1/6/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Eagle Farm, Kingsford Smith Cup day

A strong nine race program has been set down for Eagle Farm on Saturday, headlined by the QLD Derby (2400m) and the Kingsford Smith Cup (1300m). Weather is fine, track is soft (5) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Kingsford Smith Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Kingsford Smith Cup

Queensland Derby 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Queensland Derby

Back Me

5 Poison Chalice (Bet Now: $3.50) looks a good thing to start the meeting. Very nice horse for Paul Preusker that resumed down the Flemington straight where he was the first off the bit but he kept finding and savaged the line late in an excellent return. IMO, he is a Stakes class horse so he’s better than 85 grade and with luck from the gate, I think he’ll be too good.

Danger

7 Tenzing (Bet Now: $4.60) is one of the leading contenders for Tony Gollan. He got a 12/10 from Schiller when bolting up at Doomben two weeks ago, getting a sweet sit just off the speed before angling clear and he let down with nice change up speed to win impressively. If he runs up to that effort here, he’ll be around the mark I am sure.

Long Shot

9 Rising Pacific (Bet Now: $14.00) has to be given another look. I was quite keen on him at Doomben two weeks back but he got back in a very slowly run race and just never got involved, finishing down the track behind stablemate Tenzing. I think with a more positive ride, onto the bigger track, he can run a much improved race.

Back Me

12 Geriatrix (Bet Now: $12.00) for me. Kiwi raider who is trying to get into the Stradbroke hence why he is also accepted for the Fred Best, but I dare say he runs here and then will go to the Gunsynd in two weeks time. His last start win at Arawa Park was dominant and the field had depth to it. Needs luck from the gate but he has an engine under the hood.

Danger

10 Warby (Bet Now: $4.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness for Tony Gollan. He ran at Doomben two weeks ago where he got back to near last in the run and did make up ground but was never really a winning factor behind Ang Pow. Hard fit now, 1400m on the bigger track, he appeals as one of the hardest to beat.

Long Shot

22 Blakmax (Bet Now: $16.00) is capable with his best. Tony Gollan trained gelding that ran behind Ang Pow at Doomben a fortnight back. He just did a little bit too much work from the wide gate and that sealed his fate late in the piece behind the Freedman galloper. His best is good enough. Just needs to show it on race day.

Back Me

9 Alegron (Bet Now: $18.00) looks like he is flying under the care of Bjorn Baker and third up at 2400m, he’s going to take beating here. He comes through the Chairmans from two weeks ago. He got back to near last in the run and while he was never a winning threat, he worked home with real purpose in a strong effort behind Spirit Ridge. Up to 2400m, good upside to come, bigger track, he’s a great gamble.

Danger

6 Hezashocka (Bet Now: $3.70) is on the quick back up for Price/Kent after racing last Saturday in the Doomben Cup where he was outclassed on paper but I thought he ran a very credible race in defeat given he was nearer the inside, quicksand, but still made up ground in a good effort. Up in trip again, but maps perfect and the depth isn’t as strong.

Long Shot

2 Knights Order (Bet Now: $21.00) brings class with him and that is going to carry him a long way. Good effort near the speed fresh in the Wagga Cup before going to the Chairmans where he did work to land on speed but even allowing for that, he was very plain late, finishing down the track. Up in trip and hard fit, his best is clearly good enough to spank these.

Back Me

15 Shock Em Ova (Bet Now: $3.20) looks to have come back in beast mode and for mine, can keep winning, getting his rating up and potentially stamp himself as a Caulfield Cup horse. The return a few weeks ago over 1400m at Caulfield…it was the win of a future Group l horse. He sat last, peeled widest, and yes, was in the best ground, but he spanked them, and keep in mind he was first up. He’s got a stack of improvement/upside, up to 1800m…good luck beating him.

Danger

4 Luncies (Bet Now: $11.00) is a class horse in this race and gets a good set up here. He resumed two weeks back in the Members where he got back to near last in the run and did make up headway in a good return behind Gringotts, beaten a few lengths. Fitter and up in trip, bigger track, class…appeals.

Long Shot

7 Knight’s Choice (Bet Now: $16.00) looks to have come back in really good order and should take a power of beating against these. He resumed in the Members two weeks ago over the mile where he got into a decent spot off the speed and tracked up with purpose but just didn’t have the finale to go with Gringotts, but stayed on strongly to run second. Fitter and up in trip, bigger track, really like him here as a key chance.

Back Me

7 Can’t Recall One (Bet Now: $14.00) is a gelding I have enormous time for. Stuart Kendrick trained youngster that looked a Champagne horse earlier in the Autumn but the stable avoided temptation and instead focused on this and the JJ Atkins. Loved his recent trial at Deagon and with good upside, he’ll be very strong late…I think he only runs well.

Danger

1 Broadsiding (Bet Now: $3.40) is the class factor and class will carry him a long way. He got better as the prep went on in the Sydney Autumn, culminating in a win in the Champagne at Randwick. Freshened up for this and his tick over trial at Randwick was a lovely piece of work. Grand Final is two weeks away, but he is the class.

Long Shot

18 Jemoma Alpilage (Bet Now: $34.00) is a nice filly for Kevin Kemp and is one of the knockout hopes. She comes through the Ken Russell at the Sunshine Coast where she got into a tricky spot in inferior ground but kept finding the line and was strong late in the piece when a close up fourth. Racing like 1400m suits…does she have the quality? I don’t think so, but I am not dismissing her.

Back Me

7 Schwarz (Bet Now: $5.00) is a few weeks between runs for John O’Shea since a dominant all the way win in the Hawkesbury Guineas, where he got complete control in front and was too good in a very sharp display. He’s always threatened to be a good horse and now his confidence is up, good racing style, he’ll take a power of beating.

Danger

17 Stefi Magnetica (Bet Now: $3.20) brings the A1 form of WFA so she has to be given serious respect. She resumed in the Doomben 10,000 and you can make a case to say she should have been right in the finish had she been able to make her run out wide vs cutting back inside. Natural improvement, strong form…appeals big time.

Long Shot

15 Abounding (Bet Now: $14.00) is ticking along very nicely for Rob Heathcoate and is one of the leading contenders. She comes through the 3YO race from two weeks back at Doomben. She did a bit of early work from the wide gate to land on speed and was there to win, looking it for a few strides, but couldn’t quite see it through late in the piece when third to Amur. Was 1000m to 1350m, so now with that run under the belt, 1400m suits.

Back Me

Very keen on 1 I Wish I Win (Bet Now: $3.80). He ran in the Doomben 10,000, several weeks between runs, and yes was pretty much given every chance by J Mac, but drew inside, had to come through the worst ground and really, was only beaten on the line. Better for the run, traditional two weeks between runs and up to 1300m, firmer deck, Blinkers…good luck beating him I suggest.

Danger

2 Think About It (Bet Now: $6.00) returns to sprint racing and I think is the clear threat. He was tried as a miler in the Sydney Autumn and was solid without setting the world on fire, with excuses I felt. Been given a break to revert to sprinting, trial was good and he was outstanding in this race when winning last year.

Long Shot

3 Tuvalu (Bet Now: $19.00) will jump on the bunny and prove tough to get past. Outstanding winner of the Wangoom during the Warrnambool Carnival, lumping the big weight on the wet track, leading throughout and was just too classy. Has eyes on this and the Stradbroke, but will press forward here and is tough.

Back Me

18 Autumn Angel (Bet Now: $2.60) brings the class factor and looks cherry ripe for this. Dominant win of the ATC Oaks before going to the Rough Habit, where she just looked a tad rusty, but was good late behind Tannhauser. This is a Grand Final for her, proven at 2400m and has the weight pull being a filly. One of the hardest to beat.

Danger

1 Tannhauser (Bet Now: $4.00) is one of the hardest to beat. He was a strong winner of the Rough Habit and yes, helped by a 12/10 from J Mac, but even allowing for that, the win was impressive. He was a few weeks between runs there so with good room for improvement, he’s the main threat and the other key winning chance.

Long Shot

8 Sonofdec (Bet Now: $23.00) is a horse I am not going to entirely dismiss here despite bringing inferior form. He comes through a Midway at Scone over 1700m but the arrogance of the win was something else, giving them a start and an absolute beating, running great late splits in winning. Jumps straight to 2400m, but gee he looks a nice horse and will run well at odds.

Back Me

Leaning towards 2 Comrade Rosa (Bet Now: $5.50) in the get out. Tony Gollan trains this mare, who resumed several weeks ago in the Victory Stakes where she was quite strong against the pattern in defeat behind impressive winner Antino, beaten 4.6L but given the way the track played, WFA against the boys, her run had merit. Maps perfect, fresh legs and back to Mares grade, she appeals big time.

Danger

13 Enterprise Pomme (Bet Now: $18.00) should love getting to 1200m. Kris Lees trained mare that comes through the Bright Shadow from two weeks ago at Doomben where she got back to near last in the run and while she was never a winning threat, her finale was very good I thought in defeat behind Aureus Angel. Like her up to 1200m and onto the bigger track, she’ll take holding out.

Long Shot

14 Bezique (Bet Now: $14.00) will land on speed and take running down. She comes through the Bright Shadow from a fortnight back. Sat on speed throughout under Willow and for the most part, she was hailed as the winner but couldn’t quite see it through, run down late by Aureus Angel. 1200m is a slight query but with her racing style, she’ll be hard to get past.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 1 I Wish I Win

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 18 Autumn Angel

LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 9 Alegron

Quaddie (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 7, 10, 14, 15, 17

Leg Two: 1

Leg Three: 1, 18

Leg Four: 2, 4, 13, 14

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