and was there to win but couldn’t quite finish the race off when fourth. The key to her is Blinkers first time, hopefully in search of her sharpening up.

Back Me

2 Zamborghini (Bet Now: $3.10) looks the one for me. Matt Laurie trained gelding that ran at Sandown last time where he got back to near last in the run and failed to make up any real headway late in the piece behind Hard To Cross. He gets Blinkers on to sharpen him up, can settle on speed and the depth here is nowhere near as deep.

Danger

7 Brave Miss (Bet Now: $5.00) can bounce back for Team Freedman. She spanked them fresh in a 58 at Werribee before going to Pakenham where she seemingly had every chance in defeat but was very much on the plain side in the straight behind El Rocko. Third up and hard fit, off the return, she can take this out.

Long Shot

1 Blazerro (Bet Now: $7.00) will appreciate the serious drop in grade/depth. He resumed in a strong 84 at Sandown just over three weeks back and just looked in need of the run when down the track behind Le Ferrari. This looks a more suitable level for him and he gets in really well after the claim.

Back Me

4 Touristic (Bet Now: $6.50) is a horse I have time for and I think he gets a set up here to run a much improved race. He resumed over the mile at Sandown where he got back to near last in the run and whilst held up at times, he had his chance and just looked in need of the run behind Hard To Cross. Fitter and up in trip, can settle closer in the run, his best is more than good enough.

Danger

7 Valley King (Bet Now: $4.20) is knocking on the door to win for Patrick Payne. He ran over 2000m last Saturday at Caulfield where he got back to near last and spotted them in front a tidy start but he picked up and surged late in a good effort when a close up fourth to Foujita San. Hard to beat with a more positive steer.

Long Shot

3 Think N Fly (Bet Now: $5.50) looks the likely leader and is suited at Mornington. He ran over 2000m at Caulfield last Saturday. He attempted to lead throughout and despite being a big price, I thought he ran a very credible race in defeat behind Foujita San, beaten a couple of lengths. Hard to beat for mine if he gets some form of control in front.

Back Me

1 Fission (Bet Now: $6.50) for me in what looks an open race. Griffiths/De Kock trained gelding that resumes, having not raced since Oct 27 at The Valley over 955m when just off the speed and kept chasing in a really good effort when third to Frilled. He is a horse who can sprint well fresh and has looked strong in a couple of Cranbourne jumpouts.
Big Danger:
Long Shot:

Danger

10 Bifrost (Bet Now: $11.00) is racing well without winning for Team Browne. He ran over 1000m at Cranbourne last time out when just off the speed and presented to win when clear but just couldn’t quite get past Scorsese. Horror draw, but there is good speed in front so he’ll get his chance to launch late.

Long Shot

12 Hissy Fit (Bet Now: $8.00) is a Team Yargi trained mare that resumes. This girl is first up, having not raced since Jan 24 when close up and far from disgraced in defeat at Sandown behind Tanto. Home track advantage, has jumped out well leading in and maps ideally. Knockout hope.

Back Me

2 Picky (Bet Now: $6.00) on top but not really a race I want to get involved in. Heavily backed odds on favourite when racing over 1000m at Cranbourne over three weeks ago. She was on speed throughout and seemingly had her chance. Just couldn’t finish the race off. Maps perfect here and gets the claim for Kennedy. Think she’ll take beating.

Danger

All you can do is win and that is what 10 Thedreamsnotover (Bet Now: $13.00) has done in her one start career. The debut was at this track/distance when on speed and she was impressive, sitting on speed before booting clear late and credit to her, she was quite strong to the line in winning. Good test here, but think she’ll run a positive race, especially from the gate.

Long Shot

Best version of 7 Spicy Margs (Bet Now: $10.00) is good enough to measure up. Just not sure where she is at. She resumed over 1100m at Bendigo when on speed throughout but when asked for an effort, she didn’t response and was a bit on the plain side late. Back to 1000m I like and outside the favourite, this isn’t an overly deep contest.

Back Me

8 Sioux Spirit (Bet Now: $3.00) clearly on top for me. Jerome Hunter trained filly that has been strong in two career runs, debuting with an impressive win at Geelong before going to Flemington where she was game in defeat but had no answers for the finale of Losesomewinmore. That form clearly reads well for this and gets Craig Williams to steer.

Danger

Back to 1200m I find interesting with 1 Bossy Nic (Bet Now: $3.50) but she does have a bit of quality about her. She ran over 1400m at Caulfield a few weeks ago where she got into a decent spot behind the speed and tried hard but seven furlongs at that level just found her out late in the piece behind Miss Aria. Back to 1200m with fresh legs, she appeals, especially with the claim.

Long Shot

5 Treasurway (Bet Now: $8.50) is certainly capable with her best. She comes here a few weeks between runs since contesting the Proud Miss at Morphettville where she was outclassed on paper but far from disgraced in defeat behind Boognish. Likely drifts back from the gate but with a drag into the race, she can launch at them late.

Back Me

5 Written In Code (Bet Now: $3.60) looks a good thing to close out the meeting. Annabel Neasham trained mare that resumes, having not raced since Oct 2 at Warwick Farm when a notable drifter in betting but closed off with real purpose late, just missing out on the win when second to Jedibeel. Jumpout work at Pakenham has been strong, she’ll sit off the tempo and with class, I think she wins.

Danger

12 Shaime (Bet Now: $4.60) is a daughter of Turffontein for Cliff Brown that resumes. She is first up, having not raced since March 16 at Caulfield on All Star Mile Day when attempting to lead throughout in the Mystic Journey but couldn’t quite see it through when fourth to Waltz On By. Jumpout work has been good and with home track advantage, rates highly.

Long Shot

2 Awapuni Princess (Bet Now: $16.00) is a knockout hope. She gave them a start and a beating to win fresh at Caulfield before going down the Flemington straight where she wasn’t quite as dynamic and plain late behind Niance. Off the first up effort, and previous form, she is good enough to threaten.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 5 Written In Code

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 4 Famoso

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 1 Fission

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 4, 7, 9, 10

Leg Two: 1, 2, 7, 10

Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 8

Leg Four: 5

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful